The Greatest Show on Earth, or at least the Greatest Show in Sport for 2018 is here, and like any major sporting tournament many people of varying football knowledge will be handing out their World Cup predictions to whoever that will listen.
There’s so many great websites, including this website, that have almost too much information for a person to read in time before the World Cup kicks off in order for one to make their World Cup predictions.
But if the 2010 World Cup taught us anything, it showed that you don’t necessarily have to be armed with an overload of facts to make bold, correct World Cup predictions. Sometimes you just have to go with your gut feel. Like Tipster extraordinaire Paul the Octopus from the tournament in South Africa. His record of 8 correct tips from 8 world cup predictions is proof using an alternative method can sometimes pay off.
So, in the spirit of Paul the Octopus, who sadly died within a few months of the conclusion of the 2010 World Cup, presented below is a bunch of alternative methods for making World Cup predictions.
USING AN ANIMAL LIKE PAUL THE OCTOPUS
Since it worked so well for Paul the Octopus, and so many have tried since, it would make perfect sense to start off some alternative World Cup predictions by using the closest, friendliest animal. In the case, it is the family pet dog.
METHOD: Placing a small dog biscuit in the boxes mark Home, Draw, and Away, the much loved Muttstradamus World Cup prediction was based on which biscuit was eaten first. Unlike Paul the Octopus who only did Germany games and the Final, our animal tipster offered up predictions for every single match, including the finals. Never fear, it was done over 3 days so not to make the dog sick.
FINAL FOUR Uruguay, England, Germany, and surprisingly Iran.
WINNER: Uruguay to beat Germany in the big match.
SURPRISE: Iran and England in the semi finals, and Spain dead last in group B.
AUSTRALIA: 3rd in group C.
Uruguay are the ultimate winner over Germany in the final. No luck for Australia, but even less for one of the big guns in Spain. One could say then that the bark is better than the bite for Uruguay this World Cup.
ARE WE SMARTER THAN A TWO AND FIVE YEAR OLD?
They say never to work with children or animals, so since the first set of World Cup predictions we used the family pet, it isn’t much more out of the question to use some nearby children. Thankfully for this part of the Alternative World Cup predictions experiment, we had two children more than keen to select the winner of the World Cup.
METHOD: The children selected mainly on flags of the teams, or some of the country names they could recognise. How could it go wrong?
FINAL FOUR: Portugal, Brazil, Spain, Belgium
WINNER: Brazil beat Belgium
SURPRISE: France don’t get past Group stage, Germany knocked out in R16.
AUSTRALIA: Win group C but knocked out by Portugal in the quarter finals.
Perhaps the kids know more you would think, as the final four selected are a very realistic chance to do just that. Great for Australia too.
BEST BETS
Since we’ve used animal and children it is time to get back into some more statistical methods of making World Cup predictions, and for this part of the Alternative World Cup prediction experiment the odds of the World Cup fixtures and tournament have been used.
METHOD: The head to head odds are used to determine the group match winner, with the favourite getting the prediction, unless the difference is within 10% then a draw is declared. For the knockout stages the tournament odds are used as there are currently no markets.
FINAL FOUR: France, Brazil, Spain and Germany.
WINNER: Brazil beat Germany.
SURPRISE: Nil.
AUSTRALIA:Dead last in group C.
Using odds, and mainly favourites throws up a reasonably predictable result with the final four being France, Brazil, Spain and Germany. Anyone can back a favourite though.
A BUNCH OF VARIOUS WORLD CUP STATS
Since odds aren’t completely foolproof, another method is using on field stats has been used to get World Cup predictions. Featuring statistics from World Cup Qualifying, performance at World Cups, and our own metric of two years worth of internationals corrected by FIFA Rankings.
METHOD: The stats of average points from qualifying, the goal difference in qualifying, the average points from each team’s performance at past World Cups based on three points for a win and one for a draw, and an enhanced in house creation metric of each team’s record in Internationals for the past two years were ranked 32 to 1, and all ranking points added up. The most overall points win each game.
FINAL FOUR: France, Brazil, Spain and Germany.
WINNER: This time Brazil beat Spain in the final.
SURPRISE: Nigeria beat Argentina to second place in group D.
AUSTRALIA: No points and at the bottom of group C.
A similar story to the Best Bets method as the final four sees France, Brazil, Spain and Germany. And Brazil win.
NON SPORT RELATED NATION STATS
Perhaps we haven’t spread ourselves wide enough to find alternative ways to pick a World Cup Winner, by only including sport related stats or children/animals. Why couldn’t we use a few measures for each country off the field, under the theme of a happy country is a good country.
METHOD: Used three key stats ( IHDI – Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index, GDP, Murder Rate ) and ranked them best to worst, and then handed out 32 to one point based on their position. The higher total ranking points gets the game.
FINAL FOUR: Australia, England, Spain, Japan
WINNER: Japan beat England in the final.
SURPRISE: Russia win group G
AUSTRALIA: Aussies beat Spain to finish third.
THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH PODCAST
Need another way of finding a World Cup winner? Well, we have been busy toiling away with a World Cup podcast, and perhaps there’s enough information in there to help you pick a winner.
Listen now via Soundcloud.
