The biggest thing in rugby league is almost here, and no we’re not talking about Nelson Asofa-Solomona on stilts, it’s State of Origin time. As with any major sporting tournament or celebration The Gurgler is here to overthink and over-analyse it all with stats that may or may not matter. So talking about all that, here is our 2024 State of Origin Game 1 Stats Summary.
Whether the NRL going into reserve grade mode for the next two month is worth the State of Origin hype is debatable but diving into our 2024 State of Origin Game 1 Stats Summary certainly isn’t. We have stats, visuals, historic H2H plus we used as many stats as we think are useful to predict not only the winner, but the score. Who else offers such a service. Enjoy.
2024 State of Origin Game 1 Stats Prediction
Here’s our big ticket item before you get distracted and get sucked into the clickbait on Fox Sports – our Game 1 Predictions – which uses a lot of the stats we’ll dive into later.
2024 State of Origin Game 1 Stats Summary
Here we dive into the history and stats of the first game of the Origin series and games at the Sydney Olympic Stadium.
State of Origin Game 1 Record
- Queensland have won the last three games at the Sydney Olympic Stadium which doubles as Game One of the series (2015, 2016, 2022). The Maroons have got on to win the series on all three of those occasions.
- Three of the last four Game One not at neutral venues have been won by the away side.
- Queensland hold the H2H of 6-5 for Game One of a season that is a leap year. Ten of those 11 times, the G1 winner has won the series.
Does a Game 1 Winner win the Series?
Well, yes they do. Mostly. One side does do it better than the other, but here are some super stats to go with.
- When Queensland have won the first game of the Series – the Maroons have gone on to win the Series 82% of the time. For NSW that win ratio is lower at 70%. (1980/81 excluded for first game/series calculations).
- It’s 76% overall for a G1 winner to win the series, but that drops to 72% when the first game is played at a regular home ground (not neutral).
- It’s 100% for G1 winners to win the Series since Covid in 2020.
- Starting in 2006, the last seven times that the first game has been played at the Olympic Stadium, Queensland have gone on to win the series that year. Regardless of if they won the first game or not.
State of Origin Record @ Sydney Olympic Stadium
NSW definitely hold the upper hand overall, but there’s a few quirks.
- NSW Blues hold a commanding 20-10 H2H record over Queensland at the Sydney Olympic Stadium. But……….every year the Maroons have won a game at the ground, regardless of game number, they have won the series.
- The last four games between these sides when the Sydney Olympic Stadium is the first game of the series the average total points scored is 19.2.
State of Origin Other Facts
- The average margin when the Sydney Olympic Stadium is the first game of the series is 6.1, less if you remove NSW’s 28 point win in 2002.
- Our records show that there is only three points in it over the history of State of Origin – with NSW leading 2167 v 2164.
2024 State of Origin Game 1 Best Bet
Why waste all these stats without having a little responsible flutter. So here is our choicest Game One State of Origin multi.
MARGIN TRI BET – Either side by 8 points or less
TOTAL POINTS – Under 36.5
ANYTIME TRY SCORER – Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
ANYTIME TRY SCORER – Stephen Crichton
$1 return = $45
2024 State of Origin Game 1 Player Stats
If that’s not enough, here’s a H2H Player Stat comparison for the entire starting squads for both Queensland and NSW.
