A new season of the greatest Football League competitions in the world is almost here, with the Championship, League One and League Two about to start their 46 game journeys. Like the Premier League, but even more genuine, before the reality of the season long slog of undying loyalty hits and your team disappoints or delights here are our 2023-24 English Football League Season Predictions.
We have taken a bunch of stats from last season, added some current squad value stats, and added a few variations to come up with a predicted table for the 2023-24 English Football League Seasons for all three tiers.
A fuller explanation will feature at the end, and we throw in some thoughts to accompany the numbers, but for now, find out where your team will finish according to us.
2023-24 English Football League Season Predictions
Championship
IPSWICH PROMOTION PARTY AND SURPRISE LEICESTER RETURN
First of all we have to declare our allegiance to Ipswich Town, but point out that our love for the Tractor Boys had nothing to do with our predictions seeing them finish in the top two. After seasons of mediocrity in the Championship and hoping for something they difference they delivered a few seasons ago with a poor relegation season, and a four year stint in the third tier. But armed with a former Man Utd academy coach, they were simply magnificent last season and we see that continuing all the way to the Premier League.
Leicester are a club we didn’t expect to see top the Championship predictions, because of the sales of their best players. Who knows, maybe our predictions are crap. But the Foxes will be armed with a tonne of cash with the EPL parachute money and sales of James Maddison, and Harvey Barnes they have a net transfer spend of +62M plus parachute money. They have spent wisely on some solid signing so far, so they could build on their squad like no other team can. And they still have Jamie Vardy.
AN INTERESTING TOP SIX MIX
The rest of the promotion hopefuls according to our season predictions are a heady mix. Middlesbrough were probably the favourites for promotion last season season of the playoff teams but fell short. Still, Michael Carrick did a good job, and third is their reward according to us this season.
Former Netflix superstars Sunderland make the top six again, joined by League One high flyers from last season Plymouth Argyle who not only have a great name but scored over 100 points in the League One title winning season. Swansea are the other team, and probably made this list on the back of the last season form, which according to our stats were the third best team for point per game in the last two months behind Plymouth and Ipswich.
BIRMINGHAM SURVIVE AGAIN
QPR had the fourth worst average of points per game from Christmas onwards in 2022/23, and they just survived, but surely those numbers means they will struggle this season, and our predictions agree.
Joining the R’s is Rotherham and Cardiff. Rotherham is probably no surprise given they do bounce from League One to the Championship frequently, and Cardiff finished just one place above relegation last season, so with the quality of the teams coming up from League One, their demise should be no surprise. Aaron Ramsey singing or not.
Our prediction also sees Birmingham City survive one more time, like they seem to do every year.
League One
PETERBOROUGH YO-YO BACK, BARNSLEY MAKE UP FOR LAST SEASON
Peterborough have bounced back between the second and third tiers of English football for a while now, and recently in the past three seasons changed divisions at the end of each seasons. Our predictions says another change is coming this season after relegation from the Championship last season.
Talking of last season, Barnsley will be hoping to go one step better than the extra time loss to Sheffield Wednesday in the playoff final, and our predictions think they will.
LEAGUE ONE MUSICAL CHAIRS
Our predictions for League One has three League One clubs from last season and one promoted side to go down.
Shame for Carlisle, promoted via the playoff finals, as their 2023-24 jersey looks like one of the better ones for the upcoming Football League season.
Port Vale getting relegated will make Robbie Williams unhappy, but we’re sure he won’t read this. Also musical, Shrewsbury Town, the team made famous from Spinal Tap bassist Derek Smalls are going down too. Cambridge University has a Faculty of Music, so that completes the League One musical-themed relegation party at year’s end.
League Two
LAST YEAR’S NEARLY TEAMS GOING UP
The three automatic promoted teams for the 2023-24 season have come from the top five teams from last season’s League Two that weren’t promoted.
Stockport Count (4th) make amends for losing to Carlisle in the playoffs by winning the league. Salford (7th) and Mansfield (8th) make the step up to League One automatically according to our predictions.
THE WREXHAM HOLLYWOOD STORY CONTINUES
Wrexham have become one of the EFL’s most known teams overnight after promotion into League Two last season, with the club now being run and promoted by Hollywood stars.
Our 2023-24 predictions for League Two has Wrexham finishing in the top seven, which means they make the playoffs and gives them every chance of a second promotion in two years.
It certainly would enhance the next series of Welcome to Wrexham if they do. And we think they will. Gives us a chance to show off our 30 year old Wrexham shirt.
WIMBLE-DOWN AND FOREST GREEN OVER
Sadly for two of the Football League’s most interesting clubs, our Predictions has AFC Wimbledon and Forest Green overs going down. As fans of AFC Wimbledon it would make us very sad to see their tremendous comeback story take this step, and would prefer Milton Keynes Dons to take their place instead, but their 22nd place in last year’s League Two season was a warning.
For Forest Green their green credentials have never been in doubt, but League One was a step too far and they finished dead last. Our prediction model sees them replicating that our dropping back into the National League for the first time since 2017.
RATINGS METHOD
So here are the data fields we used to determine the above predictions. Plus a factor for fields which we felt were higher than others. Plus a discount to be taken off the promoted sides as they are playing much harder opposition in 2023-24.
Points per Game – Season – 3 x
Points per Game – From Xmas – 2 x
Points per Game – From March
Points per Game – From April
Goals per Game
Goals per Game @ Home – 2 x
Expected Goals per Game
Expected Goals vs Goals Scored per Game
Shots per Game
Shots on Target per game – 2 x
Squad Value – 5 x
Squad Value Change
Promoted Clubs: A flat rate of 30% discount off Burnley as Champions, and a sliding scale for the promoted clubs based on their Championship table position last season.
