The long wait is almost over, and a fresh new football season with fresh new hopes for all fans is nearly here. And before the reality of the 38 gameweek slog hits and your team disappoints or delights here are our 2023-24 Premier League Season Predictions.
We have taken a bunch of stats from last season, added some current squad value stats, and added a few variations to come up with a predicted table for the 2023-24 Premier League season.
A fuller explanation will feature at the end, and we throw in some thoughts to accompany the numbers, but for now, find out where your team will finish according to us.
2023-24 Premier League Season Predictions
A PROPER TITLE FIGHT?
Our 2023-24 Premier League Season Predictions has Manchester City and Arsenal separated by just three points, and we will go further and predict the title going down to the last game of the season.
Although, a more likely situation is the second last gameweek of the season is the killer. Arsenal lose away to Manchester United while Manchester City beat Fulham to have a three point lead into the final week. But with the points difference so tight the title race goes into the final day, with Arsenal flogging Everton and sealing their relegation, but Man City winning and keeping their title.
ANGE REVOLUTION FALLS JUST SHORT
With the battle for the top two spots a race of it’s own, our 2023-24 Premier League Season Predictions see the battle for the remaining Champions League spots as a little tighter.
In fact the teams 3rd to 5th will be split by a game each, with the positions being decided on the second last gameweek.
Spurs will improve according to our predictions model, and we genuinely hope so given they have an Australian coach, but 5th will have to do for now, especially given how poor they were at times last season and that Harry Kane looks likely to leave.
Ange will transform Spurs into a team everyone likes and become winners again, but not quite blow everyone away too early.
“CHELSEA 10TH? YOUR PREDICTIONS ARE CRAP…..”
All prediction models have failures, and outliers that don’t quite work, and so our prediction for Chelsea to finish 10th on 51 points is probably not how their season is going to end. Or their fans, US owners and newly installed ex Spurs manager will be hoping so.
10th is possibly unfair, but we based most of the data categories on last year’s performance, which may point out just how bad Chelsea’s last season was.
We tried to add multipliers in for squad size and change to give Chelsea a boost it will normally get, but it still only brought them up to 10th, so it’s their fault for being so poor last season.
FULL TIME FOR EVERTON
It’s been a slow drop towards the exit for Everton, and our 2023-24 Premier League Season Predictions sadly has the Toffees gong down in 18th place. Relegated on the last day of the season, after coming close the last few seasons.
Only back 2018-19 Everton had finished in the top eight for the third season running, but in the subsequent four seasons it has been 12th, 10th, 16th, and 17th. A worrying slide towards the second division. Which would be their first time in the second division since 1953-54.
Maybe that is harsh on Everton, but their 34 goals scored last season was luckily good enough to stay up, despite being lower than all three relegated teams. With Sean Dyche the manager for the start of the season, can anyone see the goal tally getting considerably bigger?
TWO UP ONE DOWN FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP
After last season saw all three teams stay up for the first time in the Premier League era, our 2023-24 Premier League Season Predictions has two of the three promoted teams staying up.
Burnley scored 101 points in last season’s Championship, won the title by 10 points and lost just three games under new manager Vincent Kompany, so even with the deduction we apply to our stats for a promoted team the new-look Burnley still survive comfortably with 49 points and in 11th place. They are no longer the grafting hard workers under Dyche, so an improved showing wouldn’t surprise.
Sheffield United weren’t quite as impressive as Burnley, but did beat third by 11 points in the Championship last season. They still have quite a few players left over from their last stint in the Premier League, so our predictions has them hanging on in fourth last.
Luton Town unfortunately are our last placed team, but given how small the club is, and how they look quite under-prepared for the Premier League, our predictions still gives them 31 points, which keeps them in the hunt to avoid relegation all the way to April. They may even do a Blackpool and be in the top four in the very early rounds.
RATINGS METHOD
So here are the data fields we used to determine the above predictions. Plus a factor for fields which we felt were higher than others. Plus a discount to be taken off the promoted sides as they are playing much harder opposition in 2023-24.
Points per Game – Season – 3 x
Points per Game – From Xmas – 2 x
Points per Game – From March
Points per Game – From May
Goals per Game
Goals per Game @ Home – 2 x
Expected Goals per Game
Expected Goals vs Goals Scored per Game
Shots per Game
Shots on Target per game – 2 x
Squad Value – 5 x
Squad Value Change
Promoted Clubs: A flat rate of 30% discount off Burnley as Champions, and a sliding scale for the promoted clubs based on their Championship table position last season.
