Football is just about to kick off for another season, and just before the Premier League comes along and takes up all the attention, the three lower divisions all begin their season this weekend. Which is why we offer up our usual look to the season ahead with 2022-23 English Football League Season Predictions.
Our 2022-23 English Football League Season Predictions are based on a pile of stats from last season, with consideration taken into account for squad improvement for the new season. How we work that out is at the end of this article for those interested.
Alongside our tips we offer up a bare minimum of knowledge for those who want to casually follow. We presume proper fans won’t be relying on us for season info.
The 2022-23 English Football League Season Predictions await your viewing and thoughts below.
2022-23 CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON PREVIEW
SEASON PREDICTION
We have Burnley to bounce straight back up, as they did last time they were relegated. Although the last time in the 70’s when they went up, down, up to the first division, there was a hefty down all the way to fourth tier. If they can hold onto Dwight McNeil and Maxwell Cornet they could do it easily.
Going with them is Sheffield United, formerly of the Premier League just a few seasons ago. Our stats sharpen the Blades from fifth last season to second and an automatic jump up.
The rest of the top six is a varied mix of former first division teams, two of the sides last visit to the top flight just pre-dates the Premier League. Out of the teams our stats have selected for 3rd to 6th we’re going for Luton Town to be the lucky side promoted.
Of the other teams coming down we have them knocking on the door of the finals but missing out. Both clubs have been regular yo-yo clubs.
Two of the bottom three – Reading and Birmingham – are teams that have flirted with relegation in the last few seasons, and eventually that luck runs out we say. The stats point to a surprise for the other relegated team in Blackburn – who finished 8th last season.
Happily for the promoted teams, we have none of them being cut.
QUICK HITS – ODDS
So our top selection Burnley is third in betting, but plenty of value. Much like any of our promotion chances. The betting shops agree with two of our bottom three selections.
QUICK HITS – TOP SIX SEASON 2022-23 KITS
Burnley have timed being sponsored by our favourite clothing shop in the world Classic Football Shirts – with unveiling a kit that is way more interesting for them than usual.
As fans of the simplicity of the Peru national kit and diagonal shapes in general, we love the Stoke City away shirt. Luton Town have a cracking kit this season with the home kit in our top five and the away one very close too. Coventry take up two spots with their home and away shirts for the season.
The shots of these kits have been taken from the excellent Football Kit Archive website.
QUICK HITS – ANYTHING ELSE?
Former Manchester City captain Vincent Kompany is the manager of Burnley. For those who missed the change late last season Nigel Pearson is manager of Bristol City.
This is the fourth time since 2015 that Norwich have arrived back from the Premier League.
Sunderland are back in the Championship for the first time since their Netflix documentary started and captured the season they were going to bounce straight back to the Premier League.
Watford start the season with a new manager – Rob Edwards who took Forest Green Rovers to the League Two title last season. He’s their 17th manager in ten seasons.
Major derbies ahead for the season:
- Cotton Mills Derby or El Lanclasico – Burnley v Blackburn
- West Lancashire derby – Preston North End v Blackpool
- Severnside derby – Bristol City v Cardiff City
- South Wales derby – Cardiff City v Swansea City
- Beds–Herts or M1 Derby – Watford v Luton Town
2022-23 LEAGUE ONE SEASON PREVIEW
SEASON PREDICTION
As a casual fan of AFC Wimbledon it pains to say taht our season predictions came up with Milton Keynes to top League One, and with quite a gap too. It’s not a stretch for them to win it though, as they finished third last season, failing to get promoted automatically by one point.
Our stats point to the next team from last season’s ladder and big club Sheffield Wednesday to join Milton Keynes automatically after finishing fourth last season.
Seems obvious to pick the next best teams from last season, so the rest of the playoff hopefuls are an interesting mix. Just one of our third to sixth crew featured in the top six last season – Wycombe – but can they do it without our favourite footballer of all time Adebayo Akinfenwa?
We’re going to go boring and pick Portsmouth to be the third promoted side from that list of four.
As a lifelong Ipswich Town supporter we are disappointed and not surprised in equal measure that our stats say they won’t be going up again. Ipswich never seem to feature in any top stats, so their mediocrity will continue again.
Going down we have a wide mix of teams. We have one Championship club doing a double drop and despite their off field troubles it isn’t Derby County but Barnsley. Also joining them, according to our stats is last year’s League Two Champions Forest Green Rovers, which won’t be helped by their title winning manager leaving to be fired at Watford in a few months time. Smallish clubs Morecambe and Fleetwood Town are the other teams our stats will drop.
QUICK HITS – ODDS
The odds agree with our promoted sides as they both feature in the top five of betting.
Nice to see Ipswich Town in the top five of anything we guess.
Plenty of value for Cheltenham who we say finishes top six.
QUICK HITS – TOP SIX SEASON 2022-23 KITS
Not just because we’re trying to crowbar Ipswich into a top list, both of their offerings this season are quality and selling well according to reports. Obviously we like a black shirt with aqua, but the Plymouth third isn’t anywhere near as good as the black, green and gold one from last season. Oxford makes the list, and possibly Shrewsbury is included due for Spinal Tap reasons.
The shots of these kits have been taken from the excellent Football Kit Archive website.
QUICK HITS – ANYTHING ELSE?
Key rivalry returns with Peterborough and Cambridge to face each other this season.
Ipswich Town’s kit continue to be sponsored by Ed Sheeran who is a fan.
Wycombe manager Gareth Ainsworth is just two months shy of ten years in charge of the Chairboys. A decent effort considering 53 of the current 92 English Football managers have less than year current tenure at their club.
2022-23 LEAGUE TWO SEASON PREVIEW
SEASON PREDICTION
The top three our stats say for automatic promotion include a relegated side from League One (AFC Wimbledon) and in Sutton United and Tranmere two teams that finished just outside the top seven.
Other teams vying for promotion according to our stats were all from League Two last season and inside the top 11.
There are no promoted candidates for the top seven, but at least neither with be relegated,
As for relegated the two teams selected by the data, two of the bottom three not relegated last season appear to be up for it in 2022-23.
QUICK HITS – ODDS
Plenty of value for our three automatic promotion candidates ranging from $17 – $26.
QUICK HITS – TOP THREE SEASON 2022-23 KITS
It’s sli pickings for League Tow if we’re honest, or maybe we’re too snobby. Either way we could only find three that tickle our fancy.
QUICK HITS – ANYTHING ELSE?
There is an Australian manager in League Two with Jon Brady in charge of Northampton Town.
Stockport County arrive from the National League. They have been on quite the journey. In the second tier halfway through the 2000’s, they dropped as low as the sixth tier within a decade, but are on the way back up now with consecutive promotions.
Harrogate Town manager Simon Weaver is the longest serving manager in the top four tiers with 13 Years and a couple of months.
Last season was AFC Wimbledon’s first ever relegation since the club formed in 2003.
2022-23 EFL FOOTBALL LEAGUE PREDICTIONS STATS
We’re surprised you’ve made it this far, but if you were in the market for knowing which stats we used to come up with the predictions here it is below.
PointsPerGame, GoalsScoredAll, PPG@H, GS@H , GoalsConceded@A, PPG Last6, GSPG Last6, 2ndHalfSeasonPPG, Change%1stHalfSeason, ManagerReignRank, Shots pg, On Target %, Key Passes, Who Scored Rating, Betting, TfrMarktValue, TfrMarktChange
With also a percentage increase applied to relegated sides and percentage reduction for promoted sides.
