Another Premier League season is almost here, and it is almost time to forget about last season and the Euros and look to the new season. So to focus on the new season here is our 2021-22 Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Rating for the season ahead.
Once again we have produced our own fixture difficulty ratings for the season ahead, based on a number of H2H an 2020-21 measures. These will be refreshed throughout the 2021-22 season.
The ratings go from 1 (easy) to 10 (bloody hell) for each game and are explained in details later on.
For the Fantasy Football fanatic to the fan of a team trying to look at their last six run of games due to pre season nerves about relegation to your average football nerd, our 2021-22 Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Rating has something for almost everyone.
2021-22 Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Rating – Quick Points @ GW9
GOOD RUN – Chelsea continue the golden run of games against the current bottom three. They belted Norwich 7-0, but Newcastle and Burnley should be a little tougher.
BIG TEST 1st LEG FAIL – Man Utd had a pretty good run to start the season, and their first game against a big six opposition ended badly last weekend v Liverpool.
MAKING A BEE LINE FOR THE TOP – Brentford have a good run coming up, a rich reward for outstanding performances against big clubs Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. They now play the current bottom three, and a good run here may give them enough padding to stay up. Time for FPL players to load up on Toney.
2021-22 Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Rating – Next Three Games
So here are the next three game difficulty details.
2021-22 Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Rating – Season
Here is the big 38 game visual for fixtures difficulty for your team this season.
This will be updated as the season continues, and you will start to see more extremes of 1 and 10 rated games as new form takes precedence.
2021-22 Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Rating – Next Six Games
Sometimes a three game run isn’t quite enough, so how about some details on the first six games too.
2021-22 Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Rating – Expected v Actual Points
So we take our difficulty rating and compared each team’s against each other and work ou a reasonable difference to assign three points to a side who on paper (and according to our difficulty rating) should win.
We also have a window where the ratings are close enough to warrant predicting a draw.
Then throw in the actual points scored this season and you’ll get a taste at who is performing and underperforming.
2021-22 Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Rating – Data Explained
So for each measure we have taken the team’s performance to the metric and the relative performance compared to their opponent. And then even overlapped with each team’s home and away record from last season.
From GW3 we will add stats from the 2021-22 season at the expense of 2020-21 data which is currently used.
Metrics used were:
Points per Game for 2020-21 Season
Points per Game for 2020-21 Season – Home / Away
Points per Game for 2020-21 Season – Last 6 Form
Points per Game for 2020-21 Season – Last 6 Form Home / Away
Points per Game for 2020-21 Season – Last 3
Both own PPG and gap to opponent.
H2H All Time
H2H All Time Home/Away
H2H Premier League Only
H2H Since 2000
Plus special multiplier factored in whether team is going better at home or away.
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