Rivalry Round Part One might be done and dusted but that doesn’t mean there’s not another set of seven games this weekend that aren’t worth talking about nor is our 2021 Intrust Super Cup Round 5 Preview & Tips a waste of time.
There will still be a Milford for the casual viewers to enjoy, and elsewhere there’s a load of great games. In-form Tigers v more in-form Wynnum, and Norths head to Cairns for more than a tourism industry boosting journey but to maintain their 100% start to the season. And the traditional Anzac Day clash at Burleigh against the Hunters.
So enjoy the stats and barely interesting facts in our Intrust Super Cup Round 5 Preview.
2021 Intrust Super Cup – Round 5 Tips
As ever we have attempted to get some expert tips to accompany each weekly preview.
This season we feature no less than the CEO of competition sponsor Intrust Super Brendan O’Farrell for another season. We also have tips from Intrust Super Cup guru Matt Crowhurst who knows a lot more than most about Queensland’s premier rugby league competition.
Less interesting is that we also supply our own tips.
BRENDAN O’FARRELL – CEO INTRUST SUPER
IPSWICH JETS to beat Central Capras
NORTHS DEVILS to beat Northern Pride
REDCLIFFE DOLPHINS to beat Tweed Heads Seagulls
SOUTHS LOGAN MAGPIES to beat Mackay Cutters
PNG HUNTERS to beat Burleigh Bears
TOWNSVILLE BLACKHAWKS to beat Sunshine Coast Falcons
WYNNUM SEAGULLS to beat Brisbane Tigers
MATT CROWHURST – ISC GURU
Coming soon.
THE GURGLER – MEDIOCRE WEBSITE
CENTRAL CAPRAS to beat Ipswich Jets
NORTHS DEVILS to beat Northern Pride
REDCLIFFE DOLPHINS to beat Tweed Heads Seagulls
SOUTHS LOGAN MAGPIES to beat Mackay Cutters
PNG HUNTERS to beat Burleigh Bears
TOWNSVILLE BLACKHAWKS to beat Sunshine Coast Falcons
BRISBANE TIGERS to beat Wynnum Seagulls
CURRENT LEADERBOARD
BRENDAN O’FARRELL – Season 68% 19/28 – Last Week 4/7
THE GURGLER – Season 68% 19/28 – Last Week 5/7
MATT CROWHURST – Season 57% 16/28 – Last Week 4/7
2021 Intrust Super Cup – Round 5 Stats & Preview
Here is where we go through each game on offer this weekend with the teams, stats and points of interest to get into your local team this weekend.
Round 5 Teams originally published on QRL website.
SATURDAY 2:10PM IPSWICH JETS v CENTRAL CAPRAS
(GAME ON KAYO FREEBIES)
THOUGHTS
Just the one point between these sides so far in 2021 but it has to be said that the Capras lack of wins looks more impressive on paper than the Jets 0/4, not just because they have a result other than a loss, but their losses are tight and have been in front in the second half v Redcliffe and Mackay again last weekend.
We’d hate to say it is all because of the PNG recruits because of our terrible PNG bias, but the addition of Nixon Putt to any side will improve it, and he proved by getting among the try scorers last weekend.
Going with stats from before 2021 this looks like a Jets win. The Capras haven’t beaten Ipswich at North Ipswich Reserve going back to 2014 (when our records can be bothered going back to) but Central win just 10% of their games in greater Brisbane.
As for 2021 stats Ipswich have scored the fewest points and conceded the most, while Central Capras are the only team from 8th down to have conceded less than 100 points so far this season. Not bad for a side who haven’t won a game yet.
PREDICTION
Central by 4
BETTING (2021 Season)
Jets $101 (+$44) Capras $151 (+$50)
SATURDAY 5:30PM – NORTHERN PRIDE v NORTHS DEVILS
THOUGHTS
Two teams in blue that had mildly surprising wins last weekend.
Northern Pride got the better of their more fancied (and well stocked) northern neighbours Townsville. Meanwhile at a packed Davies Park the Devils spoiled the Anthony Milford Appreciation Day with a great performance that underlined their 100% start to the season.
The Devils hooker Danny Levi caught our eye at Davies Park on Sunday, and must have also attracted the same eyebrow-raising from the Broncos coaching staff as he is now part of the NRL squad. They could certainly do with his zip from dummy half.
Norths have no superstars like their opponents did on Sunday but they have quietly gone about their 2021 season, leading the points scored stat, and going at 33+ points per game. Not bad when they have played competition heavyweights Easts, Redcliffe and Townsville.
The Northern Pride’s only loss this season has come against the only other side with a 100% record this season – Wynnum. Although that was at home which has been their only game at Barlow Park so far this season. In 2019 their home record was 4 wins and 8 losses, and their winning record v Brisbane sides at home since 2014 is under 50%.
PREDICTION
Norths by 10
BETTING (2021 Season)
Pride $26 (-$8) Devils $7 (-$1)
SATURDAY 6:00PM – REDCLIFFE DOLPHINS v TWEED HEADS SEAGULLS
THOUGHTS
Redcliffe have kept things pretty tight this season, their 2-2 record sees them sneak into the top eight on points difference which is only -4 points. They are 100% at home this season, but that win was a little lucky receiving a late penalty goal v Central Capras.
The Dolphins have won four in a row v Tweed Heads and four in a row at home with their 74-6 thrashing over Tweed in 2016 being the first in that sequence. That day Darren Nicholls scored 30 points himself with two tries and 11 goals.
Redcliffe also lead the H2H on a Saturday with a record of 3-0.
Tweed Heads have made a great start to 2021 and seeing off their Gold Coast rivals in Rivlary week is a nice bonus. But all of their wins have come at Piggabeen and they have lost their only game away from home. Albeit against their flockbuster rivals Wynnum who are undefeated.
Not a bad form line then, and a tight contest awaits at Dolphin Oval.
Reece Walsh is not named in the Dolphins line up having been included in the NZ Warriors squad for the Anzac Day clash in Melbourne. It has been a whirlwind season so far for him, as he started off the season as a Broncos aligned Wynnum player, and just three games later was playing against the Seagulls for Redcliffe and now perhaps in the NRL.
PREDICTION
Dolphins by 2
BETTING (2021 Season)
Dolphins $11 (+$2) Tweed $9 (-$2)
SATURDAY 6:00PM – MACKAY CUTTERS v SOUTHS LOGAN MAGPIES
THOUGHTS
The above graph shows that this is the most lop-sided game this weekend, with our records showing no wins for the Cutters over Souths Logan since 2014 (as far back as our records bother with for now).
Souths Logan weren’t able to ride on the wave of expanded support last weekend as the fans turned up big time to watch the Magpies debut of Anthony Milford, as they went down to Norths.
But this weekend in Mackay is a chance for Milford to impress again, after an Intrust Super Cup debut that was neither terrible nor great. Certainly not enough to dislodge the current Broncos halves.
There’s plenty of points in the Magpies, having outscored six teams above them despite sitting 11th on the ladder.
Mackay are coming into the weekend on the back of their first win of the season after defeating the Capras in Rivalry Round last weekend. They are yet to win at home this season though and their record at home to Brisbane sides isn’t world beating.
PREDICTION
Souths Logan by 8 points
BETTING (2021 Season)
Cutters $51 ($0) Magpies $17 (+$2)
SUNDAY 2:10PM BRISBANE TIGERS v TWEED HEADS SEAGULLS
BROADCAST GAME
THOUGHTS
The Big Anzac Day clash is on Sunday which is actually Anzac Day and will be a hard fought clash no doubt. The Bears hold the overall record on Anzac Day 4-2 and have also nabbed the last two games on Anzac Day. The Hunters will be looking to improve on the 56-4 loss in the last Anzac Day clash.
Talking of last Anzac Day, this will be five eighth Watson Boas’ last game for the Hunters before he returns to the UK after being granted permission to start the Hunters season. Who will replace him will be a big question given the limited resources of the team having to camp on the Gold Coast.
The Hunters have been going very well with Boas in the side, and they are one of only two teams with a 3-1 record and sit third thanks to the superior for and against.
Talking of the against, PNG Hunters have the best defensive record going into this weekend at 17 points a game. Given Burleigh are at the other end of the table for points scored, it may not be a high scoring affair at Pizzey Park.
Last weekend saw the Hunters score a good win over their rivalry round opponents Sunshine Coast. You can follow our thoughts on the PNG Hunters match from last weekend in our Round Four Summary here.
Burleigh weren’t as successful against their rivals last weekend going down to Tweed Heads. But on the plus side the Bears are 1/1 at home this season.
PREDICTION
Hunters by 6
BETTING (2021 Season)
Bears $8 (+$1.50) Hunters $11 (-$2)
SUNDAY 4:00PM – TOWNSVILLE BLACKHAWKS v SUNSHINE COAST FALCONS
THOUGHTS
The Falcons two game winning streak came to an end last weekend against the Hunters and have a 2-2 record for the 2021 season so far like this weekend’s opponents.
Despite their 50% winning record the Blackhawks have a for and against that rivals the current top three, and both of their losses so far in 2021 has seen them let second half leads slip away. Thankfully for them the Falcons have won just one second half this season.
Townsville welcome back Jaelen Feeney and Joe Boyce this weekend which will always make their job easier.
The Falcons hold the H2H record over Townsville on a Sunday 3-2, with the figure reversed for games at Townsville. But Townsville’s record at home since their entry into the competition in 2015 is very good with a win rate of 76%.
PREDICTION
Blackhawks by 14
BETTING (2021 Season)
Blackhawks $8 (+$1) Falcons $9 (+$1)
SUNDAY 5:00PM – BRISBANE TIGERS v WYNNUM SEAGULLS
THOUGHTS
One rivalry round wasn’t good enough for Wynnum as they face their eastern neighbours the Tigers this weekend who have found some decent form now after a quiet start to the season.
No such quiet start for the Seagulls who are 100% and have really only been slowed down by the PNG Hunters in the second half of the opening round fixture this season. Although the wet weather was also a factor there.
Wynnum just edge the H2H record, and they have won the last game in Langlands Park in 2019.
Both teams have a great mix of NRL experience, consistent Intrust Super Cup performers and some exciting new talent, and the 5pm kick off on Sunday is public holiday ready for the folk that can make it to Langlands Park.
A good way to finish Round 5 of the Intrust Super Cup anyway.
PREDICTION
Tigers by 4
BETTING (2021 Season)
Tigers $9 (-$2) Wynnum $5.50 fav ($0)
