One of the great weekends in sport each year is about, one we genuinely look forward to every year, and so here is the big FA Cup 3rd Round Fixtures Predictions & Preview.
Luckily for the many football fans around the world, UK Football was given a Coronavirus lockdown reprieve recently, which means the FA Cup 3rd Round fixtures will go ahead. Perhaps not all given the recent cancellations in the lower leagues.
The FA Cup 3rd Round sees the battlers of Leagues One and Two and Non League who have survived the first two round and qualifying in some cases meet the Premier League and Championship big guns.
This means there are mismatches galore, and big chances for upsets. The only worry is the resting of players for most sides, making it hard to judge, but we will anyway.
We used various stats to come up with a computer predictions for each game this weekend (using the SNC3000 Super Computer), but will also ignore that and offer up our own predictions and a few barely interesting facts.
So enjoy the FA Cup 3rd Round Fixtures Predictions & Preview..
FA Cup 3rd Round Fixtures Points of Interest
Wanted to know the division break up for this weekend? Or the games with the highest difference between teams current ladder position?
Or the number of Non League teams left? Four.
Which of the teams in the FA Cup at this stage have scored the most average points per game from the last 10 seasons. The answer won’t surprise in general, but there are a few barely interesting team performances in the top and bottom scores.
Here are a few barely interesting facts for the weekend.
At least one League Two side will make it through to the fourth round, and a further 15 teams from outside the Premier League are guaranteed a spot in the next round. Covid pending.
FA Cup 3rd Round Fixtures Predictions – Friday
Two games kick of the 3rd Round of the FA Cup, and this used to be a night of regular upsets.
Sadly both of these games are the all Premier League games, which means a giant killing is not on offer. There’s only one other all EPL tie this weekend.
And Wolves-Crystal Palace is the game with the smallest difference in league position of all 32 games, just to kill off any joy.
It is what it is, and there’s more fun awaiting later in the weekend.
FEATURE MATCH – ASTON VILLA v LIVERPOOL
Liverpool are not quite the same team this season, and are fast proving this away from home where they recently lost 1-0 to Southampton and drew 0-0 with Newcastle on the road. They’ve only won twice away from home in the Premier League this season and their away form overall is only 11th best.
Although they have only lost twice away this season in the Premier League, one of those losses was to Aston Villa 7-2, the very team in the very location they are playing this weekend.
Aston Villa are only 13th best at home this season with last home game’s win over Crystal Palace 3-0 their first win since beating Liverpool. But Villa do have slightly more points per game at home this season than Liverpool do away in the Premier League.
It probably all boils down to which team take this more seriously and what team they put out. Liverpool have so many injuries they may not be able to rest too many, and if they do a full strength Aston Villa will be more than a match. Surely Klopp will give Salah and Mane a rest.
OUR PREDICTION – ASTON VILLA 1 LIVERPOOL 0
OTHER PREDICTIONS
WOLVES 1 CRYSTAL PALACE 0
FA Cup 3rd Round Fixtures Predictions – Saturday
With more than half the FA Cup 3rd Round fixtures to be played on Saturday, it is the main day to enjoy. With plenty of games on at the same time too, something sadly missing from the post Covid football era of one Premier League game at a time.
There’s a few upsets to be had, with any lower Premier League struggler given a chance to kick start their season or suffer more pain.
We think there’s at least three upsets ready to go here.
A few games stick out for ones to watch as Non League Boreham Wood take on Millwall on the back of four straight wins and the Championship side have won once in their last 13 games. Millwall do tend to have decent cup runs though.
Sheffield United’s miserable season could get a turnaround as they play third tier Bristol Rovers, but with only two points in the bank this Premier League season they are hard to tip. Although interestingly, Sheffield United have one of the best points per game in the FA Cup for the last ten seasons. Some of those were spent in the third tier from which they regularly annoyed higher ranked teams.
Our SNC3000 data predictions have Blackpool beating West Bromwich, which could happen given West Brom’s Premier League season so far, and a potential focus on surviving in the top league. There should be trouble for West Brom if they can’t beat a mid table League One.
There’s a London derby between Fulham and QPR with Fulham improving all the time in the Premier League and QPR not won in their last nine games.
Depending on the sides put out, Leicester may not find it easy against a Stoke side that are up to eighth. Although sadly, the Championship sides tend not to be at full strength either, so any potential upsets you are taking on faith.
There’s plenty of games that won’t get the TV timeslot featuring all lower division teams, but a win for these sides this round may see them get a dream tie next round. For prestige instead of money with current lockdowns in the UK.
FEATURE MATCH – BRISTOL ROVERS v SHEFFIELD UTD
42 positions apart in the Football League pyramid, but the Pirates or Gas of Bristol Rovers have a good chance of an upset here.
Not that Bristol Rovers league position is anything to worry about (18th in the third tier) but they have won three of their last four games, and have won six more games than Sheffield Utd this season, with three more draws.
Did you know that 18th Bristol Rovers are closer to the playoffs (6th place) in League One than Sheffield Utd are from the safety of fourth last.
It is for that reason, and a bunch of stats below that we say upset is on here. More misery for the Blades.
PREDICTION – BRISTOL ROVERS 1 SHEFFIELD UTD 0
FEATURE MATCH – QPR v FULHAM
The closest match in terms of distance from each other, and their stats aren’t far away from each other as well. One team of course in the harder league.
Fulham have turned it around in comparison to what was being served up earlier in the season.
Despite one win in six Fulham have only lost once in the their last six games, and on a run of four straight draws heading into this game.
QPR haven’t won any of their last nine games.
A 0-0 looked likely here, but tipping the result towards Fulham was the H2H record. Fulham are undefeated in five Cup clashes (4W 1D) but that one draw was at QPR.
QPR 0 FULHAM 1
FEATURE MATCH – BLACKPOOL v WEST BROM
Sam Allardyce has only made it past the the third round twice in his last eight attempts, and nothing seen at West Brom so far is showing that is a likely improvement against Blackpool.
West Brom themselves have a better record than the manager, only failing to make it into the fourth round of the FA Cup once in the last six seasons.
Although West Brom’s away last six form is better than their home form (3D 3L v 1W 5L), and some of their draws were against quality opposition like Liverpool, Blackpool’s recent home record is solid with four wins in the last five – the other result a draw. Blackpool only conceded in one of those five home games too.
One would think that there wouldn’t be too much resting here, and regardless we still give Blackpool a big chance of winning.
PREDICTION – BLACKPOOL 2 WEST BROM 0
OTHER PREDICTIONS AND QUICK BARELY INTERESTING FACT
LUTON 2 READING 1
Reading have only failed twice to make it to the fourth round since 2015, and both of those Round 3 losses were against Man Utd.
NORWICH 2 COVENTRY 0
The last time these teams met in a Cup was in 2016 in the League and Norwich won 6-1.
BOREHAM WOOD 0 MILWALL 0
This is the seventh time since 2012 that Non League Boreham Wood have made it into the FA Cup Proper but this is the only time in that run they have made it to the third round.
EVERTON 4 ROTHERHAM 0
Everton have scored exactly three goals in five of their six home games v Rotherham.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST 2 CARDIFF 0
These teams have met 57 times but only two of the matches have been in a cup competition and not since 1928. For the record Cardiff hold an impressive 31-15 H2H record v Nottingham Forest.
CHORLEY 0 (Wayne Rooney’s) DERBY COUNTY 3
Wayne Rooney is in charge of Wayne Rooney’s Derby County. And this is the fifth season in a row that Non League Chorley have made it into the FA Cup proper.
OLDHAM 0 BOURNEMOUTH 3
These teams have only met once in a Cup competition before in 1954 when Bournemouth won.
BLACKBURN 1 DONCASTER 1
There have been 11 goals in two cup meetings between these sides, and Blackburn have won both. The latest game was this season in the League Cup.
STOKE 1 LEICESTER 1
Stoke haven’t lost any of the six Cup games between these sides at home.
WYCOMBE 2 PRESTON NORTH END 1
Preston are undefeated in their last 14 games v Wycombe. And Preston have won both of the cup games.
EXETER 2 SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY 2
Despite only starting eight days ago, new Sheffield Wednesday boss has served a longer stint than three other managers. Exeter also have twice the shots on target per game, and twice of the efficiency of shots to goals.
BURNLEY 2 MILTON KEYNES 0
Burnley have won their last four games v Milton Keynes.
STEVENAGE 0 SWANSEA 4
The away side has never won this fixture. Although it is only two games shared one a piece.
ARSENAL 4 NEWCASTLE 0
Arsenal have won their last nine home matches v Newcastle, and lost just two of the last 25.
HUDDERSFIELD 0 PLYMOUTH 1
Plymouth have never beaten Huddersfield (5W 3D) in any Cup competition.
BRENTFORD 0 MIDDLESBROUGH 0
These two teams have already met this season and it ended 0-0,
SOUTHAMPTON 1 SHREWSBURY 0
Southampton are three wins from three matches at home to Shrewsbury in the cup comps.
MANCHESTER UNITED 5 WATFORD 1
Watford have won only once at Manchester Utd, and that was a Cup competition in 1979,
FA Cup 3rd Round Fixtures Predictions – Sunday
Sunday now appears to be the premium day for the potential upset, with a lot of difference between league pyramid positions.
As per the Premier League you still get big teams on the Sunday, but they take on much less familiar opposition this time around rather than the Super Sunday match ups.
Man City play struggling Championship side Birmingham and will likely win with a second string side at best, and score plenty. Birmingham have lost five of their last six and are bottom of the form table in the Championship. Birmingham might be unlucky enough to face a recovering Sergio Aguero. Strangely enough, Birmingham’s woes are at home, and a lot of recent games skews the last six form. Birmingham are actually sixth for away from with just one loss in the last six. Still can’t see them beating Man City.
Chelsea take on fourth tier Morecambe, who are defying their annual prediction for relegation to Non League this season and are 7th in League Two and on a winning streak of four games. A loss here for Chelsea will no doubt see Lampard frog marched out of the managers role.
There’s an upset looming in Newport v Brighton, replicating the same upset from a few seasons ago. That is one of our feature games below.
And eyes will be on an all League Two affair more than usual, as Cheltenham and Mansfield battle for the fourth tier guaranteed place in the fourth round.
Championship Barnsley face fourth tier Tranmere Rovers, both with similar recent form home and away so normally you’d go with pyramid.
The SNC3000 predicts a Crawley win over Leeds which is very interesting and we say different. It is another feature match below.
The tipping computer also has third tier Portsmouth winning at Championship Bristol City. Bristol City’s most recent home game have ended up LWLW, so the L is due next in the sequence. Portsmouth have lost just once away this season, and have recently beaten three top six sides away and Sunderland. This is a great chance of an update and we agree with the SNC3000.
Finally, the below table doesn’t include the big David v Goliath cliche match of Spurs v Marine from the Northern Premier League Div 1 (8th tier). There weren’t enough stats for the lazy SNC3000 computer to bother with, but these games are always a genuinely interesting clash as the real minnows take on a big side. With Covid restricting Spurs fans from attending, Marine offered Spurs fans tickets for another home game next season. It will be at Marine’s home ground, and we can’t wait to see the likes of Mourinho and Kane/Son plying their trade.
FEATURE MATCH – NEWPORT COUNTY v BRIGHTON
Brighton have looked good in a lot of games this season without result, and now despite this good football find themselves in another relegation fight.
That is one reason to go for the upset here, with Brighton perhaps resting a player of two.
Newport are second in League Two and have a decent record in the FA Cup, knocking out Leicester and Middlesbrough last season.
They also have beaten Brighton in this very tournament too in 2013. A 3-1 win away from home no less.
Brighton had decent runs in the FA Cup in 2018 and 2019, but were knocked out last season by Championship side Sheffield Wednesday.
PREDICTION – NEWPORT 2 BRIGHTON 1
FEATURE MATCH – CRAWLEY v LEEDS UTD
Crawley are in the top seven in League Two and unbeaten in eight, so decent form recently compared to Leeds who are more hit and miss.
Leeds have one of the lower points per game in the last 10 seasons of the FA Cup, plus they have gone out at the first game in six of the last nine seasons. It’s been a while since Crawley have gone on a decent cup run too. The early part of the 2010’s saw a few good seasons.
These teams are yet to meet, adding in some mystery.
Leeds have lost four of their last six away games, but did fit in a 5-0 thrashing of West Brom, which is probably more relevant to this game for form lines. Crawley’s home form isn’t too bad but not a stand out.
Leeds do tend to concede a lot of goals, and Crawley are the second highest scorers in League Two this season.
But surely the SNC3000 isn’t right, we’ve predicted 4-1 win to Leeds for the record. At least one of us will be wrong.
OUR PREDICTION – CRAWLEY 1 LEEDS 4
FEATURE MATCH – BRISTOL CITY v PORTSMOUTH
We’re going for the upset here, based on Portsmouth’s decent away form.
Plus a look through the stats below show Portsmouth leading most attacking stats over Bristol City. More shots, more on target.
They have scored twice as many goals away as Bristol City have at home.
And better form.
Portsmouth did knock out then Championship Norwich from the FA Cup in 2019 so they are capable of an upset.
These teams met in 2009 in the Cup, where Portsmouth needed two chances to progress.
PREDICTION – BRISTOL CITY 0 PORTSMOUTH 1
OTHER PREDICTIONS
BARNSLEY 2 TRANMERE 0
Tranmere have never won at Barnsley.
MANCHESTER CITY 7 BIRMINGHAM 0
Man City have won all five cup clashes at home, with a combined total score of 18-3.
CHELSEA 4 MORECAMBE 2
Morecambe have won just two games in the FA Cup since 2010.
CHELTENHAM 1 MANSFIELD 0
Mansfield haven’t scored in any of the last three games v Cheltenham.
MARINE 0 SPURS 5
From Wikipedia….
In 1972 Roly Howard was appointed first team manager and completed 1,975 competitive games over a 33-year period before he retired at the end of the 2004–05 season. He was recognised by the Guinness Book of Records as the longest serving manager in world football as Marine enjoyed its most successful period, winning some 30 trophies.
FA Cup 3rd Round Fixtures Predictions – Monday
Just the one game on the Monday night, but it is interesting enough.
FEATURE MATCH – STOCKPORT COUNTY v WEST HAM UTD
The non league representative is Stockport County, a team who finished high up in the Second Division and reached the semi-final of the League Cup of 1996-97 according to Wikipedia but then ended up in the sixth tier within 15 years or so. Now back in the fifth tier National League Premier they are currently fourth and on track for a chance to return to the Football League.
They play West Ham whose record in the FA Cup in recent seasons isn’t great. Well against lower league opposition lately anyway.
In the last three editions of the FA Cup, West Ham have been beaten by teams in lower leagues. Last season it was Championship West Brom, the year before it was third tier AFC Wimbledon. The season before they needed two attempts to get past Shrewsbury Town before losing to Wigan Athletic anyway.
While Stockport are going well in the National League, West Ham aren’t the same basketcase team as they have been in those past three seasons, and should have more than enough firepower on the bench and deeper into their squad to progress. But there will surely be resting of players, so who knows.
OUR PREDICTION – Stockport County 1 West Ham 1
