Here is our big NRL Betting Round 15 Tips and Stats Preview, with a focus on betting and stats.
For those who like a punt, or just a stats fan in general,, we have a load of good gear below. With the finest in big price same game multis to chew on.
Grab your pencils, and get ready for some “quality” NRL Betting Round 15 tips and loads of barely interesting facts to help you choose.
PARRAMATTA EELS v MELBOURNE STORM
Rugby league fans are being spoiled at the moment, with Thursday games all of a sudden being among the best games of the week. It helps with the busted arse Broncos not featuring we guess.
Melbourne really outclassed the Roosters despite their injury worries last Thursday night. But like most things rugby league, the Roosters copied the Storm and got their key players injured.
Of course some of the biggest rugby league news from Melbourne is about Cameron Smith potentially changing clubs. Who’d think that Cam Smith would consider playing for the Titans at this stage of his career. Although he may as well if he’s already up here. The things some people will do to get away from Melbourne during Covid.
QUICK MATCH FACTS
- Melbourne won the two fixtures from last season by a combined 96-10.
- Parramatta haven’t played the Storm at home since 2016 where they lost. And they lost the home game before that. In fact you have to go back to 2012 for the Eels’ last win over Melbourne.
- Meanwhile, the Eels’ home record v teams outside of NSW (excluding Melbourne) is quite good with eight wins in a row.
- Melbourne remain the Thursday night kings, with 13 wins from 13 matches, making Parramatta’s current streak of three feel a little low. Overall the Eel’s Thursday record is 9/14
- This is the first Thursday meeting between these sides
- Melbourne have won all five matches in August v Parramatta.
- Like last week Melbourne come into this game as outsiders, and while they do have injury concerns, there isn’t a better team in the NRL for covering all positions. Ryley Jacks is a more than capable set of hands in the halves, and Cooper Johns/Nicho Hynes a great back up if Jahrome Hughes doesn’t play. And it’s not as if Parramatta have been playing that well lately.
- So the +6.5 start looks like a good conservative bet, and despite a drifting price, the $2.70 looks super value too. That Thursday night stat is hard to ignore.
- Five of Melbourne’s last eight away games has seen them score 20 points or less, and you can exclude one of the other three as it was against the hapless Broncos. Parramatta are averaging around 15 per games in their last four, so the total points of 36.5 is interesting, and worth a look at the under 36.5. Five of the last six clashes fall under that mark.
- Both teans have a combined average of 28 points in the second half, so should cover the 18.5 line for total second half points.
- The easy bet would be Josh Addo-Carr for first and/or last try scorer given his current form.
- Both teams have scored the first try nine times in 14 games this season. Melbourne’s strike rate is the same for last try too. The Eels have scored the last try seven times.
- Mitchel Moses is a good outside pick for first try scorer, or at least an anytime try scorer in the first half.
THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI
Melbourne +6.5 start
2nd Half over +18.5 pts
Josh Addo-Carr to score anytime
Mitchell Moses to score anytime.
@ $44.
PENRITH PANTHERS v CRONULLA SHARKS
Ladder leaders Penrith continue on their merry way with nine wins in a row and counting. Few would begrudge the Panthers some success this year. Well, except for former bus patrons of the Wests Tigers. At least you’ll know that if they win this year someone will give Gus Gould all the credit. Hopefully for the Sharks this weekend is a little less eventful than last weekend, and we are sure a bite from a panther would be far more painful than a Titan.
QUICK MATCH FACTS
- Penrith have conceded either 12 or 14 points nine times out of their 14 games so far this season. The only time they have conceded more than 20 points this season is when they have played at Kogarah x 2. But they also scored plenty and won in both of those games.
- Penrith’s record at home to Cronulla isn’t great, having won every fourth game for the last eight games. They did win at home last year though and are in red hot form.
- Penrith have lost just once in seven games v Sydney opposition this season. (10-16 v Parramatta)
- The Sharks have won every game where an opposition player has been sent off for biting.
- Penrith have won four from five on a Friday, the Sharks only Friday night game was a winner. Played against the Broncos of course.
- There was a small dip in the betting earlier in the week towards the Sharks, but that reduced the next day and Penrith remain strong favourites to continue their winning run.
- Cronulla have scored 28 points or more in six of their last eight games, and Penrith’s scoring average this season is 25, so the total points is a good chance of being covered.
- Given that in the last 15 home games v Cronulla, Penrith have either lost (10 times), or won by 8 points or less (4 times), perhaps the Sharks holding onto the 10 points start is worth a look.
- It wouldn’t be wise to back against Penrith for the first try scorer – they have scored the first try 12 times from 14 matches.
- Wingers are the top option for both sides we say that Brent Baden will put last weekend’s “feedback” behind him with a brace and first try.
- Penrith score the last try twice as much as Cronulla, and the interchange players feature highly too. And lively interchange player Dane Laurie is our outside pick,.,
- For value, why not throw in Braden Hamlin-Uele for an anytime try.
THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI
Penrith to win
Sharks +10.5 start
Brent Naden to score two tries or more
Braden Hamlin-Uele to score anytime
Total points +44.5
@ $121
BRISBANE BRONCOS v ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA
The Broncos must be very jealous of the Dragons, last week they managed two things the Broncos would probably really like to do – sack their coach and win a game. You can hardly see the outpouring of emotion heading Anthony Seibold’s way if when he gets the boot this season. Mainly because Seibold looks like one of those dogs that stares down the mail delivery person and snarls at them whenever they get within 5 metres of the letterbox. As long as the Broncos keep justifying their performances based on 40 minutes, then things will remain all good. Oh, and copy/paste whinge about Friday night-Channel Nein-Brisbane Broncos here. Although, it’s been a while.
QUICK MATCH FACTS
- The Broncos hold an advantage over the Dragons at Suncorp, Kick off time, Friday games, night games, August. But that was in healthier days for the Broncos.
- Brisbane have lost their past four Friday night games. The Dragons broke their own five game losing streak on a Friday last weekend.
- The Dragons have won just three of their last 16 games on a Friday v Qld opposition.
- Broncos have won just two of their last ten games v Sydney sides.
- Who’d think the Broncos would be $3.50 outsiders at home to a side who just sacked their coach and lie 11th on the NRL ladder. Perhaps their price drifted with the news of Anthony Milford’s inclusion.
- For all of the Broncos’ awfulness in the second half of games this season, there is a ray of light (floodlights on a Friday) as the Broncos average 13 points in the second half at home to sides outside of the top four. The Dragons only average 8.5 points in the second half, so maybe take the points start for the Broncos for the second half.
- Both of these teams are heavily weighted to first half success, so taking on the 20.5 point line for the first half will make it interesting.
- The Dragons and Broncos have scored the first try on just five occasions this season, so first try scorer should be pretty open. We’re going for two of the only Broncos backs who seem likely to do anything in a game these days – Kotoni Staggs and Herbie Farnworth, and leaning towards the winger for first try.
- Broncos have scored the last try once this season, so take them for last try scorer at your wallet’s peril. As ever we are going for Mikaele Ravalawa because he’s exciting and scored tries.
THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI
Broncos +9.5 start overall
Broncos +5.5 start second half
First half points +20.5
Herbie Farnworth to score anytime first half
Mikaele Ravalawa last try scorer for match
@ $181
