NRL Betting Round 14 Preview – Powered by GurglerBet

Here is our big NRL Betting Round 14 Preview, with a focus on betting and stats.

For those who like a punt, or just a stats fan in general,, we have a load of good gear below. With the finest in big price same game multis to chew on.

Grab your pencils, and get ready for some “quality” NRL Betting Round 14 tips.

SYDNEY ROOSTERS v MELBOURNE STORM

If this game is half as good as the previous encounter this season then it has been a Thursday night well spent. Melbourne are missing their two biggest names, but as ever the replacements are handy. And if injuries means Nicho Hynes gets some more game time then that’s fine by us.

QUICK MATCH FACTS

• Melbourne have 13 of their 13 Thursday clashes. The Rooster’s Thursday win % is 38%.
• The last eight winning margins in this fixture has been 2,1,2,8,1,15,1,3.
• The Roosters have lost one of their last 17 home matches in August, going back to 2011.
• The Roosters result sequence at home on a Thursday is (most recent result first) LWWLWWLWWL
• For obscurity, here is the sequence for Melbourne v Sydney teams recently. Oldest game first. 5 Wins, 1 Loss, 4 Wins, 1 Loss, 3 Wins, 1 Loss, 2 Wins……

• The 37.5 total points is generous, although the total points in this fixture is over 40, the last four home games for the Roosters has a much lower average of 23 points. Note: the Total Points has dropped to 36.5 overnight.
• The +5.5 start for the Storm looks inviting, given their respective form, injury lists and closeness of the recent contests.
• Market for this game has seen Melbourne’s price fall initially, but the $2.70 looks like real value.

• Melbourne and Roosters are second for scoring the first try this season at 70%.
• Sounds obvious that wingers are the leading first try scorers but combined the wingers are just under 50% for these teams scoring first. Overall, wingers have scored 29% of the first tries this season.
• No Brett Morris for the Roosters, so Josh Addo-Carr is the leading first try scorer left, and has done so as recently as last weekend.
• Melbourne are ahead on last try scorer this season with nine from 13 games
• Wingers score the last try more than the first this season (37.5%) and the combined Rooster / Storm total is right on that %. Easy to pick the wingers, but worth noting Melbourne’s last try scorer has been forward/interchange four times compared to three for the wingers.
• Big fan of Nicho Hynes’s work, and he will soon be a superstar for the Storm, so the tipping this interchange player to end the Storm game on a hy-gh-nes

THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI

Under 36.5 Total Points
Melbourne +5.5 start
Josh Addo-Carr to score anytime in first half
Nicho Hynes to score anytime in second half

@ $99.50

NZ WARRIORS v PENRITH PANTHERS

The Panthers are flying on top of the competition ladder, but the Warriors are having a real go at finishing in the top eight. Which would be a decent effort given the amount of hurdles thrown at them this season. Other more high profile teams struggling have far fewer excuses and should be ashamed compared to the Warriors. This game may be closer than people think.

QUICK MATCH FACTS

• The Warriors record on the Central Cost is now four wins and three losses. Two of those losses have been in the last two matches there. Penrith are unbeaten there on the strength of playing zero games.
• The Warriors have won their last two games v Sydney opposition.
• This will be the 8^th Friday game for the Warriors this season. Their record on a Friday currently sits at three wins and four losses.
• Penrith are on an eight game winning streak, but their last loss came on a Friday.
• Both of these teams won just one in five games last August.
• Penrith have won five in a row against teams not from Sydney.

• Note: the Warriors price has moved to $7.00 overnight.
• A slight move of excitement in betting saw the Warriors price drop 50 cents. Despite how well the Panthers are playing, and the gap in ladder position, the variance in betting odds seems a bit wide. New Zealand are in decent form.
• The total points say 43 points, and Penrith can get at least halfway there. They have scored between 22 and 28 in their five games v non Sydney sides this year. They have also put 42 and 56 points past teams in the past few rounds.
• The Warriors have scored 26 points in each of their last three wins, and are on a run of two straight wins. Why not take on the Over 42.5 points.
• New Zealand have had some success in home matches against Penrith, and while the Central Coast is not quite Auckland, perhaps they will be harder to beat away from Penrith. The start might be worth a punt.

• Penrith have scored first on 12/13 occasions this season, so you can bet against them if you like. Although the Warriors 9/13 is nothing to sneeze at and is second best this season.
• Wingers have five of the those 12 first tries, so the maths says you pick one of the Penrith wingers.
• Last try scorer could be more fun with interchange featuring in both team’s last try scorers, or fan favourite Viliame Kikau.

THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI

Total Points +42.5 points
Warriors +17.5 start
Brent Naden to score anytime
Viliame Kikau to score anytime

@ $22

PARRAMATTA EELS v ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS

An all Sydney clash for a Friday night, which rumours say could be the Dragons coach’s last in charge. But we’ve heard all that before. Hopefully the Eels have dried out after last Sunday’s big wet. Although, being Eels you think they’d like the wet.

QUICK MATCH FACTS

• Parramatta have won the only clash between these sides at Bankwest Stadium. St George Illawarra have also failed to beat any team in their other two clashes for a 0/3 record at the new ground.
• Even worse, going back to 2011, the Dragons have not won any of eight at Parramatta’s two grounds.
• The Dragons have also lost five in a row on a Friday night. And going back to 2011 they have won just 26% of their games on a Friday.
• Parramatta have won five of their last six Friday clashes.

• Hard to take the Dragons based on either current form or the recent head to head that favours Parramatta 7-1 since 2015.
• The 11.5 start might be worth considering. If you exclude Parramatta’s 42-4 thrashing of the hapless Cowboys recently, the average winning margin in Eels games is just 4.2 points.
• Parramatta win a lot of second halves, and their scoring rate is much higher in the second half, so look around highest scoring half bets or second half winners for the Eels.

• Parramatta have scored first on nine occasions this season compared to the Dragons five and interestingly enough, no wingers have scored first for the Eels. And only once for the Dragons.
• A suggestion is going with one of the Eels halves for the first try. Dylan Brown is the tip.
• 50-50 call for the last try scorer. Matt Dufty failing to see Mikaele Ravalawa in the dying minutes last weekend spoiled our $476 multi tip, and the Dragons winger is worth another shot.

THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI

Parramatta to win
Dragons +11.5 start
Dylan Brown to score anytime
Mikaele Ravalawa last tryscorer

@ $141

CRONULLA SHARKS v GOLD COAST TITANS

Two beach side teams go head to head and it is the first of a Super Saturday featuring all three Queensland teams. Which isn’t probably that super given how terrible at least two of them are going. Cronulla need to keep winning to stay in the top eight, although given the form of the chasing pack, maybe they don’t. The Titans are one of those teams chasing so could cement their place as best Queensland team with a win here.

QUICK MATCH FACTS

• Cronulla have only won two of six home games on a Sunday for the past two seasons.
• Gold Coast have a better winning % away on a Sunday in Sydney (42%) than at home (34%)
• Prior to last weekend’s win over the Cowboys, the Titans had won just once in 15 matches in August.
• Cronulla have won six games straight against non-Sydney opposition in August.

• A slight movement towards the Gold Coast, and why not, they are the best team from Queensland at the moment in the NRL. Although that isn’t much of a brag in 2020.
• Cronulla may have won the last four games between these sides, but their record at home to the Gold Coast isn’t great. They did win the last at Shark Park 20-6 last season, but in the five games prior to that they lost three to the Titans. And when they have won the margin has only been small (5pts, 2pts). Taking the ten points start for the Titans seems like good business.
• While the average points scored in these games matches the total points mark for this weekend (43.5), the last two games between these sides in Sydney have been well under the 40 point mark.

• With the Sharks scoring the first try more than double the times the Titans do you have to give them more consideration for first try scorer. Braden Hamlin-Uele is proving to be an unlikely source of first points, having done so three times this season. Wingers feature plenty too, so we’re going with Sione Katoa to cross the line first this weekend.
• Since the Gold Coast are twice as likely to score last than first, and Phillip Sami is on fire for scoring last you can’t see why he can’t back it up this weekend. Or at least a second half try.

THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI

Total Points Under 43.5
Gold Coast +9.5 start
Braden Hamlin-Uele to score anytime
Sione Katoa to score anytime first half
Phillip Sami to score anytime second half

@ $301

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS v SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Souths arrive in Townsville without the Covid banished Wayne Bennett, but assistant coach Jason Demetriou won a Queensland Cup title with the Northern Pride in Cairns, so is no stranger to winning in North Queensland. The Cowboys are getting some good players back, but it is probably way too late in the season.

QUICK MATCH FACTS

• South Sydney have won 10 of their last 12 matches against QLD opposition.
• North Queensland have lost their last six against Sydney teams, and six of their last eight at home to Sydney teams.
• North Queensland have also lost 11 of 13 against Sydney teams on a Saturday going back to 2018.
• No team has won more Saturday games than Souths since 2011 (60%) but the Cowboys are second for average points scored (22.7). Souths are third with 22.4 points on average.

• There is potentially a lot of points in this game with both sides getting close to full strength, and the last two matches between these side clears the 41.5 total points on offer.
• The margin is a tough one, with most games since 2015 well and truly covering the 7.5 start on offer.

• These teams are at the lower end for scoring first and last, the safest bet is either not to bother or go with a reliable source of tries in Alex Johnston or Kyle Feldt for either. The Cowboys do score more points in the second half 62% of the time.

THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI

Total Points Over 41.5
Alex Johnston to score anytime
Kyle Feldt to score the last try.

@ $34.50

CANBERRA RAIDERS v BRISBANE BRONCOS

Anyone for Pokies or Porkies? And we’re not even going to touch what a certain coach may or may not have done. Surely the Broncos season can’t get much worse. Usually it is the Queensland politicians that are the embarrassment of the state in Canberra, but it could well be Brisbane this weekend. Although, their recent record v Canberra could also mean that this is the game to turn it around. The rugby league world waits to see the reaction.

QUICK MATCH FACTS

• Canberra have beaten QLD opposition on both occasions this season and have won eight of their last ten v QLD teams.
• Brisbane have lost their seven away games against non Qld teams, and 10 of their last 11 matches on the road. The Broncos have failed to score in two games on that run and have conceded 20 points or more on each occasion.
• Brisbane’s last away game on a Sunday was the 58-0 thrashing in the finals by Parramatta last season.

• Prior to the Broncos being terrible, these games were reasonably tight, and the Broncos used to win them. The 17.5 start is generous but hard to take.
• Although, Canberra’s biggest win this season was by 18 points, and their last five winning margins average out to just over 5 points.

• Last try scorer for Canberra v Brisbane on paper is the weekend’s biggest mismatch. Canberra top the ladder for last try scorers with 11 successes in 13 matches, Broncos are dead last and have scored the last try just once. Doesn’t help when you score zero from time to time.
• Since the Broncos are excluded from last try considerations, going down the path of Elliott Whitehead or John Bateman is a sound idea for the last four pointer. Although, given how soft some of the tries the Broncos conceded last weekend, who could rule out Josh Papalii scoring last at value.
• First try is more even with both clubs scoring first five times. Kotoni Staggs’ form has been one shining light for the Broncos this season. No, not the shining light from the mobile phone camera. He is worth a first try bet or at least a first half try. The Broncos will need it given their poor second halves.

THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI

Canberra -9.5 start for  second half
Kotoni Stagges to be Brisbane’s first try scorer
Elliott Whitehead to score anytime second half

@ $52

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS v MANLY SEA EAGLES

An interesting Sunday clash, and somehow the Knights are red hot favourites going into this one. There seems to be value with Manly.

QUICK MATCH FACTS

• Manly have the best winning record on a Sunday since 2011 at 67% and have scored the most points on average with 24 points.
• Newcastle have won just two of their last 14 home games on a Sunday going back to 2016.

• Despite Manly missing a few key players, the odds for Newcastle seems a little thin. Manly have a decent record in Newcastle (3/5 since 2011 and a one points loss) and their respective 2020 form isn’t too far apart. Taking Manly with 7.5 start seems shrewd enough.
• The 40.5 total points look a little ambitious, so look for the unders. Only two games since 2015 between these sides has cleared the 40.5 mark.

• Both teams are around the 50% mark for scoring the first try, but crucially Manly are without their main source in Tom Trbojevic. Given it may be a tight affair, perhaps a Curtis Sironen or Joel Thompson could be value first scorers.
• Newcastle are currently more likely to score the last try, and the Knights do score more in the second half 62% of the time, so going with Newcastle for last seems prudent. 

THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI

WESTS TIGERS v BULLDOGS

A classic cats v dogs match to end Round 14. Wonder if it will rain cats and dogs like last Sunday. The Bulldogs have been shifted up from their usual who cares timeslot of Sunday 6:30pm to 4:00pm. Talking of 4pm, is that two Sydney teams playing each other again. Of course it is. A win could see the Tigers regain 9th spot. Just the way they seem to like. Hard to believe this was a team that smashed the Broncos not long ago.

QUICK MATCH FACTS

• Wests Tigers have won the only match between these sides at Bankwest.
• Tigers have won just once in their last six games, and that victory was belting the busted arse Broncos.
• The Tigers have lost their last three games at Bankwest stadium. The Bulldogs have won just once in six games there this season, and lost the last four.
• The Bulldogs conceded at just six points a game at Bankwest Stadium for their first four games. The next four has seen that average points conceded jump to 30 points.
• The Budllogs are 1/6 on Sunday this season. The Tigers are 2/4.
• Only the Cowboys have average less points scored on a Sunday than the Bulldogs (18.3) in the last ten seasons.
• The Tigers have won just three of 16 clashes against Sydney sides in August since 2013. Over the same comparison the Bulldogs are 12/19.

• The two teams mirror each other for the highest scoring half, with the Tigers scoring more in the first half at 62%, and the Bulldogs at 62% for the second forty minutes.
• Wests Tigers have scored more than twice the average points as the Bulldogs in the first half, so consider taking the line for the first half of -3.5.
• Despite the overall average points in this fixture being at 43, recent games has seen the point scoring much lower, and the under 39.5 looks a safe bet.

• A real lottery for the first try scorer, so perhaps just take a player you like or stay away from the market all together.
• It’s wingers-a-plenty for the last try for these teams, and given the Bulldogs are slightly more likely to score in the second half, we say Marcelo Montoya is the man to score last.

THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI

Total Points under 40.5
Wests Tigers -3.5 start 1st half
Bulldogs +4.5 start 2nd half
2nd Half Under 20.5 points
Marcelo Montoya to score the last try

@ $74.50