The winter break is here, with Premier League games stretching across two weekends, so our Premier League Week 26 Predictions and Preview is worth twice as much.
Each week our preview includes just enough quick info and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner. Or to provide just enough barely interesting information leading into the big weekend of football.
If you enjoy loads of stats and graphs with some opinion, then you will enjoy our full Premier League Week 26 Predictions and Preview.
Read More – Premier League Fixture Difficulty Ratings
Premier League Week 26 Predictions
GAME BY GAME PREVIEW
Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 26. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…
All stats are based on the last 20 years of League fixtures,except where stated. Last 6 matches are League fixtures only.
The barely interesting fact is just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions and cups.
EVERTON v CRYSTAL PALACE
SATURDAY 8TH FEB 12:30pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Surprisingly, a good/bad result this weekend could see one of these teams closer to Europe and the other closer to the Championship. West Ham grabbed a great win over Watford to get within four points of Spurs in 5th, and another home loss for Crystal Palace leaves them within 6 points of the drop. Amazingly they are only three points apart.
Why Everton Can Win….
Crystal Palace haven’t beaten Everton in their last ten attempts (D6 L4). Last win was in 2014 at Everton.
Everton have only lost to Man City since Marco Silva moved on. They have also scored as many points as Man City over that time.
The Toffees are also unbeaten at home since the Silva reign ended. (3W 2D)
Crystal Palace are 18th for goals scored in their last ten games.
Everton beat Watford last start despite going down 2-0 and with one less player.
Why Crystal Palace Can Win….
Crystal Palace have conceded the equal fourth lowest amount of goals this season, and fifth best away.
Crystal Palace average the same points against top and bottom six sides, and the record in the middle of that is their best this season.
Barely Interesting Stat:
If you combine these side’s results in their last ten fixtures 50% of the games have ended in a draw.
Final Say:
Everton 1 Crystal Palace 0
BRIGHTON v WATFORD
SATURDAY 8TH FEB 5:30pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Another relegation six pointer for the prime Saturday evening slot. A loss for Brighton will see in the relegation mix, despite how they play football. And has the Pearson polish worn off for Watford?
Why Brighton Can Win….
Brighton come into the game on a decent comeback against West Ham. Watford come into the game losing at 2-0 lead.
Brighton also haven’t lost a game this season against a side starting with W. (3D 1W)
Brighton have a decent record against the bottom six – average of 1.82 points. Watford’s isn’t bad at 1.5 points also.
Why Watford Can Win….
Watford have the superior H2H record.
Brighton haven’t won any of their last five games.
Barely Interesting Stat:
For seven of the last eight seasons, one of the two games between these sides has ended up a draw. Since Brighton won the first game of the season at Vicarage Road, this one must be a draw.
Final Say:
Brighton 1 Watford 1
SHEFFIELD UTD v BOURNEMOUTH
SUNDAY 9TH FEB 2:00pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
These sides haven’t met in the Premier League / Championship in the last 20 seasons. They did spend tow season together in League One.
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Such is the strange season in general, that Sheffield Utd have lost three of their last six, but still find themselves in the top six. Bournemouth have got their two wins in a row to avoid relegation troubles for now.
Why Sheffield Utd Can Win….
Sheffield Utd have lost just once to Bournemouth in 16 matches. The only win for Bournemouth was at Sheffield Utd in 1987 in the old Division Two.
Bournemouth have lost six of their last seven away games. And only Norwich and West Ham have scored fewer goals away.
The Blades average 2.33 points against the bottom six.
They even win the battle of the stripes (1.7 avg points v Stripes against 1.2 for Bournemouth)
Why Bournemouth Can Win….
They’re on a roll with two wins in a row.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Sheffield Utd have only been outside of the top ten for three game weeks.
Sheffield Utd have scored exactly the same amount of goals home or away. Bournemouth have conceded the same amount home or away.
Final Say:
Sheffield Utd 2 Bournemouth 0
MANCHESTER CITY v WEST HAM
SUNDAY 9TH FEB 4:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Nothing like an easy fixture against Man City to shake off their choke against Brighton last weekend. Nothing like a fixture against West Ham to take out the frustrations of a loss to Spurs and Jose.
Why Man City Can Win….
Man City have won the last six games between these sides on a Sunday. And they have only lost once in 11 games on a Sunday.
Man City have a perfect record against the bottom six sides.
Man City are unbeaten in February v West Ham.
They have well over twice the Expected Goals figure, plus almost twice as many Shots and Chances Created.
Why West Ham Can Win….
West Ham have a far superior Shots on Target ratio to Man City. In fact their 41.4% is best and 2% higher than the next best – Liverpool.
No team has made more tackles.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Man City aren’t in the best form, and their record recently against West Ham at home isn’t as dominant as you might think. Sure they’ve won the last three but only by 1-0, 2-1, 3-1 and lost the fourth most recent game 2-1.
Final Say:
Manchester City 2 West Ham 0
WOLVES v LEICESTER
FRIDAY 14TH FEB 8:00pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
A nicely timed match between two of the three over performing sides this year, as nothing says Valentine’s day like Wolves v Leicester. Leicester are still flying high in third, and should qualify for Europe’s best competition. Wolves can too, as they could win the Europa League, or the consolation prize to finish high enough to get another crack next year.
Why Wolves Can Win….
Wolves have a 100% record v Leicester at home.
Leicester are yet to take a point against top six sides the year and Wolves are almost top six.
Jamie Vardy doesn’t look quite the same player. And Man Utd have left another career on the slide, even without recruiting them, given their fruitless pursuit of James Maddison.
Why Leicester Can Win….
Wolves have not beaten Leicester in any of the last five midweek night games, Although Wolves did beat Leicester seven time in a row before that win less run at Leicester.
Leicester have a great record against Midlands side. Averaging 2.3 points per game.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Two of the last three games at Wolves have ended 4-3.
Final Say:
Wolves 1 Leicester 0
SOUTHAMPTON v BURNLEY
SATURDAY 15TH FEB 12:30pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
It is a little hard to believe that both these teams are closer to fifth place than the bottom three. It’s been that type of season.
Why Southampton Can Win….
Southampton are unbeaten against Burnley in February for the last 20 seasons. There were quite a few draws though.
Southampton were excellent against Liverpool last weekend and the 4-0 was a harsh scoreline.
Danny Ings still looks sharp and is due to score again.
Southampton (10.9) have twice the Expected Goals figure from Open Play than last ranked Burnley (4.09)
Why Burnley Can Win….
Burnley haven’t lost any of the last six games between these sides.
Burnley have an impressive 2.3 average points per game v teams from the South coast.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Burnley are second for being involved in games with over 2.5 goals scored this season with nine games, however their 36% of being involved in games where both teams score is the lowest.
Final Say:
Southampton 2 Burnley 0
NORWICH v LIVERPOOL
SATURDAY 15TH FEB 5:30pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
A return to the very first game of the season, where both teams impressed to a degree, and the current table positions probably don’t surprise, except for the gap to second.
Why Norwich Can Win….
Norwich have beaten Man City at home this season, so why not Liverpool.
Pukki party.
Norwich are unbeaten at home in their last three.
Why Liverpool Can Win….
Refer entire 2019-20 season so far.
Liverpool have won all five games at Norwich in the past 20 seasons.
They also average 3.6 goals per game at Carrow Road in those five games.
Liverpool are unbeaten everywhere.
Barely Interesting Stat:
The last match at Carrow Road ended 5-4 to Liverpool, and five goals or more have been scored in six of the last seven games.
Final Say:
Norwich 1 Liverpool 4
ASTON VILLA v SPURS
SUNDAY 16TH FEB 2:00pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Spurs got their win over Man City last weekend somehow, and now are back to 5th position, with a decent record of being undefeated against Man City in the league this season. Aston Villa have Brighton’s comeback to thank for not being in the bottom three instead of West Ham after losing to Bournemouth.
Why Aston Villa Can Win….
Jack Grealish. Imagine if Spurs had recruited him when they tried two summers ago.
Aston Villa have had more Shots, Shots in the Box, and Key Passes than Spurs.
Aston Villa have had 80 or so more fouls won than Spurs. On the back of Jack Grealish being the most fouled player this season.
Spurs have only won twice away from home this season.
Why Spurs Can Win….
Aston Villa haven’t beaten Spurs on a Sunday since 2004.
Spurs are undefeated against promoted sides this season, although it is a slightly underwhelming three draws and one win.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Spurs have won 2-0 on four of the last six games on a Sunday. And if you extend that out to eight games it is another three 2-1 wins.
Final Say:
Aston Villa 2 Spurs 1
ARSENAL v NEWCASTLE
SATURDAY 15TH FEB 12:30pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
This game looks even more dull in the context of the Week 26 fixtures being spread across two weeks. This is a genuine midfield battle which is interesting given pre season expectations.
Why Arsenal Can Win….
Newcastle have scored one goal in total from the last five games at Arsenal.
Arsenal have a 76% win record v Newcastle at home in the last 20 seasons.
Arsenal at least have some decent goal scoring potential.
Why Newcastle Can Win….
Newcastle’s record against Arsenal improves on a Sunday and in February.
Newcastle have won two of their three games in London this season, and the only loss was a narrow 1-0 at Chelsea.
Barely Interesting Stat:
The away side has won four of the last five Sunday games between these sides 1-0.
Or seven of the last eight games involving these sides have ended in a draw.
Final Say:
Arsenal 1 Newcastle 0
CHELSEA v MANCHESTER UNITED
MONDAY 17TH FEB 8:00pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
The big top six clash to end the extended weekend, although neither hold quite as much prestige these days. No doubt it will be a 0-0 bore-fest.
Why Chelsea Can Win….
Chelsea have had 77 more Shots in the Box than Man Utd.
Man Utd have only won twice at Chelsea in the league in the past 20 seasons.
Chelsea are undefeated at night also in the league.
Why Man Utd Can Win….
Man Utd are undefeated on a Monday and February v Chelsea in the past 20 seasons.
They did them 4-0 on the first week of the season.
Barely Interesting Stat:
The home side has scored two goals in five Monday night games in this fixture. The last two league games on a Monday have finished 0-0 between these sides.
Final Say:
Chelsea 0 Man Utd 0
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