Are you not entertained? When too much football is barely enough, we offer up our Premier League Week 22 Predictions and Preview.
Each week our preview includes just enough quick and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner.
We also have tips based on some statistics, football related or not, this week it is all about the aftermath of the big 3rd Round of the FA Cup, and who plays best the next game.
If you enjoy loads of stats and graphs with some opinion, then you will enjoy our full Premier League Week 22 Predictions and Preview.
Further Reading – FPL GW 22 Full Preview
Further Reading – Next Three Fixture Difficulty
Premier League Week 22 Predictions – Post FA Cup 3rd Round form
Average points for post FA Cup 3rd Round for 10 seasons.
TIPPING BACKGROUND
The 3rd Round of the FA Cup has just been played, so here is the culmination of 10 season’s results for the very first game after the FA Cup.
Most average points historically over 10 seasons gets the tip for this weekend.
Christmas-New Year Performance
Before we head into the Premier League Week 22 Predictions and Preview, why not check out who was best over Christmas.
Not only do we have the points, but as part of our weekly Premier League Fixture Difficulty Rating articles we have a measure for how many points each team should have scored.
Premier League Week 22 Predictions
GAME BY GAME PREVIEW
Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 22. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…
All stats are based on the last 20 years of League fixtures,except where stated. Last 6 matches are League fixtures only.
The barely interesting fact is just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions and cups.
SHEFFIELD UTD v WEST HAM
FRIDAY 8:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Despite two losses in a row, it was only to the might of Liverpool and Man City, and the Blades still looked reasonably sharp.
They may have peaked table-wise for now, but it is still a decent position to be in, gazing down the table to the other promoted teams.
Time to see if David Moyes can do something at West Ham, a game at Sheffield United should be one they win if they match their ambitions of more than survival.
There may be no love lost between these sides either, with West Ham staying up at Sheffield United’s expense over a decade ago, and eventually shared some of their EPL cash due to fielding players outside of the rules.
Sheffield United have three of the top ten players for FPL per Million cost – Lundstram (1st), Baldock (2nd), Henderson (7th). West Ham’s best is Ogbonna down in 48th.
Final Say:
Sheffield Utd 1 West Ham 2
Barely Interesting Stat:
Four of the last six games between these sides have ended 1-1, and nine of the last 15 matches.
CRYSTAL PALACE v ARSENAL
SATURDAY 12:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Perhaps Mikel Arteta is turning Arsenal around. A very good win over Manchester United last league game, and they somehow withstood on Leeds United onslaught in the FA Cup on Monday to progress. Two wins in a row is a rare stat in 19/20 for the Gunners.
Since playing the top four in five games, Crystal Palace’s subsequent run against much easier opposition has seen them end with three wins, four draws and a loss from eight games. A decent return which points to their upper midfield position, but harder games against top or improving teams are coming. Their four draws in the last six for Crystal Palace isn’t bad form, but a loss to Derby at home in the FA Cup could put some doubts in their ability to get big wins. And there’s always the Zaha factor during any transfer window.
There possibly won’t be too many goals in this game, Crystal Palace are the lowest scorers at home with nine goals in 10 matches, Arsenal are only two better away. Based on this season for each side that is. However, combine these sides in a game and it seems to be goals galore – 23 in the last four games and 3.4 overall per game.
Interestingly, Crystal Palace have conceded 10 goals fewer than their xA suggests. Arsenal’s is spot on.
Key FPL men have OK stats in this game against the opposition:
Aubameyang v Crystal Palace – 3 matches – 2 goals
Zaha v Arsenal – 9 matches – 1 goal – 5 assists
Final Say:
Crystal Palace 0 Arsenal 2
Barely Interesting Stat:
Two of the last three games have ended 2-2, and a healthy 23 goals in the last five matches.
CHELSEA v BURNLEY
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Before Chelsea’s recent struggles at home, you would think this would be an easy win for Chelsea, but their three losses in four games at Stamford Bridge cast enormous doubt. Especially that given the teams who beat them were struggling for form (West Ham, Bournemouth and to a lesser extent away from home – Southampton).
Burnley were terrible at home to an Aston Villa down on troops, but do have a reasonable record at Chelsea as per our barely interesting stat below.
All Burnley have to do is keep a clean sheet. Seven times this year they have kept a clean sheet for seven wins. Which of course means they don’t win if they concede a goal.
A clean sheet may not be that far away, as Chelsea have blanked in those three losses and their 11 home goals scored is only 31% of all their goals scored this season, the lowest % of all sides.
Final Say:
Chelsea 3 Burnley 0
Barely Interesting Stat:
Chelsea’s record at home against Burnley isn’t great since Sean Dyche took over. 4 matches – 1 Win, 1 Loss and 2 draws. Not great reading considering how ordinary their home form has been of late.
EVERTON v BRIGHTON
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Not much in it between these two sides, just one point apart in the lower midfield battle.
Both suffered poor losses in the FA Cup on the weekend, going down to supposed weaker opposition. Brighton went down to second tier Sheffield Wednesday while Everton were beaten by Liverpool’s reserve side.
Hopefully that won’t halt the recovery at Everton that has started since Marco Silva left. Although the blip might mean Carlo Ancelotti gets a big name or two in January.
Their recent improvement has seen them rise to 6th best home record this season. Brighton’s away record is 16th.
Can’t see many goals or a Brighton win, given their barely interesting stat on form at Everton below.
Final Say:
Everton 1 Brighton 0
Barely Interesting Stat:
Brighton have never won at Goodison Park. Although their home record sees just two losses in nine games.
LEICESTER v SOUTHAMPTON
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
There will be plenty of pre-game talk of the 9-0 thrashing Leicester handed out to Southampton earlier in the season, but Southampton are much improved since, mainly thanks to Danny Ings staying fit and scoring goals.
In fact, if the league table started after their loss to Leicester, the Saints would be 7th in the table, just one point behind Wolves, Man Utd and Spurs. They are also 6th in last six form.
Leicester meanwhile would still be 2nd if the table started from November.
Hopefully Jamie Vardy returns to the team, as another hat trick could be a record for goals scored against one team in a single season. We’ll have to check on that.
Southampton have won their last two away, and combined with a decent recent record at Leicester this may mean a home win isn’t a certainty.
Interestingly, Southampton have made the most tackles so far this season.
Final Say:
Leicester 1 Southampton 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Southampton are unbeaten in their last four games at Leicester. Scores were 2-1, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0.
MANCHESTER UTD v NORWICH
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
A rare meeting of two teams who are better against top opposition than lower ranked sides.The only difference is that Man Utd beat the higher teams a lot more often.
Norwich are getting close to looking like they are going down, which is a shame as they have been entertaining to watch. A shame too that the Pukki party has died.
At least there should be goals, with Norwich the worst team for clean sheets this season, although only one worse than Man Utd’s three.
Man Utd, for all their relative disappointment this season have only lost once at home, and are unbeaten in eight games at Old Trafford. Norwich are the worst team on the road this season. Their only win coming in the north west against Everton.
Final Say:
Man Utd 3 Norwich 0
Barely Interesting Stat:
Norwich actually won their last match at Old Trafford, 2-1 in December 2015. Prior to that game, they had lost 4-0 three times in a row.
WOLVES v NEWCASTLE
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Both teams come into the game on the back of two losses, neither of Newcastle’s were surprising, nor really was their inability to get past third tier Rochdale in the FA Cup on the weekend.
Wolves loss at Watford was a little, but they will surely bounce back this weekend.
Interestingly, they have scored and conceded as many goals at home as away this season.
Some decent player stats. Wolves’ Moutinho has made the most tackles this year. Adama Traore is second to Zaha in Ground Duels won this season with 175, despite playing a full 260 minutes less.
Ruben Neves’ 17.14% Shots on Target rating is the worst for players with 20 shots or more this season.
Final Say:
Wolves 2 Newcastle 0
Barely Interesting Stat:
Last time Wolves beat Newcastle at home on a Saturday was 1993. 2 Draws and 2 Losses since.
SPURS v LIVERPOOL
SATURDAY 5:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
The big game of the weekend and it would be so Mourinho to go out and stun Liverpool and win this game. He could trade off it for the rest of the season. Given the way Spurs are going, he may need it. We think maybe not win, but an annoying enough draw.
Although, Spurs stink at the moment. Losses to Chelsea and Southampton, along with a draw at Norwich and the inability to get past Championship side Middlesbrough in the FA Cup is not a form line to beat the best team in the world.
With Harry Kane out, at least Son is back for Spurs, and the past has shown that Spurs do all right with a shining Son and no Kane. For instance between Jan 20 and Feb 10 last season Harry Kane missed four games and they won all four.
Enough about Spurs. Liverpool will probably win, with the double act of Mane and Salah scoring a goal each.
Final Say:
Spurs 1 Liverpool 2
Barely Interesting Stat:
Spurs have lost their last four to Liverpool in all comps. Their last win against Liverpool on a Saturday was in 2008.
BOURNEMOUTH v WATFORD
SUNDAY 2:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Watford are third in last six form, and they could escape relegation zone for the first time this season with a win and help from other results.
Bournemouth have lost eight of their last ten games and as a consequence have dropped into the bottom three over the Christmas-New Year bonanza. Surprisingly, the last three times Bournemouth avoided defeat were against Arsenal (D), Chelsea (W) and Man Utd (W).
This game is one for the draw fans. Three of the last four have ended up a stalemate, and eight of the last 12.
Final Say:
Bournemouth 0 Watford 2
Barely Interesting Stat:
The home side last won this fixture in 2015. Since then it has been two losses and seven draws.
ASTON VILLA v MANCHESTER CITY
SUNDAY 4:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
A real mismatch looms as the final game of the week, Aston Villa are struggling in the bottom three and Man City have a 100% record against bottom six sides.
Aston Villa do have Jack Grealish, in our opinion one of the top ten players in the Premier League this season. He was the star in Villa’s recent win at Burnley, and they will need for survival given their injuries to their goalkeeper and main striker.
Aston Villa have conceded a lot of goals this season, but amazingly xG says they should have let in six more. They do have a 100% record against Man City in January.
Interestingly, Aston Villa have conceded the same amount of goals at home as Man City have away.
Still, Man City should have way too many stars for Aston Villa.
Final Say:
Aston Villa 1 Man City 4
Barely Interesting Stat:
Aston Villa last beat Man City in 2013. That game saw them score their only goals in their last five home games v Man City.
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