More football you ask, of course there is, and that means we can still offer up our Premier League Week 21 Predictions and Preview.
Each week our preview includes just enough quick and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner.
We also have tips based on some statistics, football related or not, this week it is all about the first game of the new year.
Enjoy our full Premier League Week 21 Predictions and Preview.
Premier League Week 21 Predictions – New Year’s Day Form
Average points for New Year’s Day matches for 10 seasons.
TIPPING BACKGROUND
Since Week 21 is 2020’s first games, we thought it would be a good idea to see every team’s form on the first bunch of fixtures of the new calendar year.
So whichever team is historically better, they get this week’s tip.
Premier League Week 21 Predictions
– GAME BY GAME PREVIEW
Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 21. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…
All stats are based on the last 20 years of League fixtures,except where stated. Last 6 matches are League fixtures only.
The barely interesting fact is just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions and cups.
BRIGHTON v CHELSEA
WEDNESDAY 12:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Brighton are currently the Christmas period early kick off kings. It’ll be three early kick offs in a row when Chelsea come to visit on New Year’s Day. Brighton have been pretty impressive their last two early kick offs with a win over Bournemouth last start and they should have got a point against Spurs.
Their home form is on the up too, up to 9th best for the season now, and surprisingly their +3 goal difference at home is 6th best.
For all their decent home form, the problem is that this match is against Chelsea – the second best away side and a team Brighton have lost to in every game of their Premier League stay so far.
Chelsea may be struggling at home, but have knocked off Arsenal and Spurs, and have 100% record v the bottom six this season. Although Brighton are 7th last, you get the point.
Final Say:
Brighton 1 Chelsea 2
Barely Interesting Stat:
Brighton have only scored 5 goals in 13 matches against Chelsea going back to the 1933 FA Cup. Just one win and a draw in those games.
BURNLEY v ASTON VILLA
WEDNESDAY 12:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
A game that is looking like a must win game for Aston Villa. Not only for their perilous table position in the bottom three, but to drag another team towards the relegation zone. If Burnley win they’ll be nine points clear of Aston Villa, which is a huge gap given the way they are playing.
Not much in the head to head, except for the difference between scores for games at Burnley and Aston Villa. In the last 20 seasons, the two league matches at Turf Moor have ended 1-1, where the goals flow more freely.
It doesn’t help Aston Villa’s cause the fact they have conceded the most amount of goals away this season – 22 in 10 matches. Nor does the fact that despite the opposition average ladder position of their last three opponents being 18.67, they have just three points. Harder fixtures are coming and time is running out to get them against easier opposition.
Burnley have won 4/5 against not from outside the top six at home. Only Crystal Palace have beaten them.
Final Say:
Burnley 1 Aston Villa 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Home sides have won the last four midweek games between these sides in all comps.
NEWCASTLE v LEICESTER
WEDNESDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Now that Leicester know their place in the Premier League – next best behind Man City and Liverpool after recent fixtures – let’s hope that gives them the freedom to attack their remaining games in style. What better side to do it against than the side they beat 5-0 last time.
Newcastle are different proposition now, and at home, with the recent loss against Everton just their second at home this season. Their nine goals conceded in ten home games is the equal best in the league at the moment. And they have a perfect record over Leicester on a Wednesday in the league over the last 20 seasons. January has seen only draws.
Leicester’s win at West Ham was a rare one without Jamie Vardy, and for selfish FPL purposes we hope he is well rested. A decent record of five goals in nine against Newcastle needs improving too.
Final Say:
Newcastle 0 Leicester 2
Barely Interesting Stat:
Leicester’s 5-0 win last start was the first by a home side in this fixture for six games.
SOUTHAMPTON v SPURS
WEDNESDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Southampton are firing now, out of the relegation zone, and have two wins and a draw from their last three, and a visit of an underwhelming Spurs won’t worry them too much. Although, the Saints’ home record is still poor, second worst just in front of West Ham.
For Spurs, they have been unconvincing in their last three. They were poor losing to Chelsea at home, relied on a few moments of brilliance to come back against Brighton, and were unable to beat last placed Norwich. One wonders when the Jose from the past will reappear. A loss to Southampton could bring that forward. And bring on some perverse pleasure.
Southampton and Spurs are equal on points in the last six form, and Saints have one of the Premier League’s in form forwards. It’s just the poor home record that worries.
Interestingly, Southampton (0.71) have more average points per game against the big six clubs this season than Spurs (0.4).
Final Say:
Southampton 1 Spurs 3
Barely Interesting Stat:
Spurs have won the last three midweek games between these sides by a total of 12-4.
WATFORD v WOLVES
WEDNESDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Slowly, Watford are looking like a side that wants to hang around in the Premier League, be in down to Nigel Pearson or coincidence, they look good, even when beaten by Liverpool.
Their defence is much improved, the three goals they have shipped since Pearson’s arrival makes them the second best defensive side.
And as if to match the new manager’s toughness, Troy Deeney is back among the goals.
Wolves may have dropped to 7th, but have not dropped any admirers from the Christmas break, coming from behind against Man City and were as competitive against Liverpool as any side this season by losing 1-0 at Anfield.
Wolves have decent away stats in general, 6th best in overall and last 6 away form.
Final Say:
Watford 2 Wolves 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Since Nigel Pearson took over, Watford are sitting 7th in the form table with a 2-2-1 record, ahead of Leicester, Chelsea and Arsenal, making them the second best London club in that time.
NORWICH v CRYSTAL PALACE
WEDNESDAY 5:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
No wins in seven home games for Norwich, who sadly look like they are closer to the drop than ever. The draw against Spurs at home last start gives them some hope.
Problem is that Crystal Palace are a marginally better side away than Spurs overall. Although, not lately as Crystal Palace have played two draws against the two bottom three sides they have played away in the past three games on the road. And are fourth worst overall for away form.
For all of his efforts, Teemu Pukki has only scored once in Norwich’s past seven home games.
January and midweek history points to a draw for this one.
Final Say:
Norwich 1 Crystal Palace 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Norwich have conceded almost twice as many goals as Crystal Palace this season (40 v 22). They also have half the points.
MANCHESTER CITY v EVERTON
WEDNESDAY 5:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
A clash with two managers with recent Bayern Munich experience. It is still hard to believe that a manager of Ancelotti’s past teams ended up at Everton.
The combination of Ancelotti and Ferguson’s interim stint has seen Everton go unbeaten in five games, and players like Calvert-Lewin are looking like world beaters.
Man City are now resigned to battling for second place after their loss to Wolves, but have seen off 2019-20 over achievers Leicester and Sheffield United either side of that loss.
That is despite Kevin de Bruyne cementing himself as among the Premier League’s very best this season in recent games. No one has more goals + assists combined in the last seven games.
Everton have the second worst conversion of xG this season with Southampton, only Watford are worse off.
Final Say:
Man City 1 Everton 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Everton are second in the table from when Marco Silva was sacked. Making it a quinella at the top for Liverpool sides.
WEST HAM v BOURNEMOUTH
WEDNESDAY 5:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Two sides on the brink of the relegation zone, but at least West Ham have made the manager change to try and stop the rot.
One does wonder about West Ham’s ambitions by hiring David Moyes though. He did save them last time around, and does have a better squad, but is it simply survival they are after. A win over an equally struggling Bournemouth will help.
Both of these teams have won just two games since Week 6, so their position of 16th and 17th is justified. And a slightly unlikely Aston Villa will see the loser into the bottom three.
The home side have the worst last six form at home, and the away team have the second worst away form. Perhaps not a classic awaits.
Final Say:
West Ham 1 Bournemouth 0
Barely Interesting Stat:
Despite the lack of wins, both sides have beaten Chelsea, Manchester United and Southampton this season.
ARSENAL v MANCHESTER UNITED
WEDNESDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Manchester United have turned things around nicely, they can also beat the lower ranked sides as well as the top sides, following their win against Burnley. Although Burnley’s record against the top sides at home is zero points poor.
December / Christmas has seen contrasting fortunes for these sides, Manchester United are second in the overall last six form, Arsenal are fourth last.
Wolves and Arsenal have drawn the most amount of games this season with nine in 20 matches.
Interestingly, Arsenal haven’t lost a Wednesday game in 20 seasons, and Man Utd are kings of the timeslot.
Final Say:
Arsenal 1 Manchester United 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Arsenal have plenty of room for improvement under their new manager. Before Unai Emery was sacked Arsenal were 8th and scored 1.38 points per game. Now they are 12th, six points from relegation and have scored at an average of 0.85 points per game since Emery’s dismissal.
LIVERPOOL v SHEFFIELD UTD
THURSDAY 8:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
A tricky bunch of fixtures against 19-20 over achievers for Liverpool comes to an end as Sheffield Utd complete the run previously featuring Leicester and Wolves.
Nothing it seems will stop their title tilt, so it seems it is a matter of the margin and date of the title win.
Luckily Liverpool play glorious football, and hopefully the gap to their rivals now, or pursuit of all records means we’ll see some even better football played.
Sheffield Utd’s loss to Manchester City was just their second in the calendar year, and first since last January in the Championship.
The solo Thursday 8pm kick off seems a little ridiculous given the FA Cup action on the weekend.
Final Say:
Liverpool 3 Sheffield Utd 0
Barely Interesting Stat:
Sheffield United have conceded as many goals away as Liverpool have at home, showing just how good the Blades have been away.
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