Football is coming thick and fast, so fast we can barely keep up, but that hasn’t stopped us producing our Premier League Predictions Week 18 and preview.
Each week our preview includes just enough quick and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner.
And as ever a method of deciding EPL Predictions using a vital statistic or something a little absurd. This week it is based on UK Christmas drinking habits.
Enjoy our full Premier League Predictions Week 18 and preview, with more stats and graphs than you’ll ever need.
Read More: Matchday 17 Results and Stats
Premier League Fixtures Difficulty – Week 18
2019-20 Premier League Alternative Predictions Week 18 – Christmas Hangover
Here are this week’s predictions based on UK drinking habits by Region.
TIPPING BACKGROUND: Christmas is just about here, and a lot of people will be heading to Xmas parties this weekend. Which means a lot of alcohol. Which means that heading into the weekend’s football action there may be a few sore heads. So we have obtained the UK drinking habits by region, number of units drank per person per week.
Our theory is the more that is drunk, means the bigger the hangover, and hungover people don’t cheers as much, providing less support for their team, so their team plays worse than usual.
Which means the tip goes to the region which drinks less.
2019-20 Premier League Predictions Week 18 – GAME BY GAME PREVIEW
Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 18. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…
All stats are based on the last 10 years of Premier Leagues fixtures,except where stated. Last 6 matches are League fixtures only.
The barely interesting fact is just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions and cups.
EVERTON v ARSENAL
SATURDAY 12:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Both of these sides are on the verge of appointing new managers, with Everton surprisingly going to win the race for Carlo Ancelotti, but if Arsenal can steal Mikel Arteta from Pep, they have done well too. Arsenal’s stop gap interim manager is not quite working out as good as Everton’s man. One hopes that Duncan Ferguson is kept on for entertainment value.
Interesting stat above between the sides, with Everton averaging 2.2 points against London sides – they have recently beaten Chelsea too. Arsenal meanwhile have the blues, against blue sides that is. Not a single point taken from them this season.
Everton’s record does improve for December, as does recent form. Everton are two points better off than Arsenal is last six form and are 12th compared with 16th.
Final Say:
Everton 2 Arsenal 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Everton have not beaten Arsenal on a Saturday at home since 2006.
NEWCASTLE v CRYSTAL PALACE
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Newcastle’s decent run of results came to a halt against Burnley, who continued their great form at home to lower sides. Crystal Palace may well be tired after their big game on Monday against Brighton. One does wonder if the fewer days for turnaround, and after such a big fixture will have Crystal Palace feeling flat. Hopefully not for Zaha, who is our FPL differential at the moment, and an entertainment machine when when not being fouled and/or falling over.
Healthy collection of clean sheets between these sides, and the stat that Crystal Palace have the lowest number of games that see Over 2.5 Goals this season – five with Sheffield Utd. Newcastle have been involved with two more games with over 2.5 Goals.
Only Leicester and Liverpool have conceded fewer goals in the last six form table. Crystal Palace have conceded five goals in six games, Newcastle have let in seven. Newcastle have the second best defensive record at home, but one game less than a few others.
To say it will very probably be defensive means that we’ll get it completely wrong.
Final Say:
Newcastle 0 Crystal Palace 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Four of the last five games at Newcastle have ended 1-0, with Newcastle winning three of those. Interestingly, the games that wasn’t was A 3-3 Draw.
NORWICH v WOLVES
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Nice to see these teams back in the Premier League together, as not long ago both of these clubs were in the third division after falling straight through the Championship after EPL relegation.
Norwich have some historical stats on their side. Home advantage on a Saturday is huge, and they are 4/4 on Saturdays and 3/3 at 3pm. Have have also scored exactly two goals on 5/8 matches H2H.
Pukki has brought life back into the party, and their performance of Leicester was quality for a side in the bottom three playing top side. A point was deserved. Wolves probably also deserved a point against Spurs last weekend, but wasn’t to be after a late Spurs goal. Their second longest unbeaten run (finished at 11) has now been passed to Leicester (9) and surprisingly Man Utd (6)
Final Say:
Norwich 1 Wolves 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Wolves haven’t won at Norwich on a Saturday since 1997. Eight games for six losses and two draws.
ASTON VILLA v SOUTHAMPTON
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
These two sides combine for five losses from six games over the last three gameweeks, and they sit next to each other in the table in 17th and 18th. Superior goal difference keeping Aston Villa out of the bottom three.
Southampton conveniently have played and beaten both promoted sides this season so far.
Danny Ings is one of the main reason for the turnaround for Southampton from a few weeks ago, scoring vital goals, and they come more frequently away from home than at home. 56% of Ings’ goals have come on the road.
Or maybe Southampton’s mini turnaround was due to the fact that they played and beat the only two sides below them in the table.
Aston Villa may have some confidence boost after they beat the youngest ever Liverpool side 5-0 midweek.
Final Say:
Aston Villa 1 Southampton 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Aston Villa haven’t beaten Southampton in the last four home games spread across the last ten seasons, nor have they beaten Southampton on a Saturday or at 3pm in the same period. Villa’s last win over the Saints at home was in the Premier League in 2004.
BOURNEMOUTH v BURNLEY
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Bournemouth do what they do, lull everyone into thinking they are in relegation trouble and then win, and will probably win a few in a row to be forgotten about for a while.
Burnley got a solid 1-0 win against Newcastle, as Bournemouth did as a much bigger surprise against Chelsea.
Burnley have a decent record at Bournemouth in the Premier League, but will need to fight the Bournemouth turnaround.
Final Say:
Bournemouth 2 Burnley 0
Barely Interesting Fact:
No draws in the last ten seasons between these sides.
BRIGHTON v SHEFFIELD UTD
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
No H2H from the past ten seasons in any division.
Last time these teams met was in 2005/06 where Sheffield Utd won both games.
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
A decent game between two over-performers
These teams have scored the same amount of goals, but the Blades defence has been sharper conceding nine fewer goals.
Sheffield United have six clean sheets this season, but last weekend’s against Aston Villa was the first in six matches. Brighton’s last clean sheet came in Gameweek 11.
Brighton currently have a 50-50 record against promoted side.
Sheffield Utd’s 12 points away from home is made up of two wins and no losses. And it good enough for the 5th best away record. Brighton’s 12 points at home is only good enough for 13th in home form.
Final Say:
Brighton 1 Sheffield Utd 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Brighton not beaten Sheffield Utd at home in the last four meetings. Their last win was in 1987.
MANCHESTER CITY v LEICESTER
SATURDAY 5:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
In a weekend where the first placed team is out, it is nice that we still get 2nd v 3rd here, and 4th v 5th on Sunday.
Leicester’s great winning run ended at eight games last weekend as Norwich fought them all the way with a draw at home. While Man City had the far easier game away at Arsenal.
Kevin De Bruyne was the star, as he has been for a lot of Man City’s games this year. A great return for FPL players, especially those who picked in week 1 and stuck.
Man City have a great record against teams that usually wear blue kits – 100% so far this season.
For Leicester it is the first leg of a Man City-Liverpool double. And if they intend to keep us neutrals amused by staying in the title race, we need them to win both games. Leicester do have a decent record in games v Man City in December.
Final Say:
Man City 2 Leicester 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Riyad Mahrez has played for both sides – his record against Man City is one goal and two assists in seven games. He has only played Leicester once for no returns.
WATFORD v MANCHESTER UTD
SUNDAY 2:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
This will really test if Manchester United are truly poor against the lower ranked teams this season, as Watford are dead last and not looking likely to move much further from there.
Watford were quite good against Liverpool last weekend, but their poor finishing, which included a couple of air swings, will need to improve if they have any chance of staying up.
Watford have at least won this fixtures at home in the past five seasons. They beat Man Utd 3-1 in 2016. Since then Man Utd have won all other games.
Man Utd have actually had 28 fewer shots than Watford, but it is the On Target stats that differentiates.
Final Say:
Watford 1 Man Utd 2
Barely Interesting Stat:
Man Utd have won 16 of the last 17 games against Watford.
SPURS v CHELSEA
SATURDAY 4:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
A great win for Spurs against a good Wolves side last start, should have them ready for Chelsea who are on the slide.
Chelsea have now lost four of their last five, and have been beaten at home by Bournemouth and West Ham by 1-0 in that run.
Looking above, they have yet to register a point against the big six sides (only Arsenal to come after this weekend), and have the same number of points against teams in the top six when they play them.
Chelsea have played against the easiest opposition on average this season. Their 13.5 opposition average position is well above the rest. They have also not scored any points after going behind. So Spurs must score early and score often.
At least their record against London teams is OK.
Final Say:
Spurs 3 Chelsea 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Jose has already lost his first game against one of his former clubs in Man Utd a few weeks ago. His record against Chelsea is 4 wins – 4 losses – 1 draw. His record against former sides away is poor, so lucky he is at home.
