Premier League Week 13 Predictions – Gurgler v Third International Break

Another International break done, and a while to the next one, so it is full steam ahead with our Premier League Predictions Week 13 and preview.

Each week our preview includes just enough quick and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner. Plus an alternative tipping method based on some obscure football stat or something even less relevant.

This week after the third International break, we based tips on team results in the first game after the third International break for the last ten years.

After the tips enjoy our full Premier League Predictions Week 13 and preview, with more stats and graphs than you’ll ever need.

Further Reading….

A to Z of 2019-20 FPL Stats and Stuff

Week 13 Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Rating

Our method of deciding which team has the best/worst fixtures for the next three weeks.

Premier League Predictions Week 13 2019-20 v Third International Break

Average Points per Game listed.

Tipping Background

This one is simple for a change. We have the results for the first game after the third International break from the past 10 seasons, and the team with the better average points per game gets the tip.

2019-20 Premier League Predictions Week 13 – GAME BY GAME PREVIEW

Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 13. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…

All stats are based on the last 10 years of Premier Leagues fixtures,except where stated. Last 6 matches are League fixtures only. The graphic stats are all Premier League only, except where both teams played in the Championship.

The barely interesting fact is just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions.

WEST HAM v SPURS

SATURDAY 12:30PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

All the narrative about this game will be about the sacking of Spurs manager Mauricio Pochettino. Which given their form this season is almost fair enough. With Bayern Munich without a permanent long term manager, and both Real Madrid and Barcelona possibly having openings, he probably won’t be unemployed for long. He did everything he could with Spurs, but ultimately didn’t win anything. Spurs will no doubt bounce back quickly and strongly.

As for this match, this is the 2nd and 3rd worst teams from London, both underperforming so far this season. And even more so of late, as there have been no wins for either side in the last 5 matches.

Then there’s Spurs away record – their last 12 games have seen 9 losses and 3 draws – will is among the worst in the Football League over that time.

But there are things historically on Spurs side, a decent 50% win record from the past 10 seasons, winning better than half of the games at West Ham, and they have won all games in November between these sides.

Plus the reply from the players over the sacking is a huge positive.

Final Say:

West Ham 0 Spurs 3

Barely Interesting Stat:

The home side (either side – all comps) have not won any of the last 6 games in this fixture.

CRYSTAL PALACE v LIVERPOOL

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

A match between the lowest goal scorers at home and the team who have conceded the fewest goals away from home. Both on four goals. The average goals scored in this game over the past 10 seasons is nudging 4 goals, but can’t quite see that happening on Saturday.

Despite memories of the infamous Liverpool choke which brought the great Luis Suarez to tears, Liverpool have a decent recent record at Crystal Palace. They have won their last five at Selhurst Park. Different story at Anfield mind you, so Palace will be rubbing their hands at the prospect of the return leg.

Liverpool have got the 3pm time slot covered, winning all three games in the regular time slot. Interestingly, Crystal Palace have won both games in November in the past 10 seasons.

Final Say:

Crystal Palace 0 Liverpool 2

Barely Interesting Stat:

Crystal Palace have kept more clean sheets this year than Liverpool.

EVERTON  v NORWICH

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

This looks like a bit of a stinker. A shame if it is as Everton have a much better side than their 15th place says, and after the way Norwich played against Manchester City it looked like a party every week.

Since that Man City result, Norwich have managed just a 0-0 draw at Bournemouth in seven games. That is their only point away from home. That one point equals the amount of goals scored on the road in 2019-20. And number of total clean sheets.

Perhaps the Canaries could run high on the spirit of Teemu Pukki having a large hand in Finland making their first major tournament (Euro 2020) during the International break.

Everton have turned things around a little – 2 wins and a draw in their last four puts them upper midfield comparing last four games. Although, they should have made hay earlier in the season as they have a hard run of games coming up soon.

Draws a plenty in this fixture, including the only game in November and most of the Saturday and 3pm kick offs.

Final Say:

Everton 2 Norwich 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Everton have only won two of the last ten fixtures between these two sides this decade.

ARSENAL v SOUTHAMPTON

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

With Mauricio Pochettino packing up his belongings at Spurs, removal boxes must be getting ordered for these two managers. Although, a loss for one manager this weekend is more critical than the other one feels.

Both teams are not in great form, no wins for either side in their last four. That winless run extends by another three games for Southampton, who have done OK with two 2-1 losses since their 9-0 drubbing at home by Leicester.

Interesting that these teams were just one point apart after Matchday 5 in 7th and 10th places. The Saints have managed just one more point since. 

Worth noting that Southampton’s away form is quite good with seven points from six games making them the 8th best away team this season.

Also note that the Saints are yet to take any points against any top six side in six attempts.

Final Say:

Arsenal 2 Southampton 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Southampton have not won at Arsenal since 1987. George Harrison’s I Got My Mind Set On You was number two in the charts. Walk The Dinosaur was number 18 after dropping ten places in a week. No idea why.

WATFORD v BURNLEY

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Watford got their first win last start, a deserving triumph at Norwich with a man down for the last part of the game. That win suddenly turns around their recent form of three draws and a loss into losing just one of their last five. Rather than no wins in 12.

We have maintained that Watford are just about to turn a corner, and the win against Norwich is just the start. Before they hit a few harder games. They should take six points over the next two games including this one and Southampton at home, which is currently the EPL’s easiest fixture.

Burnley got back on track last weekend and got back inside the top ten. Their away record is pretty weak this season, but do seem to go quite well against teams in the bottom six.

Final Say:

Watford 2 Burnley 0

Barely Interesting Stat:

The last four times Burnley have lost exactly three in a row over the last two seasons they have won the fourth game, as happened last weekend. The number one song in 1947 was by Francis Craig called Near You.

BOURNEMOUTH v WOLVES

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Looking at the graphs above, these sides could barely be more closely matched heading into this weekend.

Both are on 16 points, Wolves just ahead as they have scored one goal more, the relative home and away goals stats are almost the same, and their average points against similar sides is exactly the same. That screams draw to us. Even the xG is close.

Wolves are currently seven unbeaten in the league, having started to negotiate the extra burden of Europa League nicely. This streak is actually now the second longest current unbeaten streak behind Liverpool. Not bad at all.

We wonder if Mr Howe will be approached by Spurs for their vacant role, and if the mere mention of it will distract him and Bournemouth. It wouldn’t be the first time Spurs have taken an aspiring top shelf manager from the south coast.

Final Say:

Bournemouth 1 Wolves 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Wolves have only won once at Bournemouth – in 1947-48 FA Cup. The number one song in 1947 was Francis Craig’s big hit Near You.

BRIGHTON v LEICESTER

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

This is our game of the weekend, the one we’re really looking forward to. Brighton compete very well at home, and Leicester compete everywhere at the moment.

Leicester have won their last four games, and six of their last seven. Brighton have won their last their three games at home. So form is quite good.

The big discrepancy is the relative form against top six sides (Brighton) and non big six sides (Leicester). Leicester have an almost perfect 2.7 average points per game against the non big six clubs, Brighton are yet to take a point from teams lying in the top 6 of the table.

Can Vardy continue his rich form? Of course he can. And he will. Party on.

Final Say:

Brighton 1 Leicester 2

Barely Interesting Stat:

Brighton have never beaten Leicester in the Premier League – 3 losses 1 draw.

MANCHESTER CITY v CHELSEA

SATURDAY 5:30PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Arguably this game is more interesting than usual, with Man City not appearing to be as consistently dominant as previous seasons, and Chelsea’s young side kicking arse. Although, they have had a good run of games against easier opposition. And the last time they played a side from Manchester didn’t go very well.

Chelsea overtook Man City last matchday, as City are in the unfamiliar surrounds of fourth place, and have lost two of their last five.

Chelsea are on a run of six straight wins, which is great in any circumstance. But worth noting that the average ladder position of their opponents leading into each game was an average 16.0 over those six games. Still wins are wins, but we will see if the streak continue against a top four side, not bottom four.

Chelsea have scored just six goals in the last ten games against Man City. Three came in one game.

Final Say:

Manchester City 3 Chelsea 0

Barely Interesting Stat:

These two sides haven’t met on a Saturday at 3pm for at least ten seasons.

SHEFFIELD UNITED v MANCHESTER UNITED

SUNDAY 4:30PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

Overall H2H – Sheffield Utd 34 – Draw 15 – Man Utd 44

Sorry haven’t met in league last 10 seasons.

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

The lonely old Sunday games, and one that on the surface doesn’t look like it is going to be a goal fest. But Sheffield United’s progress from the Championship to Premier League overacheivers is more than enough interest.

Sheffield United have the second best home defence with just four goals conceded, but they are also fifth worst for scoring at home with the six goals.

Manchester United meanwhile have the equal third worst goal scoring record on the road this season with five goals. And just one win.

Interestingly, Man Utd’s record this year against the big six clubs is 0.5 average points per game better than the non big six sides. Typified in their draw with Liverpool and thrashing of Chelsea.

Final Say:

Sheffield Utd 1 Manchester Utd 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Sheffield United beat Manchester United in the first season of the Premier League in 92/93, and have lost eight of the last nine against them since in all competitions. That one win coming in an FA Cup game in the same season.

ASTON VILLA v NEWCASTLE

MONDAY 8:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Newcastle have hit some form, not quite looking the busted arse as most thought at the start of the season. In fact, they are a full four points better off this season than under Rafa Benitez last season at the same point. They have scored and conceded more.

Aston Villa had a horror run of Liverpool, Man City and Wolves but were hardly disgraced by their losses in all three games. They almost beat Liverpool.

Following on from the hard games, a point of interest is Aston Villa’s form against bottom six sides. Perfect so far. Newcastle have lost their only game against a promoted side thus far when they were well beaten by Norwich.

Final Say:

Aston Villa 0 Newcastle 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

The last three games at Villa Park between these sides have ended in a draw, and you have to go back to 2011 for Aston Villa’s last win at home over Newcastle.