Premier League Week 12 Predictions – Gurgler v Injuries

Too much Premier League nowhere near enough? Well, welcome to our Premier League Predictions Week 12 and preview.

Each week our preview includes just enough quick and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner. Plus an alternative tipping method based on some obscure football stat or something even less relevant.

This week after the horror injury to the Everton player Andres Gomes, we thought we’d see if a long injury list is really a hurdle to winners.

After the tips enjoy our full Premier League Predictions Week 12 and preview, with more stats and graphs than you’ll ever need.

Further Reading….

Our Gameweek 12 Fantasy football FPL Preview

Week 12 Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Rating

Our method of deciding which team has the best/worst fixtures for the next three weeks.

Premier League Predictions Week 12 2019-20 v Injuries

Number of Injuries listed.

We could then use the injury list as a tipping method, which we did above.With the horror injury to Andre Gomes for Everton last weekend dominating Premier League talk, we thought it was time to check in on every club’s injury list. 

It is based on our theory that the fewer injuries a club has, the more likely their team is strong,and they will win. In theory.

Source –https://www.premierinjuries.com/injury-table.php

2019-20 Premier League Predictions Week 12 – GAME BY GAME PREVIEW

Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 12. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…

All stats are based on the last 10 years of Premier Leagues fixtures,except where stated. Our Match Rating is out of 20, and is explained at the end. Last 5 matches are League fixtures only. The graphic stats are all Premier League only, except where both teams played in the Championship.

The barely interesting fact is just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions.

NORWICH v WATFORD

FRIDAY 8:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

When this game was set down to be played on a Friday night, the bosses were probably hoping it wouldn’t be second last v last, but it is.

Watford have just two goals away this season, which is coincidentally one more than Norwich’s one on the road this season. At the other end it isn’t great either, with just three clean sheets between them. Again Watford leading by one.

Watford are leading a category they probably don’t want to, the team that is under their xG by the most – a full six goals fewer than xG thinks. Interestingly, there has been plenty of shots, as Watford have had the 9th most shots, and their shots on target tally is better than seven other teams.

Final Say:

Norwich 1 Watford 2

Barely Interesting Stat:

The last time Norwich beat Watford on a Friday was in 1958.

Also, loads of goals in games between these sides not on Saturday or Sunday – 21 goals in the last 5 games.

CHELSEA v CRYSTAL PALACE

SATURDAY 12:30PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Chelsea are the kings of November and lunchtime kick off for this fixture.

Chelsea have a great record against the non Big 6 sides, averaging 2.6 points in nine games, which is much better than the 0.0 in 2 games against the big 6 sides. 

Interestingly their home goals count has the biggest discrepancy of any Premier League side this season when compared to their overall goals scored. Chelsea have scored just seven at home at 1.4 per game, unlike their overall record for the season which is 2.3.

Crystal Palace have won the third highest amount of fouls this season, and lead attempts from free kicks.

Surely this clash won’t be as exciting as the midweek Champions League game v Ajax. Although Crystal Palace’s last game was pretty entertaining.

Final Say

Chelsea 2 Crystal Palace 0

Barely Interesting Stat:

Six of the last eight games between these sides on a Saturday have ended 2-1, with mainly Chelsea winning those games.

BURNLEY v WEST HAM

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

West Ham rule this clash in November in the last ten seasons. That doesn’t make it any easier to pick a winner between these two though.

Just the one draw between these sides in the last three weeks of the season, not great form.

Burnley have the worst pass completion %, which is 4% lower than he next worst,

Final Say:

Burnley 1 West Ham 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Since Burnley’s modern return to the Premier League (09-10), they have only beaten West Ham at home once on a Saturday, and that was their first season.

SOUTHAMPTON v EVERTON

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Two sides going fairly ordinary here, and managers among the very favourites for the sack. And following on from Friday’s second last v last match, this games sees third and fourth last go head to head.

Thanks to Leicester, Southampton’s 19 goals conceded at home is more than most other Premier Leagues sides for the whole season. (Norwich, Watford and themselves).

Both teams have scored four goals less than the xG measure says they should have.

Southampton have had the hardest run of any Premier League team this season. The average league position of their opponent each week has been 6.7, a full two places lower than the next worst Aston Villa.

Final Say:

Southampton 1 Everton 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Everton have only won two of the last 13 games v Southampton. 

SPURS v SHEFFIELD UTD

SATURDAY 3:00PM

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Two teams certainly going in different directions according to pre season expectations.

How great is it to see a promoted team like Sheffield United sitting sixth at this point. No flash in the pan either, as they have competed in every match, even against the big teams. That bodes well for this weekend’s clash.

Spurs aren’t as terrible at home this season as they have been away for most of this calendar year. Although their only loss at home this season was to the defensive Newcastle.

Interestingly, the Blades have kept 4 clean sheets this season to Spurs one. That puts Sheffield Utd second behind Man City’s five clean sheet, and Spurs last with Norwich.

Final Say

Spurs 2 Sheffield Utd 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Sheffield Utd have not won at Spurs since 1991, although they may await the return leg as Spurs haven’t won away v Sheffield Utd since 1976.

NEWCASTLE v BOURNEMOUTH

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Newcastle prove they like a trip to London, with a third win in their last four trips, and the one loss being the 1-0 brave defeat to Chelsea.

Despite only amassing the small total of three goals at home this season, they have only lost once, to Arsenal 1-0 in the first weekend of the season. With that decent home form, and great form in London, Newcastle should be safe surely. Given the amount of London clubs that is.

They are going slightly better against the better teams too, with a 1.2 points per game average against the big six teams this season, compared to 1.0 against the non big six.

Bournemouth have scored one goal in four weeks, but happily grabbed two draws and a win in that run to sit nicely in the midfield. Although, an inability to score against Watford and Norwich is a worry.

Newcastle’s three goals last weekend v West Ham were a surprise given that was 50% of their total goals before that round. The Magpies have also scored two goals per game in the last three meetings with Bournemouth.

Final Say

Newcastle 2 Bournemouth 0

Barely Interesting Stat:

These teams have met 12 times overall, with the record a nice 4-4-4.

LEICESTER v ARSENAL

SATURDAY 5:30PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Leicester are everyone’s friend at the moment, with Vardy parties, and Turkish Delights breaking out across the FPL landscape. They are a team that is fun to watch and their third position on the ladder is fully justified. And nothing from the rest of the big six apart from Chelsea makes one think that they won’t be top four by May.

It does help when you beat sides away from home 9-0, and are outperforming your xG by 14 goals.

Not forgetting that the three goals conceded at home is the equal lowest in the Premier League.

Arsenal appear to be heading for another Wenger-out saga, and a potentially looming Mourinho certainly won’t make fans any happier. Although, they might win something big.

Final Say

Leicester 3 Arsenal 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Arsenal won both of these fixtures in Leicester’s premiership winning season, but Leicester have scored three goals in the last two home games v Arsenal. The 4-3 loss away makes that 3 in 4 games where Leicester have scored three.

MANCHESTER UTD v BRIGHTON

SUNDAY 2:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Man Utd proved their win against Norwich was a one off as they were pitiful against Bournemouth – losing 1-0 last weekend. Hard to imagine coming into this weekend that Brighton would be two places and two points above the EPL giants.

Brighton have only won once on the road this season – in Week One – and Man Utd have only lost once at home this season and their last home game was their best with a 1-1 draw with Liverpool.

Brighton have the worst Shots on Target % in the Premier League at 27%. And they are equal holders of the season record of fewest games where both teams score at four.

Final Say

Man Utd 0 Brighton 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Brighton have never beaten Man Utd at Old Trafford, but those kind of records haven’t bothered teams like Crystal Palace of late.

WOLVES v ASTON VILLA

SUNDAY 2:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

A decent midlands derby as an entree to the main feast awaiting at 4:30pm.

Aston Villa are already one up in this fixture this season with a 2-1 League Cup win a few weeks ago.

Villa have won the most fouls this season with 147.

Only 18% of Wolves games this season have seen over 2.5 goals. The lowest in the league.

Final Say

Wolves 1 Aston Villa 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Wolves have beaten Aston Villa in their last two meeting at home, but prior to that they hadn’t won 11 home games in a row stretching back to 1978.

LIVERPOOL v MANCHESTER CITY

SUNDAY 4:30PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

The big game in the most terrible time slot for those half a world away, the eyes will be burning on Monday morning.

Sadly a lot of these big top of the table big name clashes are dull cagey draws.

The teams have almost identical goals for and against at home and away respectively.

Still amazing that for all of their 32 expected goals this season, Man City are still outperforming it.

No team is close to the 240 shots that Man City have taken this season, but Liverpool’s on target % is better by 3%.

Man City have won the second fewest amount of fouls in the Premier League this season, Liverpool have the sixth lowest tally.

Final Say

Liverpool 1 Manchester City 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Man City last won at Liverpool in 2003.

2019-20 Premier League Team Stats

If you’ve made it this far with all the stats and graphs, you earned a reward – more stats and graphs.

There are a few key fields of data per team for this season.