Premier League Predictions Week 5 2019-20 – Gurgler v Post International Break 1

A week off is way too long without any Premier League action, so we can’t wait to offer up this weekend’s Premier League Predictions Week 5.

Each week our preview includes just enough quick and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner. Plus an alternative tipping method based on some obscure football stat or something even less relevant.

Following on from the first interruption to the Premier League season because of International games, we’re using each team’s form after the first International as a method to decide winners.

This is probably the best batch of games for the season so far in terms of match ups for the neutral without have a big headline game.

Enjoy the long Premier League Predictions Week 5 and preview.

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Premier League Predictions Week 5 2019-20 – v Post International Break 1

Points per game in brackets.

NEWCASTLE (1.4) to beat Liverpool (1.2)

MANCHESTER UTD (2.3) to beat Leicester (1.4)

SHEFFIELD UTD (1.8) to beat Southampton (1.13)

SPURS (2.0) to beat Crystal Palace (1.0)

BRIGHTON (1.7) to beat Burnley (1.5)

DRAW – Norwich (2.2) v Man City (2.2)

EVERTON (1.5) to beat Bournemouth (1.17)

ARSENAL (2.5) to Watford (1.7)

WEST HAM (1.5) to beat West Ham (1.45)

TIPS BACKGROUND: This one is easy. We’ve taken 10 seasons of stats, and worked out how each team does after the first International break, the higher the average points, the more they are to win, so they get the selection.

Below are the team’s record after the International break for the past ten seasons. Some may surprise you.

2019-20 Premier League Predictions Week 5 – GAME BY GAME PREVIEW

Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 5. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…

All stats are based on the last 10 years of Premier Leagues fixtures,except where stated. Our Match Rating is out of 20, and is explained at the end. Last 5 matches are Premier League fixtures only. The graphic stats are all Premier League only.

The barely interesting fact is just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions.

LIVERPOOL v NEWCASTLE UTD

SATURDAY 12:30 pm

OUR R.I.C.K. MATCH RATING (out of 20)

This game would have been marginally more interesting if Rafa was still in charge at Newcastle. Liverpool’s current form can carry the interest for any neutral.

MATCH STATS

Stats say Newcastle are no chance at Liverpool, but like against Spurs earlier this season, Newcastle have a decent record on the day and at the timeslot. But with no Benitez and Liverppol in such scoring form we can’t see anything good happening for them.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Newcastle last won A Liverpool back in 1995 in the League Cup, and the year before in the League. But they were super competitive in the game at St James Park last season. 

Steve Bruce’s record against Liverpool isn’t as bad  as you’d think considering he never managed the big names. 25 Games – 6 W – 9 D – 10 L

OUR FINAL SAY

Liverpool 5 Newcastle 0

BEST BET

SAME GAME MULTI

Liverpool to Win
Over 2.5 Goals
Mane to score anytime
Salah to score anytime

 @ $4.00

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

For all the talk and FPL ownership of Mane v Salah, Roberto Firmino has quietly assumed second place in Liverpool’s FPL point scorers at decent return of 6.8 per game. He is a full 2.0 cheaper than Mane, so could be the better value Liverpool non Salah alternative. Although his record v Newcastle is grape, not great. Just one assist in four games.

MANCHESTER UTD v LEICESTER CITY

SATURDAY 3:00 pm

OUR R.I.C.K. MATCH RATING (out of 20)

These teams look like they will be fighting over the lower end of the top six, so these games will be crucial. Leicester are in the better form at the moment, but this will be their toughest task yet. Plenty of interest too, especially anytime Man Utd are involved and when they are underwhelming. Jamie Vardy is worth at least one point for interest. 

MATCH STATS

Man Utd certainly have the advantage here, covering the Foxes in most departments. Not wins in September though, as Leicester’s only win over Man Utd in the last 10 seasons of the Premier League came in September. Although Man Utd’s 100% 3pm kick off stat cancels that out.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Manchester Utd are one of the few teams that Leicester were unable to beat on the way to their historic title. Both games ended in a 1-1 draw.

OUR FINAL SAY

Man Utd 1 Leicester 2

BEST BET

Jamie Vardy to score anytime @ $2.60

or

Both Teams to score @ $1.72

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

Jamie Vardy is worth a punt. Leicester may have some hard games coming up, but he actually averages a goal or an assist against each side in the upcoming three games. And he is scoring and assisting at a better strike rate under Brendan Rodgers than in under premiership winning coach Ranieri.

SPURS v CRYSTAL PALACE

SATURDAY 3:00 pm

OUR R.I.C.K. MATCH RATING (out of 20)

A decent all London affair with two teams in decent form, and with decently interesting players. The lack of goals in this fixtures is the main worry for neutral enjoyment.

MATCH STATS

Spurs advantage in just about every way, their unbeaten home record and 100% win rate in September should see them win again. Crystal Palace’s last win v Spurs in the League came in January 2015. Although, worth noting is Crystal Palace’s record away to the big six clubs recently. Wins over Man City, Man Utd, and pushing Liverpool all the way last season too.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Spurs have won the past eight league games v Crystal Palace, but Crystal Palace have won the last two Cup games.

In Spur’s run of eight straight wins in the League, 6/8 were by 1-0.

OUR FINAL SAY

Spurs 2 Crystal Palace 0

BEST BET

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

Those FPL players with Harry Kane will probably rubbing their hands at the prospect of Kane v Crystal Palace after his International goal scoring in the break, but goals are a little more scarce against Palace and is record v the Eagles isn’t as good as team mate Eriksen’s. 

Eriksen v Crystal Palace = 9 Games / 3 Goals – 4 Assists

Kane v Crystal Palace = 11 Games / 3 Goals – 2 Assists  

WOLVES v CHELSEA

SATURDAY 3:00 pm

OUR R.I.C.K. MATCH RATING (out of 20)

Possibly a bit harsh on second glance, but these are two sides that have disappointed a little so far this year. Both teams have OK form, and style, but wil lfind it hard to compete with the other 3pm games.

MATCH STATS

Chelsea have the advantage overall, especially the 100% record on Saturdays at 3pm, Wolves took 4 points from these fixtures last year, and Chelsea have gone a little bit backwards since. Wolves though are suffering a small mixture of second season syndrome and the Europa League qualifying fatigue.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Wolves have won two of their last three Premier League games against Chelsea.

OUR FINAL SAY

Wolves 1 Chelsea 1

BEST BET

Draw and Both Teams to score @ $4.20

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

FPL players appear to be jumping on board with a couple of Chelsea youngsters with Mason Mount and Tammy Abraham the top two players for change in ownership from Week 4 to Week 5. Good value too, but can they break down the Wolves defense. Despite being 17th, Wolves have conceded just 5 goals, 4 less than Chelsea in 11th. Jiminez and Jota are in the top 20 most traded out, but will they troll their owners with a bonanza against Chelsea?

BRIGHTON v BURNLEY

SATURDAY 3:00 pm

OUR R.I.C.K. EFFECT MATCH RATING (out of 20)

Our lowest Rick Effect rating of the weekend and no wonder it is in the 3pm batch. At least Brighton are playing better football this year, and you have to admire Burnley’s start to the season and Ashley Barnes’ goal scoring feats.

MATCH STATS

Brighton have yet to break through for a victory against Burnley, but their record seems less awful in the 3pm kick off with 2 draws and a loss. That’s in the Premier League though. Brighton didn’t lose to Burnley in the three previous seasons in the Championship they were together for.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Burnley did the double over Brighton last year, but the previous 5 matches between the sides ended in draws.

OUR FINAL SAY

Brighton 1 Burnley 0

BEST BET

Under 2.5 Goals @ $1.72

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

Ownership of Ashley Barnes has gone up over the International Break (2.3%) and with good reason. He currently has the best points per Million ratio of any player this season with a score of 5.56. He has a modest record v Brighton (1 Goal + 1 Assist in 3 games) but is in form.

NORWICH CITY v MANCHESTER CITY

SATURDAY 5:30 pm

OUR R.I.C.K. EFFECT MATCH RATING (out of 20)

Not much rivalry to speak of, as these sides have different goals for the year, but interest is high going into this because of the riches of Manchester City’s attack, and Pukki and his party offer plenty for the neutral. There should be loads of goals too to make it a worthwhile view.

MATCH STATS

Not much going for Norwich’s chances here, except for the lack of Laporte at the back. One wonders if the new combination doesn’t settle in at the back, whether the in form Pukki will poach another goals against top opposition. Pukki scored at Anfield so how can he not score at the Etihad too. Norwich’s record at home to Man City gives them a tiny sniff of competing for a while.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Norwich have been competitive against Man City at home recently – aside from one flogging. Going back to 2000 the results read – 0-0, 0-0, 3-4, 1-6, 2-3, 2-0, 1-0.

OUR FINAL SAY

Norwich 2 Man City 4

BEST BET

Over 3.5 Goals @ $1.60

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

By now every FPL probably has at least one of KDB or Raheem Sterling, but those with Sergio Aguero may be rubbing their hands at the prospect of him facing Norwich. He has 6 goals and 4 assists in 6 games against the Canaries. And then there’s the forgotten man of the City midfield David Silva who is coming back into form, making decisions even harder.

BOURNEMOUTH v EVERTON

SUNDAY 2:00pm

OUR R.I.C.K. EFFECT MATCH RATING (out of 20)

No real rivalry, but both play decent football, and have enough interesting players to justify tuning in on the Sunday. The earlier kick off helps for those in Australia. We’re still waiting on Moises Kean to break out, and reckon it could be this weekend.

MATCH STATS

Good number of goals scored, and Everton do have the overall better record for EPL games.  Everton also own the Sunday  and 2pm timeslot in this fixture.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Strangely though, Everton have yet to beat Bournemouth at home in the Premier League in four attempts.

OUR FINAL SAY

Bournemouth 1 Everton 3

BEST BET

Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.75

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

We’re holding onto Moises Kean for our Fantasy Team now, in the hope that he produced something close to what we saw with Kean in the previous season with Juventus. A must have is Lucas Digne who strengthened his position in the top 10 selected players for FPL, with a healthy 2% increase in ownership. Worth noting for Everton free kick takers, is that Everton have won the second most amount of fouls so far in 19-20 FY.

WATFORD v ARSENAL

SUNDAY 4:30 pm

OUR R.I.C.K. EFFECT MATCH RATING (out of 20)

A solid down the, middle all London affair, which should see Arsenal to take the game. A Troy Deeney will help this match get above a Rick Effect Rating. Watford having a new manager increases the interest just a bit.

MATCH STATS

Watford have sprung the occasional surprise on Arsenal, but not on a Sunday with a late kickoff. Everything points to a win on Sunday for Arsenal.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Watford did the double against Arsenal in 87/88, but have  a record of 2/12 since.

OUR FINAL SAY

Watford 1 Arsenal 2

BEST BET

Both Teams to score @ $1.50

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

Refer to our full FPL preview coming soon for our traditional rundown of any side who has a new manager, and whether there are any new potential players to have.

ASTON VILLA v WEST HAM

MONDAY 8:00 pm

OUR R.I.C.K. EFFECT MATCH RATING (out of 20)

The rivalry lies in the colour of the kit for now, but they could still be fighting over lower midfield places soon. Both teams play OK football, and in Haller West Ham appear to have a genuine goalscorer to get excited about. West Ham are also interesting as they rarely pout two good games together. 

MATCH STATS

A nice even split in the Premier League overall, but some below the surface. This fixture on a Monday means that West Ham are less likely to win, but the night time kick off swings it well back into West Ham’s favour.

OUR FINAL SAY

Aston Villa 2 West Ham 0

BEST BET

West Ham to win @ $2.60

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

Haller is getting into must have territory. He has been tremendous in the past two games, and has a history of goals on the continent in Germany. For Aston Villa, John McGiin and Jack Grealish look great every time we get to see them play. You take McGinn for the savings, but we think Grealish has more in him from what we’ve seen already this season.

MORE STUFF

The match rating is our thoughts on how exciting a neutral should get about the game. We rank it by if it is a great rivalry, whether at least one of the teams are in good form, whether they play decent football or dross, and general interest. Whether the team has a star player, crazy manager, give away lots of red cards, or have a Rene Higuita style goalkeeper. We wish anyway. Each field is rated out of five and the grand total out of 20.