Premier League Predictions Week 32 – Gurgler v Expected Goals

Time for a big week and a bit of Premier League football, where the Premier League plays catch up, and so do we with our Premier League Predictions Week 32.

Every week we offer up our Premier League predictions, along with a mini preview of each match, with a few best bets in an alternative Premier League preview.

We also put our tips up against a competitor, usually not human though, and based on some football stat or general life. This week our tipping opponent is based on the difference between the Expected Goals and actual goals scored by each team.

It’s a lot like the BBC’s Lawros tips, but better. Arguably.

Premier League Predictions Week 32 – Gurgler v Gossip

TIPS BACKGROUND: With just a few rounds of the Premier League to go, we have really started to run out of ideas, and we’ve already done tips based on Brexit.

So since we haven’t used the Expected Goals stat for tipping yet this season, we’ll do that for Week 32. But we’re not using the XG figures, but the team’s relative performance to that.

Which ever team has exceeded their Expected Goals (XG) with the amount of goals scored this season gets the tips, as they are more efficient, and better prepared for this busy week of fixtures.

PREMIER LEAGUE Predictions Week 32 – Best Expected Goals to Goals Scored Ratio

Expected Goals variation in brackets. Full stats later. Less is better as it means cheers variation from actual goals scored.

 Man City -2.25 to beat Fulham 5.17

Leicester 0.36 to beat Bournemouth 1.46

Brighton -0.73 to beat Southampton 2.78

Burnley 1.85 to beat Wolves 3.36

Crystal Palace 2.51 to beat Huddersfield 4.62

West Ham -2.58 to beat Everton -2.28

Man Utd -1.77 to beat Watford -0.93

Chelsea -1.48 to beat Cardiff 7.05

Spurs -6.81 to beat Liverpool -4.15

Arsenal -10.0 to beat Newcastle 2.05

Watford -0.93 to beat Fulham 5.17

Man Utd -1.77 to beat Wolves 3.36

Spurs -6.81 to beat Crystal Palace 2.51

Chelsea -1.48 to beat Brighton -0.73

Man City -2.25 to beat Cardiff 7.05

GURGLER PREMIER LEAGUE Predictions Week 32

Now our tips. Based on our opinion, research, study and ignorance. (In no particular order)

 MAN CITY to beat Fulham (6-1)
LEICESTER to beat Bournemouth (3-1)
DRAW – Brighton v Southampton (1-1)
WOLVES to beat Burnley (2-0)
MAN UTD to beat Watford (2-0)
CRYSTAL PALACE to beat Huddersfield (2-0)
DRAW – West Ham v Everton (0-0)
CHELSEA to beat Cardiff (4-1)
LIVERPOOL to beat Spurs (2-0)
ARSENAL to beat Newcastle (3-0)
WATFORD to beat Fulham (3-1)
DRAW – Wolves v Man Utd (0-0)
SPURS to beat Crystal Palace (3-0)
CHELSEA to beat Brighton (5-0)
MAN CITY to beat Cardiff (4-0)

Premier League Predictions Week 32 Mini Match by Match Preview

Here’s a quick run down of every game for Week 32, with a barely interesting stat included for those inclined.

FULHAM v MAN CITY

Kick Off: Saturday 12;30pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Man City 3 Fulham 0

Given the ominous form of Man City, Raheem Sterling’s form for both club and country, and the poor state Fulham are currently in, this could be any old score at Craven Cottage. Whilst Fulham don’t look quite so terrible under new manager Scott Parker, they shouldn’t and won’t trouble Man City.

Fulham are the real disappointment of the season. Whilst other teams were expected to be where they are around the bottom, there were high hopes for Fulham given their run of form to make and win the Championship playoffs, and their summer spending. One hopes for them that the relegation clauses are solid.

The first of two games against the bottom three for Man City. Top place back on the EPL ladder awaits.

Barely Interesting Fact: Fulham have scored at least one goal in their last 11 home games v Man City. It didn’t help them win mind you, 1 Win, 5 Draws, 5 Losses.

LEICESTER v BOURNEMOUTH

Kick Off: Saturday 3:00pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Bournemouth 4 Leicester 2

A battle of two midfield teams who have been one of the more disappointing home teams and away teams respectively recently. Leicester’s two recent wins under new manager Brendan Rodgers stopped a run of four straight home losses, which caused Puel to get Puel-led. Bournemouth’s away form has been even worse, more than doubly so, as their recent win against Huddersfield stopped a run on nine away losses.

Barely Interesting Fact: Leicester are the sixth best team for away form this season, Bournemouth are the eighth best at home.

BRIGHTON v SOUTHAMPTON

Kick Off: Saturday 3:00pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Southampton 2 Brighton 2

Without Brighton’s latest brace of wins against Huddersfield and rivals Crystal Palace taking them to 33 points, they could well be in the bottom three below Cardiff on 28 points. Although a loss here to a bottom six rival could drag them back into the relegation scrap again. 

Southampton are just three points behind, but the Saints have played one game more. Although Brighton’s spare game is Chelsea away. No matter who Brighton’s spare game is against, Southampton need to win this game to give themselves a chance at creeping away from Cardiff, who have a dreadful double header this week of Chelsea and Man City. 

Barely Interesting Fact: Brighton have won just two games in 16 home matches v Southampton going back to 1958.

BURNLEY v WOLVES

Kick Off: Saturday 3:00pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Wolves 1 Burnley 0

Burnley are in some trouble now, having lost four in a row, they are now just two points above Cardiff in 18th. In the process they have now conceded the second highest amount of goals. Cardiff have a game in hand too, but their two fixtures look like a realistic return of zero points – Chelsea & Man City).

Wolves are ticking along nicely, easily the best promoted team since the mighty Ipswich Town shocked everyone back in the early 2000’s. There’s a lot more money behind Wolves tilt though, and one wonders how long winning the Everton Cup will be acceptable.

Barely Interesting Fact: Burnley have only beaten Wolves three times at home since 2000. Six losses  and some draws were in that run.

MAN UTD v WATFORD

Kick Off: Saturday 3:00pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Watford 1 Man Utd 2

All of a sudden Man Utd are beatable, having now lost two games in a row – Arsenal in the League and Wolves in the FA Cup. The loss handed advantage back to Arsenal for the race for fourth place and Champions League, but United wouldn’t have got anywhere near this had they kept a hold of Jose.

Watford aren’t completely hopeless on the road, in fact they’ve scored almost as many points away than home. They recently flogged Cardiff in Wales too. But that record doesn’t extend to Old Trafford. And a win is hard to win for Watford. Although we are hoping Troy Deeney is fit and ready to go, to see how he tries to boss the Utd defence.

Barely Interesting Fact: Man Utd have won seven straight games at home to Watford.

CRYSTAL PALACE v HUDDERSFIELD

Kick Off: Saturday 3:00pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Huddersfield 0 Crystal Palace 1

Crystal Palace will be as close to safe in the Premier League with a win this weekend, and at home to Huddersfield looks an easy task. But Palace’s home form this season for the most part has been terrible, currently the second last for amount of points. But Wilfried Zaha is starting to look great again, perhaps the introduction of Michy Batshuayi has seen Zaha get a few less kicks than usual as teams have to focus on another attacking player.

Huddersfield could be officially relegated within the next two games, 

Barely Interesting Fact: Both teams have scored 11 goals in 15 matches home / away respectively.

WEST HAM v EVERTON

Kick Off: Saturday 5:30pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Everton 1 West Ham 3

After a truly entertaining game against Huddersfield, West Ham welcome one of the Premier League’s hardest teams to tip, aside from themselves.

West Ham are unbeaten at home in their last six games (4W 2D) while Everton have gone LWLWL in their last five away games. So that pattern means an Everton win then. They did beat Chelsea at home last match.

Barely Interesting Fact: Prior to last season’s 3-1 win over Everton at home, West Ham hadn’t beaten Everton at home since 2007, spanning 11 matches.

CARDIFF v CHELSEA

Kick Off: Sunday 2:05pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Chelsea 4 Cardiff 1

For many reasons you expect Cardiff to be tonked by Chelsea – Chelsea have more expensive and arguably better players – and just a few others would argue a better manager. But both sides are playing for something that is worth a lot of money to their respective clubs, so it won’t be easy.

A win for Cardiff would certainly have a few other managers very worried, and it will certainly worry Chelsea in the bid for top four European glory. They are just four points behind third placed Spurs. Although, Chelsea (or Arsenal) could win the Europa League which would make the race for fourth place obsolete for Chelsea.

Barely Interesting Fact: Chelsea have the equal worst goal difference for last six away games.

LIVERPOOL v SPURS

Kick Off: Sunday  4:30pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Spurs 1 Liverpool 2

The weekend’s premium games at the terrible timeslot for those in the western Pacific as per usual.

This is probably the hardest game left for Liverpool, given Chelsea’s currently terrible away form, so a win here is a must. Man City play two games this gameweek – against Fulham and Cardiff – so a loss could potentially see Liverpool four points behind City with six to play. Even a draw will see them more than a game behind as the three point gap is extended due to City’s goal difference, which will no doubt get boosted in the next week.

Spurs do have a shiny new stadium to get excited about if they lose.

Barely Interesting Fact: Spurs have only beaten Liverpool at home twice in the Premier League era. In 2011 and 1993.

ARSENAL v NEWCASTLE

Kick Off: Monday 8:00pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Newcastle 1 Arsenal 2

A must win game for Arsenal to maintain fourth place, and they should do it relatively easy against a Newcastle side who they have only been beaten by at home twice since 2000. And looking across the sides you can barely even compare the sides for quality. 

That should highlight the job that Benitez has done at Newcastle, with a side that is largely a Championship side who have done very well. Salomon Rondon is fast becoming a reliable source of goals, and in Miguel Almiron they have a star for the future.

Still won’t mean that Newcastle will beat Arsenal. But they have been competitive against the big six sides at times this season.

Barely Interesting Fact: Arsenal are leading our stat for exceeding the XG for this season, scoring 10 more goals than expected.

WATFORD v FULHAM

Kick Off: Tuesday 7:45pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Fulham 1 Watford 1

Given how bad the Fulham defence is (averaging 2.5 Goals per away game and no wins) you can see someone like Troy Deeney having a very good night out against Fulham. He has four goals in three games against Fulham.

Fulham may as well just go for it, as they won’t stay up this stage. Why not score a few goals to keep the fans happy. Their only sellable players could give themselves a decent shop window for a better next season.

Barely Interesting Fact: Fulham need one more draw to equal the infamous Derby County 2007-08 season away form. Despite securing only 11 points in total, they managed three draws on the road. One more than Fulham.

WOLVES v MAN UTD

Kick Off: Tuesday 7:45pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Man Utd 1 Wolves 1

Wolves proved their credential against big sides by putting Man Utd out of the FA Cup, with ease.

That was the second loss in a row under Ole Gunnar Solskjær, quite the come down after their Champions League heroics. Injuries haven’t helped, but perhaps the magic is starting to wear off just a little. Evidence for the truth in that lies at Molineux on Tuesday night.

It is a tricky double header for Utd, with Watford decent away from home (except against Man City and Liverpool) and Wolves also strong. Wolves could realistically look to getting four points from their two games and consolidating their best of the rest tag.

Barely Interesting Fact: Wolves have won two of their last three home games against Man Utd.

SPURS v CRYSTAL PALACE

Kick Off: Wednesday 7:45pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Crystal Palace 0 Spurs 1

This will all be about the shiny new stadium’s debut after a long delay. It will no doubt be worth the wait, and surely after 3/4 of a season of disappointment for Spurs fans, they won’t fail to win on Wednesday night.

Hopefully the honour of being first to score at the new stadium doesn’t get in the way of the Spurs players. It will probably be Harry Kane anyway.

But Crystal Palace are quite capable of spoiling the party. They have been super competitive on the road this season, and have beaten Man City no less. And they knocked them out of the FA Cup in January.

Barely Interesting Fact: Crystal Palace are three points better off than Spurs in last six form. They are 6th, Spurs way down in 15th.

CHELSEA v BRIGHTON

Kick Off: Wednesday 7:45pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Brighton 1 Chelsea 2

Brighton’s win at Crystal Palace last time out broke a streak of 5 losses and a draw prior to that. Overall they have the fourth worst away record, but their 12th best home form has kept them five points above the drop for now.

Chelsea need to win both of their fixtures in this game week to have any chance of claiming a top four spot, and if they can’t get six points from their games, they don’t deserve it.

Barely Interesting Fact: Brighton haven’t won a game at Stamford Bridge or scored a goal.

MAN CITY v CARDIFF

Kick Off: Wednesday 7:45pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Cardiff 0 Man City 5

Cardiff have won two of their past five away games, but that probably won’t scare Man City too much.

It seems a matter of how many and who will score the goals in this one. And Man City have really punished sides at home this year in all competitions. They’ve already beaten them 5-0 away.

Barely Interesting Fact: Cardiff last beat Man City in Manchester in 1961.

2018-2019 Premier League Tipping Competition Results

THE GURGLER

2018-2019 Tipping Results – 158/304 – 52% – (18 Correct Scores)

Last Week Tipping Results –  3/5

Best – 7/10 Week 1, 3, 4, 7, 15, 25

OPPOSITION

2018-2019 Results – 139/304 – 46%

Week 1 – 6/10 – Week 1 Form from last 5 seasons
Week 2 – 5/10 – Change in Market Value after Transfer Window
Week 3 – 4/10 – Red Cards from last 5 seasons
Week 4 – 7/10 – Form v Post Sir Alex Man Utd
Week 5 – 5/10 – Post International Break Form
Week 6 – 3/10 – Avoiding Russian Spies
Week 7 – 4/10 – Brexit
Week 8 – 6/10 – v Jose Mourinho
Week 9 – 4/10 – Sacked Managers / Tenure
Week 10 – 4/10 – Fighting Managers
Week 11 – 7/10 – v Leicester City
Week 12 – 4/10 – US Mid Term Elections
Week 13 – 6/10 – Claudio Ranieri
Week 14 – 5/10 – Own Goals
Week 15 – 5/10 – Midweek Form (Last 5 Seasons)
Week 16 – 2/10 – Hate
Week 17 – 4/10 – Dangerous Nickname
Week 18 – 5/10 – Christmas Shopping
Week 19 – 4/10 – Boxing Day Form
Week 20 – 7/10 – 2018 Form
Week 21 – 1/10 – New Year’s Eve
Week 22 – 7/10 – January Form
Week 23 – 3/10 – Traffic
Week 24 – 2/10 – Post FA Cup 3rd / 4th Round Form
Week 25 – 4/10 – Happiness
Week 26 – 6/10 – Valentine’s Days
Week 27 – 6/10 – Divorce
Week 28 – 5/10 – Sack Race
Week 29 – 8/10 – Wages
Week 30 – 5/10 – Recycling
Week 31 – 1/5 – Gossip

2018-2019 Premier League XG Stats