Premier League Predictions Week 30 – Gurgler v Recycling

Too much football is barely enough, and if you feel that way, you’ll be glad for our Premier League Predictions Week 30.

Every week we offer up our Premier League predictions, along with a mini preview of each match, with a few best bets in an alternative Premier League preview.

We also put our tips up against a competitor, usually not human though, and based on some football stat or general life. This week our tipping opponent is based on the recycling rate of each region in the UK.

It’s a lot like the BBC’s Lawros tips, but better. Arguably.

Premier League Predictions Week 30 – Gurgler v Recycling

TIPS BACKGROUND: It’s Week 30 of the Premier League, and we are starting to run out of ideas for opposition tips, and thought of recycling a few old ideas, and then we came up with the thought of using recycling itself.

The theory is that the better recyclers the city is, the better they feel about their contribution to the environment, the more they pass on that great feeling to their football team, and the better their team will play. Apparently according to us. So the city who recycles best gets the tip.

GURGLER PREMIER LEAGUE Predictions Week 30

But first our tips. Based on our opinion, research, study and ignorance. (In no particular order)

CRYSTAL PALACE to beat Brighton (2-1)
HUDDERSFIELD  to beat Bournemouth (1-0)
LEICESTER to beat Fulham (2-1)
WEST HAM to beat Cardiff( 2-0)
NEWCASTLE to beat Everton (3-1)
DRAW – Southampton v Spurs (1-1)
MAN CITY to beat Watford (3-1)
LIVERPOOL to beat Burnley (4-0)
CHELSEA to beat Wolves (3-0)
MAN UTD to beat Arsenal (3-1)

PREMIER LEAGUE Predictions Week 30 – Recycling

Recycling % in brackets.

BRIGHTON (47%) to beat Crystal Palace (33%)
HUDDERSFIELD (49%) to beat Huddersfield (42%)
LEICESTER (43.5%) to beat Fulham (33%)
CARDIFF (40%) to beat West Ham (33%)
EVERTON (44.5%) to beat Newcastle (34.5%)
SOUTHAMPTON (49%)  to beat Spurs( 33%)
MAN CITY (44.5%) to beat Watford (33%)
DRAW – Liverpool (44.5%) v Burnley (44.5%)
WOLVES (40%) to beat Chelsea (33%)
MAN UTD (44.5%) to beat Arsenal (33%)

Premier League Predictions Week 30 Barely Interesting Stats

Before we get into the match by match interesting stats, and stuff, we have compiled a quick table comparing last six form vs season form. It has been sorted by % difference.

Premier League Predictions Week 30 Mini Match by Match Preview

Here’s a quick run down of every game for Week 30, with a barely interesting stat included for those inclined.

CRYSTAL PALACE v BRIGHTON

Kick Off: Saturday 12:30pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Brighton 3 Crystal Palace 1

Not a quite a derby geographically, but a feisty rivalry none the less, and a game that neither will want to lose, lest they waste a good result last weekend and get sucked back into the relegation race.

Brighton steadied a rapdily sinking ship last weekend with a win over Huddersfield, and now have crawled away from the relegation zone to five points clear. Lucky as their ordinary away record against a Crystal Palace team that has found form would have been worrying. Crystal Palace have found form as Wilfried Zaha has found goals. Palace actually top the above graph for recent form v season form. They are second worst at home for the season.

Barely Interesting Fact: The player involved in this game with the best scoring strike rate against Brighton, is Brighton’s striker Glenn Murray, who scored 5 goals and 2 assists in 5 games in a previous life with Crystal Palace. Interestingly, Zaha has almost as good a record of 5 goals and 2 assists in 9 games. Imagine them together.

HUDDERSFIELD v BOURNEMOUTH

Kick Off: Saturday 3:00pm
Previous 2018-19 Result: Bournemouth 2 Huddersfield 1

Huddersfield are doomed for relegation, but they are certainly going down swinging, a close loss against Brighton, and a win against Wolves in consecutive games their recent record.

Somehow Bournemouth are still 12th, their home record keeping them so high, as their away form is dreadful. They have now lost nine in a row away. Interestingly, as bad as Bournemouth’s away form seems, their 2018/19 win average away from home is only just lower than their overall away win % from their start in the Premier League. 18/19 Away Win % = 21%, Overall EPL away win % = 22%.

Four of the last seven games between these two have seen 4-0, 4-0, 4-1 and 5-0 scorelines. The wins are shared between both. Let’s hope we get one of those this weekend.

Barely Interesting Fact: Bournemouth (2.50) have actually conceded more goals per away game this year than Fulham (2.46) who haven’t won away. 

LEICESTER v FULHAM

Kick Off: Saturday 3:00pm
Previous 2018-19 Result: Fulham 1 Leicester 1

The Brendan Rodgers reign started off with a loss to Watford last weekend, so a nice home game against the Premier League’s worst away team who have yet to win a game on the road is as nice a gift as you could be given. Although Fulham have a new boss too, so the new manager bounces can balance each other out. In fact Fulham looked far less hapless last weekend in Scott Parker’s first match in charge.

If it wasn’t for Leicester’s win at home to Brighton two matches ago, the Foxes would have the second worst home record. It is still ordinary with just five wins for the season, but the last win broke a four game losing streak.

Barely Interesting Fact: Fulham have lost only once at Leicester since 2000, and that was a 4-3. OK, there have only been five games, but still a barely interesting stat.

CARDIFF v WEST HAM

Kick Off: Saturday 3:00pm
Previous 2018-19 Result: West Ham 3 Cardiff 1

The scrap to avoid the last relegation spot rages on, with Cardiff currently occupying the dreaded 18th spot, but could take advantage of Southampton’s tough game v Spurs to leapfrog them again. 

In all honesty, the fact that Cardiff aren’t looking doomed at this stage of the season is a credit to them, and to manager Neil Warnock who looked an absolute certainty to be among the first three bosses sacked. They may still go down, but at least they given it everything. Their recent form is the worry, losing three games in a row now with a total of 1-10.

West Ham are solid midfield, but their away form is a worry, they have lost four of their last five away. But they did beat an in form Newcastle last start at home to show some glimpses of form themselves.

Barely Interesting Fact: Cardiff have won this fixture just three times in the last 60 years. (27 Matches)

NEWCASTLE v EVERTON

Kick Off: Saturday 3:00pm
Previous 2018-19 Result: Everton 1 Newcastle 1

This may not be as bad a game as it would have been a few months ago. Newcastle is great form at home with four wins in a row at St James’ Park, Everton had a big win at Cardiff and a strong draw against Liverpool in recent games. Both teams could hardly have been more impressive in their last respective home and away game.

Newcastle’s burst of home wins has seen them move just about far enough away from relegation, and hard to believe that a Magpies win will see them within three points of Everton.

Although we mention it every week, this week is the week Miguel Almiron scores up a storm.

Barely Interesting Fact: Newcastle haven’t beaten Everton in their last seven games.

SOUTHAMPTON v SPURS

Kick Off: Saturday 3:00pm
Previous 2018-19 Result: Spurs 3 Southampton 1

Spurs come into the this game on a high of completing the double over Dortmund in the Champions League. But it is the league they worry about, especially after the manager’s comments post an Fa Cup loss to Crystal Palace. Spurs have gone from challenging for the title in a strong third place, to looking over their shoulder at the chasing pack. They’ll probably hold onto third, but can’t slip up here against Southampton as they are still yet to play Liverpool and Man City.

Southampton have won just three times at home this season, and their home record is the fourth worst, but they have also lost only five times, and their goal difference of minus four shows they are always competitive at St Mary’s.

Barely Interesting Fact: Southampton last beat Spurs at home in 2005. They have yet to beat Spurs at home since their most recent arrival back to the Premier League.

MANCHESTER CITY v WATFORD

Kick Off: Saturday 5:30pm
Previous 2018-19 Result: Watford 1 Man City 2

Man City are back in first place, and for many that is title race over. But they still have to play in the FA Cup, where Liverpool can have a break. Despite losing one game a piece in the League since January 1, Man City have outscored Liverpool by eight points, and have even outscored their city rivals by one point. A return of 22-4 is not bad either over those nine games.

Talking of form since new year’s Watford are going well, especially if you overlook their thrashing at Liverpool. They are currently the sixth best team since the turn of the year, and fifth best on the road. And we lover Troy Deeney scoring goals in his past two games.

Barely Interesting Fact: Since Watford’s return to the Premier League they have lost all seven games to Man City. For a total of 22-3. Watford last won this fixture in 1989.

LIVERPOOL v BURNLEY

Kick Off: Sunday 12:00pm
Previous 2018-19 Result: Burnley 1 Liverpool 3

Liverpool may only have lost once in the league this season, but their recent run of draws has seen them lose the lead of the Premier League again, and they have scored fewer points in their last six than Crystal Palace and Wolves.

Burnley were one of the form teams in 2019, rivalling the top six sides, but two losses in a row against sides around them in the table has seen them drop to 16th, and just five points above the drop. And below the teams that have just beat them.

Barely Interesting Fact: Burnley have scored one goal against Liverpool in each of their last four fixtures. They have also lost three and drawn once.

CHELSEA v WOLVES

Kick Off: Sunday 2:00pm
Previous 2018-19 Result: Wolves 2 Chelsea 1

The heat on Chelsea boss Sarri has died down a little, and although he probably won’t be in charge next season, it looks like he might survive this season. Chelsea can still finish as high as third given Spurs’ recent wobbles, but fourth is more realistic in the great battle between them Man Utd and Arsenal. They didn’t flog Fulham as some expected last weekend, they did just bring in a new manager, but Higuain was among the goals, and there was an assist from Eden Hazard, so perhaps a corner is ready to be turned.

Wolves continue to impress, and thoroughly deserve their position as best of the rest. They did beat Chelsea earlier in the year at home, but their record away to Chelsea is terrible.

Barely Interesting Fact: Wolves last avoided defeat at Stamford Bridge in 1982 in the old second division. The last four fixtures at Chelsea have totaled 15-0.

ARSENAL v MANCHESTER UNITED

Kick Off: Sunday 4:00pm
Previous 2018-19 Result: Man Utd 2 Arsenal 2

The premium game of the weekend, in the awful premium timeslot for those outside of Europe and North America.

Normally games between the big sides are boring affairs, but this fixture always seems to produce action, and there have been a minimum of two goals in each game over the last five seasons.

With Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea covered by just two points, and Spurs three points above, the top four positions is just as great a battle as for first place. A draw in this game could see Chelsea leapfrog both of these sides.

Barely Interesting Fact: Man Utd have won 3-1 on their last two trips to Arsenal.

2018-2019 Premier League Tipping Competition Results

THE GURGLER

2018-2019 Tipping Results – 151/289 – 52% – (16 Correct Scores)

Last Week Tipping Results –  6/10

Best – 7/10 Week 1, 3, 4, 7, 15, 25

OPPOSITION

2018-2019 Results – 133/289 – 46%

Week 1 – 6/10 – Week 1 Form from last 5 seasons
Week 2 – 5/10 – Change in Market Value after Transfer Window
Week 3 – 4/10 – Red Cards from last 5 seasons
Week 4 – 7/10 – Form v Post Sir Alex Man Utd
Week 5 – 5/10 – Post International Break Form
Week 6 – 3/10 – Avoiding Russian Spies
Week 7 – 4/10 – Brexit
Week 8 – 6/10 – v Jose Mourinho
Week 9 – 4/10 – Sacked Managers / Tenure
Week 10 – 4/10 – Fighting Managers
Week 11 – 7/10 – v Leicester City
Week 12 – 4/10 – US Mid Term Elections
Week 13 – 6/10 – Claudio Ranieri
Week 14 – 5/10 – Own Goals
Week 15 – 5/10 – Midweek Form (Last 5 Seasons)
Week 16 – 2/10 – Hate
Week 17 – 4/10 – Dangerous Nickname
Week 18 – 5/10 – Christmas Shopping
Week 19 – 4/10 – Boxing Day Form
Week 20 – 7/10 – 2018 Form
Week 21 – 1/10 – New Year’s Eve
Week 22 – 7/10 – January Form
Week 23 – 3/10 – Traffic
Week 24 – 2/10 – Post FA Cup 3rd / 4th Round Form
Week 25 – 4/10 – Happiness
Week 26 – 6/10 – Valentine’s Days
Week 27 – 6/10 – Divorce
Week 28 – 5/10 – Sack Race
Week 30 – 8/10 – Wages