Champions League Matchday 5 Predictions – Gurgler v Expected Goals

The Champions League returns this week, and like most football we just can’t get enough and have our Champions League Matchday 5 Predictions ready.

And as ever we put our tips up against a unique opponent, usually based on a football statistic but sometimes not, much like our semi popular Premier League tips.

We’ll also throw in a minimum of information for a quick preview of Champions League Matchday 5 Predictions for those on the go.

Time to set the alarm and get up that little bit early in Australia, or get home early from work/the pub elsewhere in the world for Champions League Matchday 5 Predictions .

Champions League Matchday 5 Predictions

Gurgler v Expected Goals

Opponent Tips Background: The new big stat in Football is the Expected goals measure, where some some sports nerd/boffin has worked out how many goals a team should have scored from their various chances.

So if it good enough for sports nerds, we’ll also use it to get opposition tips. 

We haven’t just taken the Expected Goals, but have taken the figure for the difference between the expected goals and actual goals scored. The bigger the negative difference, the more the team has scored more than expected. So lowest score wins.

There are a few N/A as Expected goals only seems to cover the top 5 leagues and Russia. So a team with NA won’t get the tip unless the other team’s XG Difference score is in the positive.

Then there’s our selections, which are based on a mixture of listening to multiple podcasts and reading way too many websites, added with ignorance to all of that with our own thoughts. 

Champions League Matchday 5 Predictions – Our Tips

ATLETICO MADRID to beat Monaco
DORTMUND to beat Bruges
BARCELONA to beat PSV
SPURS to beat Inter
DRAW PSG v Liverpool
NAPOLI to beat Red Star
GALATASARAY to beat Lokomotiv Moscow
DRAW – Porto v Schalke
AJAX to beat AEK
BAYERN to beat Benfica
DRAW – Lyon v Man City
DRAW – Hoffenheim v Shakhtar Donetsk
CSKA MOSCOW to beat Viktoria Plzen
DRAW – Roma v Real Madrid
MAN UTD to beat Young Boys
JUVENTUS to beat Valencia

Champions League Matchday 5 Predictions – Expected Goals to Goals Scored

XG Difference to Goals Scored in brackets

ATLETICO MADRID (-2.84) to beat Monaco (4.31)
DORTMUND (-10.52) to beat Bruges (NA)
BARCELONA (-4.02) to beat PSV (NA)
INTER (-3.87) to beat Spurs  (0.85)
PSG (-9.25) v Liverpool (0.28)
NAPOLI (-3.69) to beat Red Star (NA)
LOKOMOTIV MOSCOW (-2.61) to beat Galatasaray (NA)
PORTO (NA) to beat Schalke (6.08)
DRAW – AEK v Ajax (Both NA)
BENFICA (NA) to beat Bayern (1.72)
LYON (-2.89) to beat Man City (-1.28)
HOFFENHEIM (-0.4) to beat Shakhtar Donetsk (NA)
CSKA MOSCOW (-0.97) to beat Viktoria Plzen (NA)
ROMA (0.5) to beat Real Madrid (3.54)
YOUNG BOYS to beat Man Utd (0.51) 
JUVENTUS (-1.00) to beat Valencia (9.09)

Champions League Predictions Form So Far

GURGLER
Matchday  1 – 6/16 – Terrible
Matchday 2 – 10/16 – Better
Matchday 3 – 9/16 – Less Better
Matchday 4 – 6/16 – Back to Terrible

OPPONENT
Matchday 1 – 6/16 – Current League Position
Matchday 2 – 6/16 – National Titles Won
Matchday 3 – 9/16 – Who Scored Team Rating
Matchday 4 – 8/16 – Value of Clubs

Champions League Matchday 5 – Four Games to Watch

You can’t watch everything, well actually you can if you have Optus Sport and no job or life, so we select our four games to watch for the Champions League Matchday 4 ahead.

Times in ADST for the poor souls who have to get up early.

LYON v MANCHESTER CITY (Tuesday)

Manchester City are one of the three form teams in Europe, along with Dortmund and Juventus, but for all their league dominance there is still the Champions League to be won to justify their whole football operation. This week they face Lyon, who are the only team to beat Manchester City this season from an earlier round. Lyon are currently second in Ligue 1, the highest position available for a team not called PSG.

ROMA v REAL MADRID (Tuesday)

A game that features last season’s winner and semi finalist of this very competition. Both are struggling this year, and both come into the game on the back of a shock loss in the league on the weekend. Roma are not travelling that well in Serie A, currently sitting seventh and helped Udinese out of the bottom three after a loss. Real’s loss and performance to our favourite Spanish team Eibar was quite the surprise, and leaves them in 6th place. Hiring the temp coach as a permanent hasn’t started off well. Who will recover in the Champions League is the big question.

SPURS v INTER (Wednesday) 

A head to head between two sides fighting for the final qualification spot in the group after Barcelona. Spurs got a super win over Chelsea at Wembley on the weekend. Inter won too, beating Frosinone 3-0. Spurs need to win, and probably will.

PSG v LIVERPOOL (Wednesday)

Probably the biggest game of the Champions League Matchday 5, and the tightest race for the two qualification spots. Liverpool are still unbeaten in the Premier League, but have a record of two wins, two losses in the Champions League this season. PSG are going even better in the league, setting a new big European league record with a 100% start. Despite losing one less game than Liverpool, they sit behind them in the standing in 3rd. So much to play for, and some awesome talent on hand.

How to Watch Champions League in Australia

Sadly the Champions League action is now on Optus Sport.

Not that the Optus Sport coverage is that bad, when it works, but it just means another $15 a month to follow decent football.

Perhaps the addition of the Champions League might tempt some to join, it means you can watch everything and EPL.

Note: we aren’t paid or are receiving Optus for free, it is quality coverage, but are quite happy to receive it for nothing if they offer.

Champions League Matchday 5 Super Stat

Here is the current list of team’s Expected Goals v Reality Difference. Remember the worst the figure, the more goals above expectation the team has scored.