We are gathered here today to say goodbye to Ipswich Town Championship status.
For years now Ipswich Town Championship status has been a beacon of mediocrity, sometimes almost a point of humour. Certainly has been at Carrow Road where the home crowd applaud on whichever minute represented the amount of years of Ipswich Town Championship status.
At least Ipswich Town fans could say we hadn’t been down in League One like Norwich had in recent years. Used to be able to say that anyway.
IS THE IPSWICH TOWN CHAMPIONSHIP STORY OVER?
The Ipswich Town Championship story looks like it is coming to an end this season. They have gone from boringly mediocre to downright awful, and destined to go from the second tier to the third tier for the first time in 60 years.
A few years ago we even described them as the most mediocre sporting team on the planet.
Oh, how we wish we were still moaning about a 0-0 against a side we probably could have beaten by didn’t.
Currently after 15 games Ipswich Town are dead last, have won just once, and are already five points from safety.
They beat Swansea away just before the International break, and many thought perhaps this was the beginning of something good.
It wasn’t, as Ipswich have been truly woeful since. No wins, no points and just awful.
If a win can’t spark a turn around, how can three straight awful losses. The QPR result was sad, a sign that things weren’t going to get better, but much worse was coming.
Maybe they needed to change managers….
A MANAGER CHANGE HELPS RIGHT?
And they have changed the manager. Paul Hurst is gone, and in comes former Norwich and Stoke City manager Paul Lambert.
Usually that can be a good thing, but we have done some digging.
Of the 23 teams that have sacked their manager while residing in the bottom three in the Championship in the last five seasons, just nine have made it to safety.
Even worse is that just two teams that were 24th and last have survived after changing managers from seven teams. However none in the last three seasons saw the team placed 24th stay up.
On average teams in the relegation zone over the past five season in the Championship have gained just 1.9 places at the end of the season from their table position when they sacked the manager.
So on average, the average 1.9 table position improvement won’t be enough. And it is hard to see Ipswich Town doing anything other than average.
So will a manager change help? Nope, not on average. Not for Ipswich Town Championship status.
WHAT ABOUT A FORMER NORWICH MANAGER?
The appointment of Paul Lambert came pretty quick, snapped up as if he were hot property. A Mick McCarthy type appointment without any of the Mick McCarthy.
Both have had promotions from the Championship, and both have had some awful seasons in the Premier League, including relegations.
Lambert’s signing pretty uninspiring, especially in a time where the club needs massive inspiration.
His win record from Aston Villa is in the low 30’s, and while we acknowledge that some of those seasons were spent in the EPL, some of them also weren’t. His promotions with Norwich are a handy stat, but so were Mick’s.
For now we can hope it doesn’t get worse.
WHERE DID IT GO WRONG
As much as many have been super keen to tell Ipswich fans you got what you asked for, Mick McCarthy hung around too long. Yes he did well under strict budget conditions, but with a chunk of the club getting bored of the football, and the results seeing Ipswich drift further down the table, perhaps he could have left in last year’s off season. Certainly under his watch very few of the potential superstars got game time, and a lot blossomed after going on loan or leaving completely.
Every transfer window Ipswich were involved in got slightly worse. How many times have Ipswich chased a player only for them to take up elsewhere. Josh Windass being this pre season’s disappointment. Same with managers, with Gerrard and Lampard on the market, they couldn’t be convinced of the future.
Hell, even now Sunderland manager Jack Ross chose a busted arse third tier team over Ipswich Town. The Cowley brothers chose the fourth tier. Maybe all of them presume they’ll be a better chance at the Championship with their current clubs.
Ipswich just isn’t a place where anyone wants to go.
Maybe owner Marcus Evans just needs to add that little extra to get some action in January, and hopefully it isn’t too late.
IS THERE ANY HOPE?
Where there is still 31 games to go there is always hope.
Looking at the record of Paul Lambert from Aston Villa onwards, he has averaged 1.2 points a game. Add that average to the remaining fixtures and we get a total of 46 points. This total actually has meant survival in four of the last five seasons.
So yes there is still hope, but we need some sign of life soon to save Ipswich Town Championship status.
The silver lining is that the amount of TV games that Ipswich Town feature in won’t drop too much.
Ipswich will be survived in the Championship by Norwich City, which will really piss them off.
[…] For barely interesting facts, we have the full list of all team’s midweek games stats at the end. Less interesting to most was that the best non current EPL team for midweek form is Ipswich Town in 6th, and only beaten by five of the top six teams. Pity it will make no difference to our beloved Town as they sail off into League One. […]