The 2025 NRL Premiership is almost upon us, and there are opinions a plenty from all parts of the rugby league world about who will or could win the title, finish last and everything in between.
The Gurgler is no different, with plenty of opinion about rugby league, but instead of predicting a winner for 2025, we are here to provide the wettest of blankets about every NRL team’s chances this season with our annual Why Your Team Can’t Win the 2025 NRL Premiership.
Here in 2025 betting odds order is our team by team guide.
Why Your Team Can’t Win the 2025 NRL Premiership
MELBOURNE STORM
A LOSING GRAND FINALIST HASN’T WON THE NEXT SEASON’S NRL PREMIERSHIP SINCE 2017
It has been almost a decade since the team that lost the Grand Final in the previous season has gone on to win the title the next season. Although, looking at that last occurrence, it was actually the Melbourne Storm who beat the Cowboys after losing to the Sharks in the 2016 Grand Final.
Going further back to 1998 and the start of the modern NRL, it has happened only four times. But three of those occurrences was the Melbourne Storm (two stripped due to boats). The other was Manly.
So again our argument is pretty thin. In fact, in recent seasons losing a Grand Final doesn’t just mean you don’t win the next season’s title. In 2024 the last three teams to lose the Grand Final all sacked their coach. Although, we can’t see anyone trying to dare to sack Craig Bellamy. Or even think about it. He’d know. And be angry.
PENRITH PANTHERS
NO TEAM HAS WON FIVE IN A ROW SINCE THE 1960’s
OK, starting off pretty thin here, by saying a team that has won four premierships in a row can’t win five, just because it hasn’t happened in 60 odd years. We said the same thing before last season too and that turned out wrong. But then again, at least one of these predictions will be wrong. Unless one team wins the title then loses it for Salary Cap issues. It happens. But not to Penrith.
You could also say the Panthers won’t win because they have lost key players. But again, you could say that for the last few years.
Our arguments are pretty thin here.
BRISBANE BRONCOS
NO COACH HAS WON THE STATE OF ORIGIN FOR NSW ONE YEAR AND THE NRL PREMIERSHIP THE NEXT
The Broncos have turned to former Rabbitohs Premiership winning coach Michael Maguire to turn around an alleged bad culture, reports of rifts with player groups and a side who looked lazy at times. Hmmm, not sure how that will work with a coach who is hard on players, and is aligned with Adam Reynolds from their Rabbitohs days together.
In fact it could end up a worse sh!tfight at the Broncos than last year, and there is room to move downwards on the ladder if that happens. It is hard to believe this team is third favourite in the betting for the 2025 NRL Premiership.
One upside on finishing 12th the previous season, there has been one occurrence of a team finishing 12th and winning the following season’s NRL Premiership, and that was the Penrith Panthers in 2003.
Broncos also had a 0% win record on a Sunday in 2024, so if you can’t win on a Sunday, you can’t win the title. Unless Channel Nein move the game, which they won’t.
CRONULLA SHARKS
NO TEAM IN THE NRL ERA HAS WON THE PREMIERSHIP AFTER FINISHING 4TH THE PREVIOUS SEASON
There’s a few reasons to doubt the Sharks Premiership winning ability, their mediocre finals record since winning their only title in 2016, the lack of water animal-based club nicknames for winning premierships in the NRL era, and the fact that teams finishing 4th in the previous season have failed to win a premiership since 1998.
Fourth isn’t the only previous season position to see no premiership wins the following season. 7th, 10th, 11th and greater than 12th in the previous season have yet to win a title the following season. Which rules out Manly, Dolphins, St George Illawarra, Warriors, Gold Coast, Parramatta, South Sydney and Wests Tigers.
MANLY SEA EAGLES
NO SIDE HAS WON A COMPETITION AFTER FINSIHING SEVENTH THE SEASON BEFORE
Nit picking here, but also factual, no team has won an NRL premiership after finishing seventh in the previous season.
The good news here is that finishing seventh the previous hasn’t stopped side from winning the minor premiership twice the following season. But it is a minor premiership, not a real one.
BULLDOGS
THERE HAS BEEN ONLY TWO NRL PREMIERS WITH THEIR CLUB NAME STARTING A to L SINCE THE BULLDOGS LAST TITLE TRIUMPH
Yes that’s true, and normally who’d care. But since the Bulldogs won in 2004, only the Broncos in 2006 and Cronulla Sharks have won titles in the first letter range of A to L. There’s plenty of Melbourne, Penrith, Sydney Roosters and others since.
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
WAYNE BENNETT HAS NEVER WON AN NRL PREMIERSHIP AT A CLUB HE HAS RETURNED TO
OK, so this is a very low sample group, given at NRL level he has only returned to the Broncos for a second stint, but the stats don’t lie, his 2015 Grand Final appearance didn’t end in a premiership. Although, if you count his BRL experience then he did win a title in a second stint with….Souths Magpies. In 1985. Maybe it is an omen after all.
Bennett also returned to coaching Queensland State of Origin and won, twice.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
ROOSTERS APPALLING RECORD v PENRITH AND MELBOURNE
Given that two teams most likely to make the Grand Final, again, are Melbourne and Penrith, you would want a good record vs those teams to win a premiership. Sadly for Roosters fans, they have won just one of their last 22 games vs those clubs combined going back to 2020. The year after the Roosters last NRL title. Blame Covid maybe?
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
TOO MUCH TRAVELLING & EARLY
According to our 2025 Draw Analysis, the North Queensland Cowboys have to do the equal top amount of travelling in 2025 alongside the Warriors. Worse still for the Cowboys is they cover over 10,000kms before the first six rounds are up. Putting a huge stress on their resources early.
Not that travel has stopped them winning any premierships, but it does slow them down enough to stop them winning multiple premierships. Including this season.
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
THE WARRIORS HAVE NEVER MADE THE TOP FOUR AFTER FINISHING 13TH THE PREVIOUS SEASON
It’s true and obscure, but the Warriors have never made the top four after finishing 13th the previous season. But in good news for fans of the Warriors, and who isn’t even at a casual level, the Warriors have made the Top Four after finishing 8th, 10th and 15th the previous season. So a bad finish the previous season doesn’t rule out top four, and who knows from there.
Well that, and all the travel they have to do.
PARRAMATTA EELS
PARRAMATTA’S HOME RECORD WILL NEED TO IMPROVE – NO SIDE HAS WON A PREMIERSHIP WITH LESS THAN 50% HOME RECORD
Parramatta’s home record in 2024 was W5 L7, which also factors in a flogging the Dolphins gave them in Darwin, but that’s their fault for taking a home game thousands of kilometres away. But the worst home record for the last 20 season was W8 L4, so the Eels will need to bump up the home wins to win premiership/s. The lack of home wins also rules out Wests Tigers, South Sydney, Gold Coast and the Broncos.
WESTS TIGERS
NO TEAM HAS GONE FROM LAST TO THE TITLE
Obviously it’s very hard to go from last to first, and as such it will be hard for the Wests Tigers to win the 2025 NRL Premiership.
The upside stat is that teams that finish last the previous season have gone on to make the Top 4 four times and the Top 8 four times. Either of those finishes are an obvious improvement on the trio of spoons they have fed themselves in recent seasons.
DOLPHINS
THE WAYNE BENNETT EFFECT
Wayne Bennett is one of rugby league’s greatest coaches, and when he leaves a club he leaves one of rugby league’s greatest holes.
Not only has a team not won the NRL title the season after Wayne Bennett leaves, only three times has a team made the finals within three seasons of Wayne Bennett leaving. Needless to say none of them won the title.
The upside of having a new coach is that occasionally a coach wins a premiership in their first season, like Ricky Stuart at the Roosters in 2002. So maybe the Woolf will be howling at the Dolphins after all in 2025.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
ONLY ONE SIDE HAS SCORD LESS THAN 500 POINTS IN THE PREVIOUS SEASON AND WON THE PREMIERSHIP IN THE NEXT SEASON
So Cronulla in 2015 scored 469 points, but went on to claim their first ever premiership in 2016. Perhaps scoring less than 500 points and winning a premiership only applies to a side who have yet to win a premiership.
For the record, Newcastle weren’t the only ones not to score 500 points in 2024. This stat doesn’t just rule out Newcastle, but gives extra reasons why Canberra, Gold Coast, South Sydney and the Wests Tigers.
GOLD COAST TITANS
GOLD COAST SPORTING TEAMS DON’T WIN SH!T
The Gold Coast is famous for a lot of things, beaches, Ripley’s Beleive It Or Not, better Theme Parks, Warwick Capper, but one thing the Gold Coast isn’t known for…..winning.
Here is a brief history of Gold Coast sporting teams.
GOLD COAST GIANTS/SEAGULLS/CHARGERS/TITANS(NRL) – 1988-1998 + 2007 to Current – Best finish 3rd. Various names have led to various success, albeit moderate success. Not winning.
GOLD COAST TITANS (NRLW) – 2021 to Current – Best finish Grand Finalist. Have at least made a Grand Final, the last possible finishing position without winning.
GOLD COAST SUNS (AFL) – 2011 to Current – Best finish 12th. Lots of fanfare for their arrival, not lots of winning, or even finals since.
GOLD COAST SUNS (AFLW) – 2020 to Current – Best finish 5th. Not winners, but their best finishing position is better than the men.
GOLD COAST FC (Football) – 2009-2012 – Best finish 3rd – surprisingly competitive in three seasons, probably because of Shane Smeltz. Not Clive Palmer.
GOLD COAST COUGARS / ROLLERS (NBL) – 1990 to 1996 – Best finish 8th. Not even Australian Basketball legend Larry Sengstock could inspire Gold Coast Basketball into winners.
DAIKYO DOLPHINS (BASEBALL) – 1990 to 1993 – WINNERS – So we have actually found a professional sports teams on the Gold Coast that can described as winners. Although on a technicality the team was called Daikyo Dolphins not Gold Coast, so doesn’t count.
CANBERRA RAIDERS
RICKY STUART HAS NEVER WON AN NRL TITLE AS COACH OF THE CANBERRA RAIDERS
The seemingly unsackable Ricky Stuart enters his 12th season in a row as coach of the Canberra Raiders, and while we might jest at his unsackability, if that is even a word, spell check says no, he really has done well at Canberra with a team that would rarely rate in the top 4 of any pundits heading into a new season.
2025 will be no different, as the Raiders keep defying the critics, while Ricky defies the sack.
But they won’t win. Refer above.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA
A SIDE WITH CLINT GUTHERSON HAS NEVER WON A PREMIERSHIP
Bit of a low blow really, as that could apply to hundreds and hundreds of players, but also truthful. And we’ve run out of ideas.
READ MORE: THE GURGLER’S 2025 NRL SEASON SPECIALS
NRL 2025 BOLD PREDICTION FOR EACH CLUB
2025 NRL WOODEN SPOONER HEADLINES
I think your website won’t win the NRL either. Complete dross of the highest level. Almost as bad as that Clarkey on Facebook. Two words for you. P and U.