A new English Football League season awaits with the promise of new season excitement which will last for about a month until the reality sets in that most of our teams are not going to win much, maybe a Cup run with a big name draw on offer, maybe a late season charge to promotion or away from relegation. So before that enthusiasm is replaced by crippling reality, we make our 2024-25 English Football League Season Predictions.
One might ask how we come up with such a forecast, well we take a bunch of statistics from the past season like Points per Game, Goals Scored, Home form, Stats and even Market Value and change and roll them all up together, with some getting more bias than other.
Those details we can explain more later, but for now please accept our 2024-25 English Football League Season Predictions.
2024-25 English Football League Season Predictions
CHAMPIONSHIP
LEEDS TO PUT 23/24 CHOKE BEHIND THEM – BURNLEY ON THE BOUNCE
Leeds were often the best team in the league last season, but in an end to the season where no side in the top four looked like they wanted promotion Leeds ended up the odd one out. The worry for Leeds at the top is they have sold some of their best players last season, so our discount for having a worse squad may not be enough. The other top two side in our eyes is Burnley, who look like they are on another yo-yo Premier League journey. We did correctly pick the top two at this time last year in order.
The rest of the top six has a familiar look to it from last season, so maybe our stats are too lazy.
BAD SEASON FOR SHEFFIELD
We don’t have anything against Sheffields Wednesday or United, but that hasn’t stopped our Season Prediction model putting the two Sheffield teams at the bottom. Wednesday only just survived in the Championship last season, and United had one of the least successful Premier League campaigns in some time. So on form, both are possible. The other team to join them is Oxford, and being the side promoted via the playoffs, they are always up against it. Plymouth will survive as they will eventually sack Wayne Rooney and get the new manager bounce, Blackburn will struggle without their prolific striker who will find it hard to stay of EPL sides come a-knocking.
LEAGUE ONE
WREXHAM FAIRYTALE CONTINUES
Wrexham have taken the casual football observer by storm, doing for Welsh Football what Drive to Survive did for F1. Our metrics sees the Wrexham story continue upwards, landing in fifth place, and above Stockport who also came up from League Two last season. We say Wrexham win the playoffs.
Before that though, Birmingham and Bolton are selected to go straight up, which for Birmingham is a surprise given it has felt like they have spent the last decade just surviving in the Championship. Maybe a breath of fresh air helps. Bolton will go one better than playoff loss this season.
RELEGATION SEALED EARLY
Our 2024/25 prediction shows a bit of a gap between fourth and fifth last, meaning the relegation race won’t be as exciting in previous years despite the extra spot in the trapdoor. Three of that bottom four were the last teams not relegated from League One last season, while Rotherham are picked to suffer a double drop after finishing last by 18 points in last season’s Championship.
LEAGUE TWO
Two of the top three automatic promotion teams selected by us featured in the playoffs last season, with Notts County the team on the rise from 14th.
The two promoted sides from the National League last season survive according to us. With previous Football League club Chesterfield a solid 13th, while Bromley just survive, which isn’t bad in their first ever Football League season.
Down to the National League in a double-double drop from the teams relegated from League One last season is Carlisle and Cheltenham.
HOW IT WORKS
We take each stat, and assign a % from the Top figure for each stat. An overall average of those scores is calculated and a further calculation after ranking those scores is actioned and then the % is applied against last season’s total points.
Promoted teams have a reduction because they come from a lower league, opposite for relegated teams.
A further 5% increase is applied for teams who have done very well in the Transfer Window, while a 5% reduction applies to any team with a new manager, any teams who have lost a key player in the Transfer Window without replacement, and any club under potential financial stress or penalty.
Stats used: Points per Game (PPG) from 2023-24, PPG from Xmas, PPG from March, PPG from May, Goals Scored per Game All and at Home, Avoid Losing Away from Home, Shots, Shots on Target, Expected Goals, xG v Goals Scored, 5 Year league position average, Squad Value from Transfermarkt and Change in Squad Value.
