A new Premier League season awaits with the promise of new season excitement which will last for about a month until the reality sets in that most of our teams are not going to win much, and one team will probably win much. So before that enthusiasm is replaced by crippling reality, we make our 2024-25 Premier League Season Predictions.
One might ask how we come up with such a forecast, well we take a bunch of statistics from the past season like Points per Game, Goals Scored, Home form, Stats and even Market Value and change and roll them all up together, with some getting more bias than other.
Those details we can explain more later, but for now please accept our 2024-25 Premier League Season Predictions.
2024-25 Premier League Season Predictions
SO MAN CITY WIN AGAIN? HOW BORING….
Of course using a whole bunch of stats based on mostly last season and some from the last five season was going to mean that Manchester City would win the title, and with one more point than last season. But that says more about their competitors than them.
We have Arsenal second, but further away than last season. Which probably defies non-stat logic, but the number might think that until Arsenal have a world class striker like Man City do, they will always be at a disadvantage to Man City.
CHELSEA BACK IN THE TOP FOUR
Liverpool remain third but drop eight points from last season’s total. That could be down to having new manager teething. That gap will be even bigger if Mo Salah goes to Saudi Arabia.
Talking of spending ridiculous amounts of money, our stats have Chelsea back into the top four, which will help balance their books meaning they might only need to sell 5-10 players next season. With a squad of 84 players they should be able to sustain a season-long top four push.
EVERTON DOWN
Nearly every year, there’s one club who just keep avoiding relegation late in the season, who then eventually completely implode and go down. Whilst Everton may not implode, although they might as well, our stats have them dead last. But it is close.
Joining them is Wolves and Nottingham Forest, putting a dent in Premier League football for the midlands.
ALL PROMOTED TEAMS SURVIVE….APPARENTLY
In a trend much different from last season, our 2024-25 Premier League Season Predictions forecasts that all three of the recently promoted sides will survive.
And in one case, thrive.
No, we did not doctor this because of our love for Ipswich Town, it is the numbers who are to blame. But a 12th place finish would be a dream in any division from recent decades of following Ipswich Town, let alone the Premier League.
But it will be close according to our points predictions with the relegation battle looking to go well into May.
HOW IT WORKS
We take each stat, and assign a % from the Top figure for each stat. An overall average of those scores is calculated and a further calculation after ranking those scores is actioned and then the % is applied against last season’s total points.
Promoted teams have a reduction because they come from a lower league, opposite for relegated teams.
A further 5% increase is applied for teams who have done very well in the Transfer Window, while a 5% reduction applies to any team with a new manager, any teams who have lost a key player in the Transfer Window without replacement, and any club under potential financial stress or penalty.
Stats used: Points per Game (PPG) from 2023-24, PPG from Xmas, PPG from March, PPG from May, Goals Scored per Game All and at Home, Avoid Losing Away from Home, Shots, Shots on Target, Expected Goals, xG v Goals Scored, 5 Year league position average, Squad Value from Transfermarkt and Change in Squad Value.
