The biggest game of the NRL season is here with the Penrith Panthers and Brisbane Broncos facing off to be crowned the 2023 NRL Champions. And talking of champions, our 2023 NRL Grand Final Stats and Tips Summary is here to help to pick the winner or who to support.
Each week we offer up a quick preview glance for each match, a bunch of barely interesting stats, probably more than one could ever need or want. So read on for tips and stats to help you find a winner.
But our 2023 NRL Grand Final Stats and Tips Summary is our biggest effort ever. With more visuals, and more stats. There should be something for everyone.
2023 NRL Grand Final Tips
Here are our tips for the week ahead. How did we get to here? By going through all the visuals and stats below.
PENRITH PANTHERS v BRISBANE BRONCOS
Kick Off 7:30PM (Sydney) 6:30PM (Brisbane)
GURGLER TIP
PENRITH 18 BRISBANE 26
2023 NRL Grand Final Summary
The 2023 NRL Grand Final is set up perfectly really.
On one hand you have the league’s most dominant teams of the NRL era in Penrith Panthers facing a club that has produced a dominant team or two of their own in the past. The Broncos have come a long way since finishing dead last in 2020, and appear to be not suffering any hangover from throwing away a finals spot in 2022.
Penrith are so good and so bloody consistent week in and week out, it is almost impossible to beat them at their own game. They have the best halfback in the world, probably the best lock, and the best lots of things, plus a solid base of a side that have played and won together for the past three seasons.
Luckily the Broncos aren’t a team that will try and out-Penrith the Panthers. Their devil-may-care rugby league will bring errors, penalties, and occasionally abuse of a referee or someone nearby, but they can also explode into life at the drop of a hat. Or a pass to Reece Walsh.
If the Broncos can upset the apple cart of Penrith early with an early blitz of two tries, and the Panthers aren’t used to going behind often, keep the errors to a minimum, then the Broncos can win the 2023 NRL Title. If they go too far behind too early, we can’t see the relentless Panthers machine giving them anything, and a third premiership in a row awaits.
BARELY INTERESTING STATS
- Broncos have won all five clashes against Penrith at the Olympic Stadium.
- Penrith have won eight finals games in a row. Conceding 12 points or less on all of those occasions.
- Penrith have won all three Sunday fixtures this season. Brisbane have lost their only match on a Sunday.
- Penrith’s worst day for conceding points is Sunday. Their 2023 record for Sunday is 16.7 points compared to their overall 12.4 points.
- Brisbane have won their last two at the Olympic Stadium. Newcastle have won 9 of their last 11 at the Olympic Stadium.
- Broncos have conceded zero points in three of their four halves in the finals series compared to Penrith’s two.
- Penrith have won their last five games v Qld sides on a Sunday.
2023 NRL Grand Final Stats – H2H Stats
Looking for a cheat sheet for the weekend’s upcoming games?
Here’s as much information that we could cram into one size fits all visual.
The Broncos hold the overall record since 1998, but the Panthers have the recent record.
2023 NRL Grand Final Stats – Finals Stats from 1998
Here is each team’s final stats from 1998.
Penrith’s recent domination of NRL trophies has dragged up their overall finals record.
The opposite for Brisbane, whose recent record isn’t great, except for this season of course.
2023 NRL Grand Final Stats – Key Player Stats H2H
Here are the best of the player H2H for the big game this weekend.
We start off at the fullback position where the ever reliable and unsung Dylan Edwards is up against the far more flashy but risky Reece Walsh. Will those steely nerves, fantastic season stats and solidity of Dylan Edwards be the key to the 2023 NRL Grand Final, or will the game be torn apart by Walsh?
You an’t compare players in this game without looking at the the halfbacks, with Nathan Cleary being the benchmark in the competition for years, and Adam Reynolds being the super reliable halfback that he is. But Nathan Cleary’s numbers, despite missing a good chunk of the season shows he is top man.
A double up comparison of wingers really shows just how important the Panthers wingers are to their success. The Broncos have a little catching up to do in this area.
Plus a battle of two key forward group. One between Patrick Carrigan and Isiah Yeo shows just how equally good they are. The other shows Payne Haas’ standing as best prop.
2023 NRL Grand Final Stats – 2023 Season Stats Comparison
There wasn’t much between these teams in 2023, with defense being one stand out – the Panthers were awesome again. They conceded 12 points or less on 15 occasions in 2023.
But the Broncos offer so much in other areas of the field, their attack was OK with just eight points the difference over the 2023 season and finals. The Broncos also lead the two teams for Line Breaks.
One issue with all the Broncos flair is the error rate, as shown below. Reece Walsh not only tops the errors for these two teams, but of all players this season.
The below visuals hopefully tell a story on the 2023 NRL Season and how it could affect the 2023 NRL Grand Final. They show an advantage to the Panthers.
2023 NRL Grand Final Stats – 2023 Final Series Stats Comparison
Here are the stats from both teams just from the 2023 NRL Finals Series so far. And it is pretty close between the top two sides from their two games.
Penrith have scored two more and conceded two less, but the Broncos have conceded zero points in three of their four halves in the finals series compared to Penrith’s two.
The Broncos have a solid 200+ metres advantage for Post Contact metres, but the Panthers have them covered for overall metres. Mainly due to their powerful back three.
Would you believe there is one Line Break and one Tackle Break difference between the sides, with the winner switched between the two?
Broncos have made more errors, which is inline with the season, as is Reece Walsh topping the count.
Panthers have made more tackles, but have the better efficiency.
