It’s getting late in the season and every game is critical now, be it racing for the top four, a spot in the top eight, or trying to avoid another wooden spoon, and every on field decision is important. Which is why our Alternative NRL Round 23 Tips is here and based on if this week’s referee is biased against your team.
Alternative tips you ask? Well each week we offer up some alternative NRL tips based on a new theme, and occasionally it will have nothing to do with rugby league. Just the way we like it. This week it is about each team’s membership base, as teams will need this more than ever.
In addition to the tips are a whole bunch of barely interesting stats for the round of NRL ahead. Impress your neighbours (socially distanced of course), cheer up those in hotel quarantine, pre-record them into your phone and play them on loop as you go for your exercise with 5km of home, or read them out as a speech at any illegal engagement parties held by arrogant clowns during lockdowns.
However you choose to consume, enjoy your sample of Alternative NRL Round 23 Tips.
NRL Round 23 Tips Alternative – Gurgler v Referee Bias
METHOD TO THE MADNESS
All day!! All season!! You can hear the cries from the stands being directed at those with a whistle, well back when crowds were allowed everywhere. But is all that ref bias justified?
Well for this week we are actually if that is the case with the alternative NRL tips.
We have sourced this critical information from a fantastic source of NRL referee data, and it has the difference in winning % for each team for this week’s referees compared to overall.
For example for Penrith v Souths their referee is Grant Atkins. Penrith’s winning % in games refereed by Atkins is 16% better than their overall record. For Souths the winning record is nearly 13% worse than overall.
This means Penrith are a lot more likely to win with Grant Atkins as a referee.
And so we have followed this method for all games this weekend.
There are some very interesting “differences”. A few games have some big positive change v a large negative change.
Does that really mean a team is more likely to win. We say yes, but you can come back after the round to check on us.
NRL Round 23 Tips – Our Selections
We think we are much better tippers than the alternative and so here are our selections for the week. So far we’re winning.
STORM to beat Titans
SEA EAGLES to best Raiders
RABBITOHS to beat Panthers
TIGERS to beat Sharks
KNIGHTS to beat Bulldogs
COWBOYS to beat Eels
ROOSTERS to beat Dragons
WARRIORS to beat Broncos
Check out the Us v Them scoreboard at the end for 2021 results.
NRL Round 23 Tips – Barely Interesting Stats
There’s more to our preview than some alternative tips. We offer up a bunch of barely interesting stats for this weekend’s NRL action.
- In Melbourne’s incredible unbeaten run this season, their lowest points scored total has been 20 points (x3) , which is also the maximum any team has scored against them (Warriors in 42-20 win).
- Melbourne are on 29 straight wins in Queensland, with their last loss in the Sunshine State coming at the hands of Gold Coast in 2017.
- Melbourne’s only losses this season have come on a Thursday.
- Gold Coast have lost all three Thursday night games.
- The results from the last eight Canberra v Manly games follow a pattern (most recent game first) CAN MAN MAN MAN CAN MAN MAN MAN…
- Since their first win of the season against the Warriors, Manly’s results have also followed a pattern. They have won three in a row then lost four times now. E.g. (From first win – WWWL WWWL WWWL WWWL W. So they have the next W so another two wins coming.
- Manly have lost both of their Thursday games this season.
- Penrith have won four in a row v Souths but lost the last two Friday clashes.
- Penrith’s only losses in the last two seasons have come either on a Friday night or against Melbourne.
- Souths have won their last six Friday night games.
- Sharks have lost five Saturday games in a row.
- Bulldogs have won eight of the past 10 clashes against Newcastle.
- Bulldogs are on a 13 game losing streak in Queensland. Newcastle have now won three in a row in Queensland. Prior to those wins it was pretty lean though with one win in the preceding 18 games.
- Going back to 2016 the Knights have won just once in Queensland on a Saturday in nine games, with that solitary win coming against the Bulldogs.
- North Queensland have won eight games in a row against Parramatta on a Saturday with their last loss coming back in 2001.
- Parramatta have also lost seven in a row on a Saturday in Queensland.
- St George Illawarra are undefeated at this week’s venue – Toowoomba. They have won the only NRL game ever played there 54-8 v Gold Coast in 2018.
- Excluding games played in April for Anzac Day the Roosters have won ten in a row v Dragons. St George Illawarra haven’t won since their last premiership season in 2010.
- If the Warriors beat Brisbane on Sunday they will have the same amount of victories in Queensland this season.
2021 Us v Them NRL Tipping Scoreboard
US – 70% – 118/168
THEM – 51% – 87/168
ALTERNATIVE TIPS
FIRST ROUND FORM – 4/8
FULLBACKS – 5/8
INJURIES @ RD 3 – 6/8
EASTER – 4/8
ZERO POINTS – 5/8
MASCOTS – 4/8
PENALTIES – 4/8
POST CONTACT METRES – 5/8
BEST H2H – 3/8
SUNCORP STADIUM RECORD – 6/8
DISCIPLINE – 4/8
WINTER – 3/8
SCRABBLE – 1/4
POST ORIGIN FORM – 4/8
STATE OF ORIGIN REPS – 3/8
QLD ORIGIN REPS – 1/8
LIKELIHOOD TO BREAK COVID – 2/4
QUEENSLAND – 5/8
NEUTRAL GROUNDS – 6/8
FAMOUS FANS – 3/8
ZERO CROWD – 4/8
MEMBERSHIP GROWTH – 5/8
