There’s more to football in England than the Premier League – the other 72 teams below them filling up three divisions – and with the first weekend looming here are our 2021-22 EFL Football League Season Predictions and Preview.
The beauty of the Championship, League One and League Two is that they are usually totally unpredictable, with recent seasons seeing some real surprises earning promotions, and some big clubs falling backwards. Except for last season’s promoted teams to the Premier League. And probably this season given the advantage of parachute money.
Our 2021-22 EFL Football League Season Predictions are based on a number of stats from the 20-21 season, plus factor in some measurable improvements for the 21-22 season ahead thanks to the Transfermarkt website.
In addition to our predictions for the end of season ladder, we’ll offer up a half-arsed Barely Interesting Preview on each of the divisions. For those with enough interest but not enough time.
2021-22 EFL Football League Season Predictions and Preview – Championship
DATA PREDICTION TABLE REFLECTION
First up it is over to our season predictions for the Championship, and there is an unexpected name on top, which occasionally happens. And that has happened with our stats based prediction with QPR topping the table, which would be a mild surprise if it did happen in real life. They were only bettered by promoted sides Norwich and Watford if the table started on January 1. Charlie Austin is a proven goal scorer at this level and Andre Dozzell will become another Ipswich Town player whose career kicks on after leaving the Suffolk club. Like everyone else deemed not good enough for Ipswich.
Bournemouth are the stats machine second pick to go up, and you can see that happening given they still have some quality in their squad. And Scott Parker moving from Fulham to the south coast must be for a very good reason or a shitload of cash. Holding onto Danjuma and Brooks is key.
The rest of the top six is a mix of of last year’s surprise Barnsley, tried and true Cardiff, Blackburn and the only relegated side in Sheffield United. Who we discuss later how they look the worst bet.
The bottom three feature Derby County aka Wayne Rooney’s Derby County. That looks like it will go tits up pretty early and relegation looks a possibility. Huddersfield have been punching above their weight for a while, but this may be the season where they drop.
The promoted teams all survive according to our data predictions table. Which is always nice.
RELEGATED TEAMS
The three Premier League teams have a bigger advantage than usual with a sack full of TV money parachuting them down to the second tier after a season where the lower level clubs have so such riches from their TV rights and no crowds thanks to Covid. How there weren’t more clubs going bust because of Covid is amazing but great.
Sheffield United were so poor during most of last season it is hard to see them bouncing straight back. Hiring Slaviša Jokanović is a good move given his previous promotions. They have retained most of the squad that took them up, but we wonder if that’s a good thing given their lack of results last season.
West Brom broke the no-relegation reign of Big Sam but did turn it on at times last last season. Their 5-2 thrashing of Chelsea a real highlight. As long as they keep Matheus Pereira then they will be a big chance but rumours are they won’t. But the rest of their squad looks real Championship quality and should be top six minimum. Although our stats predictor doesn’t think so.
Then there’s Fulham who continue their yo-yo-ing between the two divisions. Can Mitrovic provide another promotion bag o goals? They have the perennially rated Harry Wilson. And former Everton and Watford manager Marco Silva.
All three should be top six with the bag O cash they bring down, but all were terrible at times in the Premier League last season so who knows.
PROMOTED TEAMS
Blackpool are a welcome addition to the Championship, after freeing themselves from the Oyston regime it has been a much better place for fans and nice to win something other than worst run club. They reached as low as the fourth division within the last few seasons so have done well.
Peterborough are run by the entertaining Darragh MacAnthony and managed by Darren Ferguson and usually feature in a lot of high scoring games, so their return to the second tier should bring some fun. Jonson Clarke-Harris scored 31 goals in 45 games last season, so hopefully that can translate into Championship goals.
The other team joining the Championship is Hull City who have swung between Premier League and League One for the last decade. A decent effort from Grant McCann who was in charge when Hull went down from the Championship two seasons ago, but rebounded at the first time of asking as Champions of the third tier.
OTHER INTERESTING TEAMS
Middlesbrough must be considered due to Neil Warnock’s outstanding record of promotion. Nottingham Forest also have a decent manager and proven Championship winner and could threaten the top six.
A win for Coventry City as they will play their games out of Coventry this season. What time to do it too as fans are allowed back.
PLAYERS TO WATCH / AHH, THAT’S WHERE THEY ARE
Harry Wilson has moved for a decent price tag to Fulham, and is certainly one to watch. Especically when standing over a free kick.
Cameron Jerome has been a great goal scorer in the past in the Championship, and he is leading Luton Town’s charge this season.
There’ll probably be a few Bournemouth TV games, so Jefferson Lerma is always one to watch, as he is usually just seconds away from brilliance or a brain snapping red card.
Another one from the “not good enough for Ipswich Town file” is Kieffer Moore at Cardiff. Coincidentally managed by former “not good enough manager” Mick McCarthy. Moore scored in the Euro tournament so should have plenty to offer Cardiff for what we think will be a top six finish.
It’s hard to keep up with Robert Snodgrass but he is at West Brom this season, but players like Grady Diangana and Callum Robinson who didn’t quite make the step up to the Premier League will probably shine in the second tier this season.
As mentioned previously, we have no doubt Andre Dozzell will be a hit at QPR and drive them to a title.
MANAGER-GO-ROUND
Manager changes since end of last season: 6
Notables: Barnsley’s reward for surprising everyone with their top six finish last season is their manager Valérien Ismaël leaving for recently relegated West Brom. Talking of relegated, Fulham’s Scott Parker has shifted from Fulham to Bournemouth. Former high flying EPL manager Marco Silva has also dropped down a division by agreeing to take over at Fulham. Completng the Fulham circle former promotion winning manager Slaviša Jokanović takes over at former promotion winning Sheffield United. Steve Cooper also left Swansea City which means all three losing team from last season’s playoffs have changed their manager since.
In the category of that’s where they are for managers former Leicester EPL title mastermind Nigel Pearson is at Bristol City, Mr nice guy Chris Hughton is at Nottingham Forest and old hands with many promotions between them Neil Warnock is at Middlesbrough and Mick McCarthy is still at Cardiff.
Longest Serving Managers: Tony Mowbray @ Blackburn (4y 164d) beating his next rival by a few days Mark Robbins @ Coventry (4y 152d).
Most in Trouble Manager: Wayne Rooney – not just for Derby’s poor end to the season where they were almost relegated, but injuring your own player in a training tackle is not a good look. To be honest we’re still bitter they stayed up last season at the expense of Wycombe.
ODDS
OUR FINAL SELECTIONS
QPR Promoted
Derby Relegated
Cardiff Top Six
2021-22 EFL Football League Season Predictions and Preview – League One
DATA PREDICTION TABLE REFLECTION
Well as an Ipswich Town fan and AFC Wimbledon supporter we are hoping that our stats machine that came up with this season’s prediction is hopelessly wrong.
The data suggests that Oxford United will take the title, and they haven’t been far from that the last two season with top six finishes. Unfortunately they have lost out in the playoffs both seasons. Maybe this is the year.
Milton Keynes is a surprise – mid table finish last season, but did improve later in the season. There’s no real big names in the squad, so we’ll have to trust the data. Although we still think they should drop the Dons part of their name.
Netflix stars Sunderland feature in the predictions table top six, and our computer wouldn’t possibly work out the % of them failing at the playoff stage again.
Relegated Wycombe may be a surprise for the top four, but the Chairboys did well at the end of last season and have The Beast. What more could you want.
With League One being as unpredictable as any other league in Europe that is shown in the varied team in and around the top six – Lincoln, Gillingham, Crewe and Burton Albion.
The stats computer doesn’t trust Ipswich Town. We don’t blame them.
RELEGATED TEAMS
Sheffield Wednesday are coming down in not a great shape on or off the field, so may be afforded the tag of sleeping giant for this season, but they are just another giant in a division that has become of graveyard of ambitious former Championship clubs.
Rotherham is a bit of a yo-yo club between the two divisions, and will push again for promotion.
Wycombe may have lost a vital player in Onyedinma, but still have The Beast – aka Adebayo Akinfenwa. And that’s enough for us to stay on board with Wycombe.
PROMOTED TEAMS
Morecambe are the biggest feel good story – promoted to the third division for the first time ever. Although the manager quit just days afterwards. They’ll all say Morecambe can’t stay up after being favourites to be relegated from the fourth division for so many seasons, but they said that about Accrington Stanley too who are still in League One.
Bolton Wanderers up from the fourth division? Just goes to show how bad things can get for ex Premier League clubs when it goes wrong off the pitch. Less than ten seasons ago Bolton were in the top flight.
Cambridge are back in the third tier for the first time in 20 years, and although they miss out on their great rivalry with Peterborough who got promoted there’s always a token Oxford-Cambridge match.
Cheltenham are more famous for their races than football team, but did win the League Two title last season.
OTHER INTERESTING TEAMS
Ipswich Town have new US owners, a reasonably new manager, loads of new players after a massive off season clear out, and shirts sponsored by fan Ed Sheeran. There’s a lots of moving parts but Ipswich fans, including us, are moving it’s moving in an upward direction after recent stagnation and decline.
Sunderland remain the biggest team in the league and remain in the third tier. Is this the year they break out of League One having been outdone by much smaller clubs in recent seasons? It took Sheffield United years to escape League One, and look how that ended.
AFC Wimbledon get to enjoy their first full season back in Wimbledon for decades and can now celebrate with fans. Hopefully they can lift the Dons away from the relegation zone.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Adebayo Akinfenwa – so many players, but only one for us. Told he was not good enough for the the third tier five years ago, here he is at 39 and coming back from the second division.
MANAGER-GO-ROUND
Manager changes since end of last season: 3
Notables: Milton Keynes manager Russell Martin quit just this week within a week of the new season starting to take the Swansea Championship job. You’d also have to wonder why Morecambe manager Derek Adams quit within a week of securing Morecambe’s first ever promotion to the third tier.
Longest Serving Managers: Gareth Ainsworth @ Wycombe (8y 316d)
Most in Trouble Manager: Lee Johnson – any manager at Sunderland is always in trouble.
ODDS
OUR FINAL SELECTIONS
These are our own choices after considering our prediction ladder and everything else.
Ipswich Promoted
Wigan Top Six
Morecambe to not be relegated
Shrewsbury to be relegated.
2021-22 EFL Football League Season Predictions and Preview – League Two
TABLE REFLECTION
Mansfield top our data prediction ladder, and they finished the season with the second best form over six games.
Tranmere were the top sides for points after January 1 out of the teams that weren’t promoted, so that is a nice lead up to the new season.
Man Utd linked Salford make up the top three according to the stats. Probably afraid to tip against them.
Sutton United feature in fourth in our data prediction ladder.
Further down the stats computer doesn’t like two very well established football league sides in Scunthorpe and Walsall. They finished 22nd and 19th respectively last season, so would only need a slight drop off to slide further down.
RELEGATED TEAMS
Bristol Rovers cam last in League One last season and have Joey Barton in charge. He was in the news recently denying charges of assaulting his wife.
Swindon Town are already onto their second manager of the season, so one wonders what kind of preparation that is for a new season in a new division.
Rochdale have punched above their weight in the third tier for a while but were finally relegated at the end of last season, missing out by just a point on surviving another season.
Northampton continue their yo-yo between tiers three and four having swapped league seven times since 2000.
None of the relegated teams are screaming out for an instant return to League One, opening up some spaces for some new teams to taste the third tier.
PROMOTED TEAMS
Sutton United were recently noted for a great FA Cup run and even more notorious during that run was the Goalkeeping coach/reserve who ate a pie on the bench in a betting sting against the company who set the market.
They also upset the reigning FA Cup holders as a Non League team in the late 80’s. This is their first time in the football league.
The other promoted team is the favourite team of Soccer Saturday host Jeff Stelling – Hartlepool. So get more exposure than most lower league teams. They are also known as the Monkey Hangers, which is a funny story by itself.
MANAGER-GO-ROUND
Manager changes since end of last season: 8 – one third of the league.
Notables: Well probably Swindon has the most notable manager change considering that they have changed managers twice in the off season after former Colchester John McGreal left after a month and no games played.
Longest Serving Managers: Simon Weaver @ Harrogate (12y 77d) current top four tier record holder.
Most in Trouble Manager: Joey Barton – legal troubles pending.
ODDS
OUR FINAL SELECTIONS
These are our own choices after considering our prediction ladder and everything else.
Carlisle to be promoted
Sutton Utd to survive
Colchester top seven
Scunthorpe relegated
