Lucky number seven we say, this is the week where our alternative selections break through for 100%, so we won’t delay our Alternative NRL Round 7 Tips.
With your weekly NRL tipping, instead of allowing the competition admin to give you the away teams for when you don’t care about who you tip, why not take on board our weekly Alternative NRL Tipping method instead.
Each week we have a new theme, and occasionally it will have nothing to do with rugby league. Just the way we like it. This week is all about each team’s penalty count.
In addition to that is a whole bunch of barely interesting stats for the round of NRL ahead. Impress your neighbours and fellow passengers by stealing them and sharing.
Good luck with your Alternative NRL Round 7 Tips if you choose to use them.
FOR STATS AND STUFF ON LAST WEEK – READ OUR ROUND 6 NRL STATS REVIEW
NRL Round 7 Tips Alternative – Gurgler v Penalty Count
So here are this week’s alternative tips. The method to how it works is below.
METHOD TO THE MADNESS
We thought that penalties were a good source of tipping, thinking that losing the penalty count usually means a team loses the game.
Not quite so in 2021 anyway. It is pretty even with the winning and losing team topping the penalty count for each match, with a few games tied with the most penalties. There’s more stats below if one is interested.
Regardless of whether it is a great tipping stat or not we have taken the penalty count (including ruck infringements aka Set Restarts) for each team this week and whoever has the lower penalty count gets the tip.
Simples.
NRL Round 7 Tips – Our Selections
We say stuff the alternative tips and supply our own to see if we can beat the absurd. So far we’re winning.
PANTHERS to beat Knights
RABBITOHS to beat Titans
EELS to beat Broncos
BULLDOGS to beat Sharks
RAIDERS to beat Cowboys
SEA EAGLES to beat Tigers
ROOSTERS to beat Dragons
STORM to beat Warriors
NRL Tipping Scoreboard
US – 71% – 34/48
ALTERNATIVE TIPS
THEM – 58% – 28/48
FIRST ROUND FORM – 4/8
FULLBACKS – 5/8
INJURIES @ RD 3 – 6/8
EASTER – 4/8
ZERO POINTS – 5/8
MASCOTS – 4/8
NRL Round 7 Tips – Barely Interesting Stats
- Penrith have won eight straight Thursday night games going back to May 2019. They are conceding at just over 9 points a game with a max of 12 points against. They have also won six straight Thursday night home games with their only loss v Bulldogs back in 2016.
- For the record Penrith best day for points scored and fewest points conceded is Saturday.
- Souths have won nine of the last games v Qld opposition since Wayne Bennett took over. In the same period, Gold Coast have won just two of their 11 homes games v Sydney teams.
- Broncos have lost 11 straight away games and eight in a row away to Sydney teams and have also lost away to Parra in their last four by 36-150.
- Cronulla have won just one of their last seven v Sydney teams on a Saturday. The Bulldogs last won an away match on a Saturday in August 2019. They also have not beaten the Sharks away since 2013.
- North Queensland have lost three in a row at home to Canberra. Their home games are following a pattern v teams outside of NSW (most recent result first LLWLLWLLWLLLWLLW. So a win is due then? Canberra have won ten of their last 11 games away to sides not from NSW.
- Wests Tigers have lost six in a row at home. And nine of their last ten home games v Sydney teams. Tigers are also 2/8 when using Bankwest as a home ground.
- Refer to one of the visual below for the Roosters v Dragons results by day for Anzac Day.
- Storm have won nine in a row v New Zealand. They also haven’t lost a Sunday home game since August 2018 – six wins in a row on Sunday.
NRL Round 7 Tips – Barely Interesting Graphs
PENALTY STATS
Part one below shows the combined penalties against each side plus the ruck infringements.
Bulldogs being on top for penalties probably doesn’t surprise given their ladder position but two high flyers in Canberra and Roosters.
Down the other end it’s no surprise that the Panthers have the fewest penalties, because they are so arrogant. The former home of arrogance Brisbane Broncos are fourth best.
For each game of each round we have worked out which team (winner of match or loser of match) conceded the most penalties.
As you can see below it is 3-3 for round where the winner / loser gave away the most penalties.
So there really shouldn’t be too much moaning about a ref, as it is 50-50 this season whether it matters or not.
PENRITH SCORING FOR AND AGAINST SINCE 2020
With the Panthers almost unbeaten across 2020 and 2021 it’s pointless doing a comparison for winning record. So less pointless is looking at the points scored and conceded in the Panthers super run.
Looks like it is best to get the Panthers on a Sunday.
ANZAC DAY RECORDS
Here are the records for both if the now traditional Roosters v Dragons and Storm v Warriors.
