If you’re struggling to keep up with which game week it is, or which competition is on, who is injured, and if Liverpool will ever win again. Same for us. But that will never stop our Premier League Predictions Week 27 and Preview.
And as if the frequency of games wasn’t enough, this edition features a lazy 16 games.
Our preview ambles through the available Premier League fixtures, with a bunch of visuals, stats and figures for some barely interesting reading. And something new this week.
So many games, it’s going to feel like unlimited football or football overdose. Either way is fine by us.
This week the big game is in Manchester between two Manchester sides, but there’s way more to play for everywhere else.
For now, come for the predictions and stay for the Premier League Predictions Week 27.
New Stat – Premier League Predictions Week 27- Expected Goals v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
A mouthful you say? Of course, stats aren’t meant to be easy.
What we have done is get the running difference between the expected goals and goals scored, and then compared that to the running points per game for each team.
One trend that looks reasonably clear, is the a team’s form looks to consistently slide once the xG v Goals scored has hit a negative peak, and vice versa for a surge in form and a positive xG v Goals.
So if it looks like a peak has been reached in the xG v Goals scored, then form is about to get better or worse depending on what side of the xG v Goals line the team is.
We have this measure in the previews below.
Premier League Predictions Week 27 – Match by Match
SATURDAY 12:30PM UK
BURNLEY v ARSENAL
MATCH STATS
Why Burnley can win
Only Arsenal, Wolves, Chelsea and Man City have conceded fewer goals at home. Only the bottom three have scored fewer at home.
Burnley are going for a rare double over Arsenal after the win earlier in the season.
Why Arsenal can win.
Arsenal have won the last seven straight games v Burnley on a Saturday.
Burnley last beat Arsenal in March in 1960.
Barely Interesting Stat:
These teams have only met once in the Premier League in March – Arsenal won 3-1.
These teams have only met once in the Premier League at Burnley on a Saturday – Arsenal won 1-0.
Three times this season when Arsenal have won immediately after a loss, they have gone on to lose the next match in the Premier League. Only once have they avoided the LWL. For the record their last two results are LW…..
We Say….
Burnley 1 Arsenal 0
SATURDAY 3:00PM UK
SHEFFIELD UTD v SOUTHAMPTON
MATCH STATS
Why Sheffield Utd can win
Sheffield Utd just won a game and have now cleared the worst tally of points in the Premier League set by Derby just over a decade ago.
Southampton’s nine game winless streak is the worst in the four tiers of English football. It is only the third worst in Europe’s top five divisions.
Southampton have won won once since mid December. Shffeild Utd have won four games in that time.
Why Southampton can win.
Southampton have won the last three in a row v Sheffield Utd. And have outscored Sheffield Utd by a total of 7-1.
All of Sheffield Utd’s wins have come on a Tuesday or Wednesday. They have taken two points on a Saturday in ten games.
Barely Interesting Stat:
The away side has only scored in one game of the five played in March between these sides. That was a 4-4 draw in 1953.
We Say….
Sheffield Utd 0 Southampton 1
SATURDAY 5:30PM UK
ASTON VILLA v WOLVES
MATCH STATS
Why Aston Villa can win
Wolves have won just one of five matches v other midlands team (L3 D1)
Aston Villa are just behind Spurs for most points per game on a Saturday – but just in front of Man City.
Why Wolves can win.
Aston are equal worst with five other teams for goals scored in the last six games.
The away side has won the last two games 1-0.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Wolves have scored exactly one goal in five of their last six visits to Aston Villa – the record is W2 D2 L2)
The away side has won the last two games 1-0.
We Say….
Aston Villa 2 Wolves 0
SATURDAY 8:00PM UK
BRIGHTON v LEICESTER
MATCH STATS
Why Brighton can win
Brighton are up to fifth for expected points, again one place ahead of Leicester.
Leicester looks to be suffering from injuries and form loss at exactly as the same time as last season.
Why Leicester can win.
These teams have only met once in March, and Leicester won that game in 2018.
Leicester are unbeaten in eight matches v Brighton.
Leicester are unbeaten in eight matches v BrightonBarely Interesting Stat:
Brighton are seventh for xG, one place ahead of Leicester. Brighton have scored 15 fewer goals than their xG says they should. Leicester are six goals better.
Only Liverpool and Everton have won more matches against top six than Brighton’s two.
We Say….
Brighton 1 Leicester 1
SUNDAY 12:00PM UK
WEST BROM v NEWCASTLE
MATCH STATS
Why West Brom can win
West Brom are unbeaten in four matches at home to bottom six sides. They’ve taken two points and conceded 30 goals in the other nine home matches against higher opposition.
Newcastle have lost seven of their last eight away games.
West Brom are also terrible at home needing some refereeing luck and poor penalty taking to win last time.
Why Newcastle can win.
Newcastle have won the last three games on a Sunday between these sides.
Barely Interesting Stat:
There have been three goals or more scored in six of the seven Sunday fixtures between these sides.
West Brom haven’t beaten Newcastle in March since 1933.
We Say….
West Brom 1 Newcastle 0
SUNDAY 2:00PM UK
LIVERPOOL v FULHAM
MATCH STATS
Why Liverpool can win
Liverpool are unbeaten in seven games v Fulham, the last start draw ended a run of six straight wins.
Liverpool have never lost to Fulham on a Sunday (W4 D2)
Why Fulham can win.
Liverpool have now lost five in a row at home and are winless in seven games at home.
Liverpool are now last for last six home form and have scored just one goal – the lowest return. And the second worst goals conceded.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Before Chelsea’s win in midweek, Liverpool were the only team that had yet to lose to a side from London
Liverpool have won as many games (two) against the bottom six as Fulham. And Burnley and Sheffield Utd. Only Crystal Palace and Everton have conceded more goals to the bottom six sides.
We Say….
Liverpool 0 Fulham 0
SATURDAY 4:30PM UK
MAN CITY v MAN UTD
MATCH STATS
Why Man City can win
Because Man City are on the way way to breaking winning streak record/s.
Man Utd have yet to beat a big six club and have scored just one goal in seven games.
Man Utd have also only won 1/6 v top six sides.
Why Man Utd can win.
Man Utd are actually unbeaten in the last three v Man City (D1 W2)
Man Utd have only lost one of the last six v Man City at Man City. (W4 D1)
Barely Interesting Stat:
Man City are winless and scoreless in the last two meetings between these sides in March.
We Say….
Man City 2 Man Utd 0
SUNDAY 7:15PM UK
SPURS v CRYSTAL PALACE
MATCH STATS
Why Spurs can win
Spurs have lost just one of their last ten matches v Crystal Palace
Spurs have won their past two home games.
Why Crystal Palace can win.
Crystal Palace are unbeaten in the last three Sunday games v Spurs (W1 D2)
Barely Interesting Stat:
The last four games between Spurs and Palace on a Sunday follow a pattern. Most recent game first – Spurs 1-0 – Palace 1-0 – Spurs 1-0 – Palace 1-0
Spurs are 2/8 v London sides – Crystal Palace are 1/7.
We Say….
Spurs 2 Crystal Palace 0
MONDAY 6:00PM UK
CHELSEA v EVERTON
MATCH STATS
Why Chelsea can win
Everton haven’t beaten Chelsea at Chelsea since 1994, 32 games ago.
Everton have not beaten Chelsea in three attempt on a Monday.
Chelsea are gunning for consecutive wins v teams from Liverpool.
Why Everton can win.
Only Man City and Liverpool have won more games v London clubs.
Everton have ;lost just one of their last six v Chelsea.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Chelsea are yet to beat a top six side this season, Everton have lost just once in eight.
We Say….
Chelsea 2 Everton 0
MONDAY 8:00PM UK
WEST HAM v LEEDS
MATCH STATS
Why West Ham can win
Leeds have lost all four away trips to London this season.
West Ham (W3 D2) are unbeaten at home to mid six teams.
Why Leeds can win.
Leeds have lost only once in 13 matches at West Ham since 1992.
We Say….
West Ham 3 Leeds 1
