If you’re struggling to keep up with which game week it is, or which competition is on, who is injured, and if Liverpool will ever win again. Same for us. But that will never stop our Premier League Predictions Week 26 and Preview.
And as if the frequency of games wasn’t enough, this edition features a lazy 16 games.
Our preview ambles through the available Premier League fixtures, with a bunch of visuals, stats and figures for some barely interesting reading. And something new this week.
So many games, it’s going to feel like unlimited football or football overdose. Either way is fine by us.
This week the big game is everyone v everyone else as the games will likely become a blur of football.
For now, come for the predictions and stay for the Premier League Predictions Week 25.
Premier League Predictions Week 26- Season Results Summary
Tables are all good and well, but what about a much more colourful presentation of the results for the 20-21 Premier League season so far, with some opposition stats.
New Stat – Premier League Predictions Week 26- Expected Goals v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
A mouthful you say? Of course, stats aren’t meant to be easy.
What we have done is get the running difference between the expected goals and goals scored, and then compared that to the running points per game for each team.
One trend that looks reasonably clear, is the a team’s form looks to consistently slide once the xG v Goals scored has hit a negative peak, and vice versa for a surge in form and a positive xG v Goals.
So if it looks like a peak has been reached in the xG v Goals scored, then form is about to get better or worse depending on what side of the xG v Goals line the team is.
We have this measure in the previews below.
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
SATURDAY 12:30PM UK
MAN CITY v WEST HAM
MATCH STATS
Why Man City can win
They haven’t lost a game since Nov 21 v Spurs.
Man City have won 13 Premier League games in a row and are unbeaten in 17 games.
West Ham are D1 L3 away to Big Six teams.
Why West Ham can win.
West Ham are having their best season since, well, a long time. And with a value of squad the quarter of Man City according to Transfermarkt.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Man City are yet to concede a goal at home to a London side in four matches.
West Ham haven’t won v Man City since 2015 – 12 matches ago. Man City have scored four or more goals five times in that run.
We Say….
Man City 1 West Ham 0
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
SATURDAY 3:00PM UK
WEST BROM v BRIGHTON
MATCH STATS
Why West Brom can win
West Brom (W1 D2 L4) have actually beaten a bottom six side. Brighton (D6) haven’t.
West Brom are unbeaten in ten league matches at home to Brighton. Brighton last won there in 1977.
Why Brighton can win.
Brighton are seventh for points earned since January 1. Their 13 points is one point less than West Brom’s season tally.
Brighton are seventh for xG too. Double the xG of West Brom.
Barely Interesting Stat:
No team has conceded more goals per game at home this season than West Brom of all the four tiers of English football and the top five European leagues. At least they have won a game – Torino and Dijon have not yet done so this season.
Brighton have drawn every game where they have faced a bottom six opponent.
We Say….
West Brom 1 Brighton 1
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
SATURDAY 5:30PM UK
LEEDS v ASTON VILLA
MATCH STATS
Why Leeds can win
It’s been seven games and over 20 years since Aston Villa have won at Leeds.
Why Aston Villa can win.
Aston Villa hold the upper hand for February games.
Aston Villa are 5/5 for games v middle eight teams. Leeds are W4 D3 L2.
Leeds have lost both games at home to midlands teams this season.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Leeds have won just one of eight games played in February. Aston Villa have won six times.
We Say….
Leeds 3 Aston Villa 1
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
SATURDAY 8:00PM UK
NEWCASTLE v WOLVES
MATCH STATS
Why Newcastle can win
Wolves haven’t beaten Newcastle in February since 1959
Why Wolves can win.
Wolves (W2 D1) are undefeated to north east teams.
They are also undefeated away to Newcastle in their last three trips.
Barely Interesting Stat:
The last four meetings between these sides has ended 1-1.
We Say….
Newcastle 0 Wolves 0
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
SUNDAY 12:00PM UK
LEICESTER v ARSENAL
MATCH STATS
Why Leicester can win
Leicester are unbeaten in their last four v Arsenal W3 D1. And four in a row at home to Arsenal. And won two in a row on a Sunday.
Jamie Vardy has scored 11 goals in 10 games v Arsenal.
Why Arsenal can win.
Leicester’s record at home to clubs from London is L2 W1. Although Arsenal’s away record to midlands based teams is also L2 W1.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Leicester haven’t beaten Arsenal in February since 1967
We Say….
Leicester 3 Arsenal 0
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
SUNDAY 12:00PM UK
CRYSTAL PALACE v FULHAM
MATCH STATS
Why Crystal Palace can win
Crystal Palace have a great record against the bottom six sides this season. W8 D2 L1.
Why Fulham can win.
Fulham are unbeaten in their last six away games.
Crystal Palace (D1 L1) are yet to beat a London side at home. Although Fulham have the exact some record away to London clubs.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Only Spurs and Chelsea have scored more goals v the bottom six sides this season. 76% of the goals they have scored this season have come against bottom six sides. Which currently makes up less than half of their fixtures this season.
We Say….
Crystal Palace 0 Fulham 2
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
SUNDAY 2:00PM UK
SPURS v BURNLEY
MATCH STATS
Why Spurs can win
Spurs are unbeaten at home to bottom six sides (W3 D1)
Mourinho (W6 D4) has never lost to Sean Dyche. But he hadn’t lost to David Moyes in 16 matches before last weekend.
Why Burnley can win.
Burnley have won 2/4 away to London clubs.
Burnley are 14th for last six form having lost two games, while Spurs are 18th for form and have lost 5/6.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Burnley haven’t beaten Spurs in London since 1983 – ten games ago.
Burnley have won the last three league games between these sides in 2019, 1953 and 1951.
We Say….
Spurs 2 Burnley 0
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
SUNDAY 4:30PM UK
CHELSEA v MAN UTD
MATCH STATS
Why Chelsea can win
Chelsea are currently second for last six form.
Chelsea are unbeaten in the last four games at home v Man Utd on a Sunday.
Why Man Utd can win.
Man Utd have won the last three matches at Chelsea.
Man Utd have not lost away from home this season.
Man UTd (W2 D1) are unbeaten away in London this season.
Chelsea (D1 L2) are yet to beat a big six team at home.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Chelsea have not beaten Man Utd in the League in February since the Premier League started.
Three teams (Man City, Man Utd and Leicester all top the most goals scored away this season. Man Utd have done it with one less game.
We Say….
Chelsea 0 Man Utd 0
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
SUNDAY 7:15PM UK
SHEFFIELD UTD v LIVERPOOL
MATCH STATS
Why Sheff Utd can win
Sheffield Utd have won more games than Liverpool since January 1.
Liverpool have managed just two draws v bottom six sides away this season.
Liverpool are 0/2 (L2) away to midlands sides.
Why Liverpool can win.
Sheffield Utd have lost 13/14 of matches against the top six. And 8/9 v the big six.
Liverpool haven’t lost to Sheffield Utd in the league since 1994.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Sheffield Utd have nine points since January 1 to Liverpool’s seven. They have also conceded the same number of goals. Liverpool’s star studded attack has only mustered one more goal than the Blades too.
Liverpool have won just two of the last 12 games at Sheffield Utd.
We Say….
Sheffield Utd 0 Liverpool 1
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
MONDAY 8:00PM UK
EVERTON v SOUTHAMPTON
MATCH STATS
Why Everton can win
Everton (W1 D1) are unbeaten on a Monday v Southampton.
Southampton haven’t won at Everton since 1997. The record for Everton is W10 D6 in that run.
Southampton have lost their last four away games.
Why Southampton can win.
Everton haven’t been great at home lately – lost three straight and no wins in five games. Everton are in the bottom six for home form this season.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Southampton have won just once in nine games between these sides in February.
Four of the last six games between these sides at Everton has ended 1-1.
Leeds have conceded as many away goals this season as Southampton.
We Say….
Everton 2 Southampton 0
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
TUESDAY 8:00PM UK
MAN CITY v WOLVES
MATCH STATS
Why Man City can win
Refer above match preview. Man City have won way too many games in a row.
Man City are yet to concede a goal v middle eight sides at home in their four wins.
Wolves have lost all three games away to the top six.
Why Wolves can win.
Man City’s record at home to midland team is their poorest geographic battle. Beaten by Leicester and drew with West Brom in four games.
Wolves won the last fixture at Man City last season.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Wolves haven’t won either Tuesday clash with Man City or scored a goal.
Man City have scored more goals since January 1 than seven clubs have all season.
We Say….
Man City 3 Wolves 0
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
WEDNESDAY 6:00PM UK
SHEFFIELD UTD v ASTON VILLA
MATCH STATS
Why Sheff Utd can win
Sheffield Utd (6) have scored more points at home in the last six than Aston Villa have away (5).
Sheffield Utd have won the last two home games v Aston Villa.
Why Aston Villa can win.
Aston Villa have lost just one of the last seven midweek clashes v Sheffield Utd.
Aston Villa have won 4/5 of clashes v midlands teams. Sheffield Utd have won 1/5 against fellow midlands sides.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Aston Villa essentially stayed up last season because the video technology and referee failed to see a goal scored by Sheffield Utd in the first game post lockdown last season. The 0-0 draw gave Villa a point, which they beat 18th Bournemouth by one point with a worse goal difference.
We Say….
Sheffield Utd 1 Aston Villa 0
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
WEDNESDAY 6:00PM UK
BURNLEY v LEICESTER
MATCH STATS
Why Burnley can win
Burnley (W3 D3 L1) have lost just once to midlands sides this season.
Burnley have lost all three games at home to top six sides and haven’t scored.
Why Leicester can win.
Leicester (W4 D1) are unbeaten away to bottom six sides.
Barely Interesting Stat:
The last three matches played at Burnley between these teams has ended 2-1 to someone. Of course it is Burnley with two wins and Leicester with one.
We Say….
Burnley 0 Leicester 3
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
WEDNESDAY 8:15PM UK
CRYSTAL PALACE v MANCHESTER UTD
MATCH STATS
Why Crystal Palace can win
They beat Man Utd earlier in the season.
Why Man Utd can win.
Man Utd are unbeaten away this season. Their record away to middle eight sides in W4 D1.
They are W2 D1 away to London clubs.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Man Utd (W7 D2) have never lost a midweek game to Crystal Palace.
We Say….
Crystal Palace 0 Man Utd 3
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
THURSDAY 6:00PM UK
WEST BROM v EVERTON
MATCH STATS
Why West Brom can win
Everton won last start but haven’t put together back to back wins in their last nine fixtures.
Why Everton can win.
Everton are unbeaten in their last eight away games.
Everton (W3 D1) are undefeated away to bottom six sides.
They are also 3/3 away to midland sides.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Everton have won just one of 15 midweek games at The Hawthorns and that was back in 1963.
We Say….
West Brom 0 Everton 2
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
THURSDAY 6:00PM UK
FULHAM v SPURS
MATCH STATS
Why Fulham can win
Spurs have lost five of their last six league games, and Fulham just one of the their last seven.
Why Spurs can win.
Jose has lost only once in 11 games v Fulham.
Fulham are yet to beat a London club this season and have scored the fewest goals against them.
Spurs have won the last five matches at Fulham.
Barely Interesting Stat:
They’ve only met once on a Thursday, a 2-1 win for Spurs in a 2001 League Cup game.
We Say….
Fulham 2 Spurs 1
Premier League Predictions Week 26 – Match by Match
THURSDAY 8:15PM UK
LIVERPOOL v CHELSEA
MATCH STATS
Why Liverpool can win
Chelsea have won just one of 11 midweek league fixtures at Liverpool. That was the first back in 1907.
Why Chelsea can win.
Liverpool are 16th for last six form, Chelsea are second.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Liverpool have scored as many points as West Brom in their last six home games, and have even scored one goal fewer. At least they’ve only conceded nine to West Brom’s 20.
These teams haven’t met on a Thursday.
We Say….
Liverpool 0 Chelsea 0
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