If you’re struggling to keep up with which game week it is, or which competition is on, who is injured, and if Liverpool will ever win again. Same for us. But that will never stop our Premier League Predictions Week 25 and Preview.
Our preview ambles through the available Premier League fixtures, with a bunch of visuals, stats and figures for some barely interesting reading. And something new this week.
So many games, it’s going to feel like unlimited football or football overdose. Either way is fine by us.
This week the big game is Liverpool v Everton, and for the Leeds fan and admirers (and who isn’t this season) there’s double Leeds and to a lesser degree double the out-of-form Southampton.
For now, come for the predictions and stay for the Premier League Predictions Week 25.
Premier League Predictions Week 25- Season Results Summary
Tables are all good and well, but what about a much more colourful presentation of the results for the 20-21 Premier League season so far, with some opposition stats.
New Stat – Premier League Predictions Week 25- Expected Goals v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
A mouthful you say? Of course, stats aren’t meant to be easy.
What we have done is get the running difference between the expected goals and goals scored, and then compared that to the running points per game for each team.
One trend that looks reasonably clear, is the a team’s form looks to consistently slide once the xG v Goals scored has hit a negative peak, and vice versa for a surge in form and a positive xG v Goals.
So if it looks like a peak has been reached in the xG v Goals scored, then form is about to get better or worse depending on what side of the xG v Goals line the team is.
We have this measure in the previews below.
Relegation Fixture Difficulty
As part of our range of football analysis, we have our own fixture difficulty rating which includes recent and historical H2H, form, overall 20-21 performance and more.
For this week we included the six teams who we think are playing for the last drop spot to the Championship.
Fixture difficulty rating is out of 10 for each game and averages are provided below.
READ MORE – 2020-21 FIXTURE DIFFICULTY ANALYSIS
Premier League Predictions Week 25 – Match by Match
FRIDAY 8:00PM UK
WOLVES v LEEDS
MATCH STATS
Why Wolves can win
Wolves have won four of these fixtures in a row.
Why Leeds can win.
Leeds have scored two goals or more in five of their last six away games.
Wolves are yet to beat a team at home from outside of London.
The home side have won just three of the last ten clashes between these sides at either ground.
Barely Interesting Stat:
These teams have never met on a Friday.
No team has scored or conceded more on the road this season than Leeds. Their expected goals scored is just 18, seven off their actual goals scored away. Their expected goals against is within a goal.
Wolves expected goals overall is exactly the same as the goals they have scored – 25. Which is only one more than Leeds have scored away.
We Say….
Wolves 1 Leeds 1
SATURDAY 12:30PM UK
SOUTHAMPTON v CHELSEA
MATCH STATS
Why Southampton can win
Southampton have won two from two for home games against teams that were top six at the time of playing.
Why Chelsea can win.
Southampton have lost six games in a row.
The away side (W5 D1) have not lost any of the last six league matches.
Chelsea have won four in a row now.
Southampton have yet to beat a team from London in seven attempts.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Despite conceding nine goals to Man Utd, they have a smaller expected goals total against in February than two other sides – Spurs and Liverpool. Chelsea for the record have the lowest expected goals against this month.
We Say….
Southampton 1 Chelsea 2
SATURDAY 3:00PM UK
BURNLEY v WEST BROM
MATCH STATS
Why Burnley can win
Burnley (W2 D3) are undefeated against bottom six sides. West Brom’s record is 1/6 (D3 L2)
Burnley (W3 D2 L1) have lost just once against midland based teams this season.
Why West Brom can win.
West Brom have a decent record against teams from the north west for a side in the bottom three. They have drawn three of their last four games v north west sides (v Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd)
West Brom are the last team to take a point from Manchester City.
Barely Interesting Stat:
West Brom have the lowest shots per game of all the 92 teams in the top four divisions. Burnley are sixth worst. West Brom have the second lowest key passes per game.
West Brom and Burnley average around 0.7 goals per games this season, so you think this game would be a low scoring affair traditionally. However the last six games between these sides at Burnley average 3.5 goals per game, and includes a 1-0.
We Say….
Burnley 1 West Brom 2
SATURDAY 5:30PM UK
LIVERPOOL v EVERTON
MATCH STATS
Why Liverpool can win
Everton last beat Liverpool in 2010. Everton last beat Liverpool at Anfield in 1999. Everton last beat Liverpool at Anfield on a Saturday in 1995. Everton last beat Liverpool at Anfield on a Saturday in February in 1986. In fairness Everton haven’t beaten Liverpool for that last combination at Everton since 1986 either.
Liverpool (W4 D2) are unbeaten against middle eight teams this season.
Why Everton can win.
Everton (W3 D2 L1) have lost just once to the big six sides this season. Make it W1 D1 away from home.
Liverpool are currently 17th for last six home form and share the fourth lowest total of goals scored in those six games with Everton.
Everton have the second best away form and are unbeaten in their last seven away trips.
Everton have the third best Shots on Target % this season and second best conversion rate of those.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Liverpool last lost three games in a row back in 2017.
Last weekend’s loss to Leicester saw Liverpool’s winning percentage from the beginning of the 2019-20 season until now drop below 50%.
We Say….
Liverpool 2 Everton 0
SATURDAY 8:00PM UK
FULHAM v SHEFFIELD UTD
MATCH STATS
Why Fulham can win
Two of Fulham’s three wins this season have come against sides in the midland area.
Fulham (W1 D4) are undefeated against bottom six sides this season. Sheffield Utd’s record isn’t too bad either (W2 D2 L2).
Fulham (W3 D1) are undefeated in the last four v Sheffield Utd.
Sheffield Utd have scored just one point in eight games v London clubs.
Sheffield Utd haven’t beaten Fulham at Fulham on a Saturday since 1966.
Why Sheffield Utd can win.
Sheffield Utd aren’t that bad.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Fulham and Sheffield Utd have the worst and second worst goal conversion % this season. Both teams are underperforming their xG by eight goals.
The only two league games between these sides to have been played in February have ended 1-1.
We Say….
Fulham 2 Sheffield Utd 0
SUNDAY 12:00PM UK
WEST HAM v SPURS
MATCH STATS
Why West Ham can win
Spurs have won just once this season in six games v London clubs (D4 L1). West Ham have won two games in seven attempts.
Spurs (L5 D1) have not yet beaten a top six side yet.
West Ham (W6 D4) are unbeaten against sides from the middle eight this season.
Why Spurs can win.
Spurs have won the last four games at West Ham. Spurs have scored three on three of those occasions.
Jose Mourinho has never lost to a team managed by David Moyes (W9 D6)
Barely Interesting Stat:
The away side has scored exactly three goals in five of the last nine clashes between these sides.
This match averages nearly four goals a game on a Sunday.
We Say….
West Ham 2 Spurs 1
SUNDAY 2:00PM UK
ASTON VILLA v LEICESTER
MATCH STATS
Why Aston Villa can win
Although helped by thrashing Liverpool 7-2 earlier in the season, Aston Villa have scored the second most amount of goals against top six sides this season.
Aston Villa are 4/4 against sides from the midlands. Leicester’s only loss to a midlands side was by Aston Villa 0-1.
Why Leicester can win.
Leicester are on a run of seven unbeaten away, with two clean sheets in a row.
Aston Villa have dropped as low as 16th for last six form, behind West Brom on goals scored.
Leicester have the best goal conversion rate in the Premier League.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Neither side has scored back to back wins against the other in this fixture since 2006.
We Say….
Aston Villa 1 Leicester 3
SUNDAY 4:30PM UK
ARSENAL v MANCHESTER CITY
MATCH STATS
Why Arsenal can win
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six home games and up to third in last six home form.
Man City’s away form to London clubs is comparatively underwhelming (W1 D1 L1)
Arsenal are unbeaten in two home games v big six sides.
Why Man City can win.
Man City have won 11 in a row. Arsenal’s biggest run of wins this season is three.
Man City have won seven straight league games v Arsenal. Throw in a few more draws and wins and Arsenal haven’t beaten Man City in the league since 2015. It’s four in a row on a Sunday.
Arsenal have been outscored 0-7 in their last three home games v Man City.
Arsenal have won 1/6 v sides from the north west.
Barely Interesting Stat:
If you took the table from the beginning of Man City’s 11 game winning streak, Man City would be 10 points clear of Man Utd with a game in hand. Arsenal are actually a respectable fifth behind Leicester and West Ham.
We Say….
Arsenal 0 Man City 3
SUNDAY 7:00PM UK
MANCHESTER UTD v NEWCASTLE
MATCH STATS
Why Man Utd can win
Man Utd have won the last three at home to Newcastle, and haven’t lost at home to them since 2013. Newcastle have only won once at Man Utd in the Premier League era.
Newcastle haven’t won any of their seven games v big six team this season. Two draws is their best result.
Newcastle have won just one away game north of London this season.
Why Newcastle can win.
Newcastle have won the last two matches v Man Utd on a Sunday.
Man Utd have played two bottom six sides this season at home, and their record is W1 L1.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Former Man Utd player Steve Bruce has a woeful record as a manager v Man Utd. He has been in charge of just one victory in 25 attempts and the points per game is the lowest of any opponent he his teams have played more than once.
We Say….
Man Utd 4 Newcastle 0
MONDAY 8:00PM UK
BRIGHTON v CRYSTAL PALACE
MATCH STATS
Why Brighton can win
Brighton won their last home game v a London side.
Brighton have won the most recent midweek match between the sides.
Brighton are unbeaten in their last six games.
Why Crystal Palace can win.
Crystal Palace are unbeaten in two game v south coast teams.
Crystal Palace won the most recent match at Brighton.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Crystal Palace have the worst expected goals total since January 1 with just 5.18 in eight games. Brighton despite their lower position on the table has an expected goal total over twice that or Crystal Palace and are a high as sixth best – ahead of Chelsea and Leicester.
Two EPL sides have not lost any of their last six games – conceding just one goal. Man City and Brighton. The difference is Brighton have scored only four and their record is 3-3-0. Still Brighton are fourth for last six form.
We Say….
Brighton 2 Crystal Palace 0
TUESDAY 6:00PM UK
LEEDS v SOUTHAMPTON
MATCH STATS
Why Leeds can win
Leeds are unbeaten in four games at home to middle eight sides.
Southampton haven’t won any of their last five away games.
Why Southampton can win.
Southampton have won five of the last six v Leeds in the league.
Southampton are unbeaten in three games away to middle eight sides.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Leeds (W5 D5) have never lost a midweek game at home to Southampton. The Saints have only won two games at Southampton v Leeds given them a 2/16 record overall midweek. Their last win was in the 1979 FA Cup. This was only time they beat Leeds on a Tuesday.
Just one of the 92 games played between these sides was been in February. Southampton won the only game in 1998.
Leeds games have averaged over three goals a game in the last six, Southampton is up to four goals per game. Helped by a certain 0-9.
We Say….
Leeds 2 Southampton 2
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