If you’re struggling to keep up with which game week it is, or which competition is on, who is injured, and if Liverpool will ever win again. Same for us. But that will never stop our Premier League Predictions Week 24 and Preview.
Our preview ambles through the available Premier League fixtures, with a bunch of visuals, stats and figures for some barely interesting reading. And something new this week.
So many games, it’s going to feel like unlimited football or football overdose. Either way is fine by us.
For now, come for the predictions and stay for the Premier League Predictions Week 24.
Premier League Predictions Week 24- Season Results Summary
Tables are all good and well, but what about a much more colourful presentation of the results for the 20-21 Premier League season so far, with some opposition stats.
New Stat – Premier League Predictions Week 24- Expected Goals v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
A mouthful you say? Of course, stats aren’t meant to be easy.
What we have done is get the running difference between the expected goals and goals scored, and then compared that to the running points per game for each team.
One trend that looks reasonably clear, is the a team’s form looks to consistently slide once the xG v Goals scored has hit a negative peak, and vice versa for a surge in form and a positive xg v Goals.
So if it looks like a peak has been reached in the xG v Goals scored, then form is about to get better or worse depending on what side of the xG v Goals line the team is.
We have this measure in the previews below.
Premier League Predictions Week 24 – Match by Match
SATURDAY 12:30PM UK
LEICESTER v LIVERPOOL
MATCH STATS
Why Leicester can win
Liverpool (D3 L1) are yet to beat side away from home north of London.
Leicester have conceded half the goals in the last six than Liverpool.
Why Liverpool can win.
Leicester (L2 D1) are yet to beat a top six side at home this season.
Liverpool have won the last three league games at Leicester.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Liverpool have won the last eight games played between these sides on a Saturday. You have to go back to 2001 for the last win by Leicester on a Saturday.
We Say….
Leicester 1 Liverpool 3
xG v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
SATURDAY 3:00PM UK
CRYSTAL PALACE v BURNLEY
MATCH STATS
Why Crystal Palace can win
Burnley have scored one point in six game against middle eight teams away.
Crystal Palace (W3 D1) are undefeated at home to the bottom six sides.
Burnley have scored just two goals in the last six away games.
Why Burnley can win.
Burnley have won the last two meeting. By 1-0.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Crystal Palace have won thr last four games between these sides on a Saturday.
We Say….
Crystal Palace 0 Burnley 1
xG v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
SATURDAY 5:30PM UK
MANCHESTER CITY v SPURS
MATCH STATS
Why Man City can win
Man City have won ten league games in a row and not lost in 14 in the league. Spurs have lost five games over the same period.
Spurs have won just once in the past six away games.
Man City are unbeaten at home to the middle eight teams.
Why Spurs can win.
Spurs have won the last two games v Man City 2-0.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Spurs have won at Manchester once the last 10 seasons (11 games).
You have to go back to 2004 for their last win in Manchester on a Saturday.
We Say….
Man City 3 Spurs 0
xG v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
SATURDAY 8:00PM UK
BRIGHTON v ASTON VILLA
MATCH STATS
Why Brighton can win
They beat Spurs last time out at home. And have lost just one of their last five home games. Although that last home win was their first of the season.
Brighton have the highest deficit between xg and scoring goals, but it appears that may be turning.
Why Aston Villa can win.
Aston Villa have won 5/6 away to side lower than the top six.
Brighton are yet to beat a side from the midlands at home. Or lose to them either in three games.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Only four teams have lost fewer games at home this season than Brighton (W1 D6 L4)
Brighton last beat Aston Villa at home six games ago – in 1980.
We Say….
Brighton 1 Aston Villa 2
xG v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
SUNDAY 12:00PM UK
SOUTHAMPTON v WOLVES
MATCH STATS
Why Southampton can win
Wolves are dead last for last six form away. They are the only side without an away win in the last six trips.
Southampton have won the only match on a Sunday between these teams. A 2-0 win in the 2003 FA Cup.
Why Wolves can win.
Southampton have a poor record at home to middle eight sides (L5 W1 D1)
Wolves have won three of the past four matches at Southampton.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Southampton may have a poor record at home to middle eight sides but either side of that they have a 100% against top and bottom six sides at home.
We Say….
Southampton 0 Wolves 0
xG v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
SUNDAY 2:00PM UK
WEST BROM v MANCHESTER UTD
MATCH STATS
Why West Brom can win
West Brom won the last match between these teams on a Sunday 1-0 in 2018 at Old Traford.
Why Man Utd can win.
West Brom have one draw to their name from their last six home games and are conceding at four goals a game compared to 0.5 goals per game in attack.
West Brom have one draw from eight games at home to sides outside of the bottom six. Man Utd have a perfect record away to bottom six sides.
MAn Utd are the number one team away this season. They have not yet been beaten (W8 D3) and have scored the most away goals.
Barely Interesting Stat:
West brom have conceded on average 2.8 goals per game this season. This is the worst rate of conceding goals of the four English Divisions and top five league around Europe.
We Say….
West Brom 0 Man Utd 5
xG v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
SUNDAY 4:30PM UK
ARSENAL v LEEDS UTD
MATCH STATS
Why Arsenal can win
Arsenal’s last five home games have ended (most recent result first) DWDWD. So win it is…
Leeds have lost all three away games in London.
Why Leeds can win.
Arsenal perform worse at home to non big six sides than big six sides.
Leeds have scored almost twice as many goals away from home than Arsenal have at home. They have also conceded exactly twice as many goals away as Arsenal have at home.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Leeds haven’t beaten Arsenal in eight games with their last win coming back in 2003,
There has been only one goal scored in the last three matches between these sides in February.
We Say….
Arsenal 1 Leeds 2
xG v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
SUNDAY 7:00PM UK
EVERTON v FULHAM
MATCH STATS
Why Everton can win
Fulham have the longest winless streak currently on 12 games without a win. They have also scored just three in the last six games – the Premier League’s worst return for the last six games.
Everton are 5/6 for matches against London sides.
Why Fulham can win.
Fulham have a better record on the road against top six sides than middle eight or bottom six.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Everton have won 12 in a row v Fulham at home. Fulham have won just 2/32 at Everton with 24 losses. Their last win coming 17 games ago in 1975.
We Say….
Everton 3 Fulham 0
xG v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
MONDAY 6:00PM UK
WEST HAM v SHEFFIELD UTD
MATCH STATS
Why West Ham can win
West Ham have beaten all three travelling sides from the midlands this season.
Sheffield Utd have lost all three road trips to London.
Why Sheffield Utd can win.
Sheffield Utd have beaten Man Utd away recently.
Sheffield Utd have won six of the last eight games played on a Monday with one draw and a loss.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Sheffield Utd have won the last two times they have faced a side with United in their name.
Six of the last eight games between these sides at West Ham have ended in a draw.
We Say….
West Ham 2 Sheffield Utd 0
xG v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
MONDAY 8:00PM UK
CHELSEA v NEWCASTLE
MATCH STATS
Why Chelsea can win
Chelsea have a 100% record v bottom six sides at home this season, Newcastle have 0 points away to top six sides.
Chelsea have now won three in a row. The second best current winning streak in the league.
Chelsea have won the last eight straight at home v Newcastle. Newcastle have scored three times.
Why Newcastle can win.
They beat Southampton with nine men.
Newcastle have won two of their last three.
Newcastle’s record away in London isn’t too bad W2 D1 L1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Chelsea (W5 D2) have never lost to Newcastle on a Monday.
We Say….
Chelsea 4 Newcastle 0
xG v Goals Scored v Rolling Points per Game
