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After arguably the best weekend of football for the season so far, our 2020-21 Premier League Week 6 Predictions and preview has plenty to live up to. It will deliver loads of stats and a decent prediction or two for the discerning football fan.
This weekend looks a treat, with a Friday night special kicking off the weekend, going all the way through to Monday night (UK Time) for a four day football festival. To go with the major football grand finals in Australia it is almost sport saturation.
Even a West Ham v Man City match looks far more interesting than it did last season. One upside of Covid we guess is the new unpredictability of the EPL.
Our preview ambles through all ten Premier League fixtures, with a bunch of visuals, stats and figures for some barely interesting reading. And if that isn’t enough, we throw in our 2020-21 Premier League Week 6 Predictions for each game.
Come for the stats, stay for the predictions.
Premier League Week 6 Predictions – Preview Summary
H2H stats are for all time unless stated, and other stats are based on last season.
This week we have included a new progressive view on xG.
FRIDAY GAMES
ASTON VILLA v LEEDS
MATCH STATS
Why Aston Villa can win
They are the only team left in the top four tiers of English football with 100% record this season.
Their eight game unbeaten run is the current longest in the Premier League. They have only conceded four goals in those eight games. The next best defensive team for just this season is Arsenal on six goals.
Jack Grealish.
Leeds haven’t won any of the six games played on a Friday v Aston Villa. (4L 2D)
Why Leeds can win.
Leeds won the most recent clash at Villa Park 3-2 in 2018 in the Championship.
Marcelo Bielsa.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Aston Villa are currently the team with the best difference between expected goals against and actual goals. 3.71 were expected but only two conceded. Only three other teams have conceded less than their xA – Arsenal, Wolves and Crystal Palace.
The last time Leeds beat Aston Villa in October was in 1935 and it was their only win of 12 games.
Why Should We Care
Unbeaten Aston Villa v Bielsa’s Leeds. Friday night football. Hard to please if you’re not interested.
We Say….
Aston Villa 1 Leeds 1
SATURDAY GAMES
WEST HAM v MAN CITY
MATCH STATS
Why West Ham can win
The last time these teams met at West Ham on a Saturday in October West Ham won 2-1, in 2014.
West Ham have scored ten goals in their past three games. Second best for the last three games.
West Ham’s recent wins and comeback against Spurs have been mightily impressive.
Why Man City can win.
West Ham have just an 18% winning record v Man City since 2000.
Man City have won the last five matches at West Ham by the total of 22-1.;
West Ham had the lowest points total against teams from the north west last season.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Man City have seven points, have scored seven goals and conceded seven goals. Sadly they are 11th not 7th for the sake of numbers.
Why Should We Care
After West Ham’s comeback v Spurs, after thrashing Leicester, anything seems possible. That or loads of goals if you look at Man City @ West Ham.
We Say….
West Ham 1 Man City 3
FULHAM v CRYSTAL PALACE
MATCH STATS
Why Fulham can win
Fulham won the last match between these sides in October. They have lost just one of the past seven in October.
Why Crystal Palace can win.
Fulham are yet to score at home this season in two games. Crystal Palace have at least three times in two away games.
Crystal Palace have won four of their past five away games including last season.
Fulham are one of only three teams that have scored less than their xG this season. All three teams are in the bottom three. Crystal Palace are one of four teams to have conceded less than expected so far this season.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Palace did the double over Fulham last Premier League season together. Both games ended up 2-0.
Why Should We Care
Maybe one for the fans of either club.
We Say….
Fulham 0 Crystal Palace 0
MANCHESTER UTD v CHELSEA
MATCH STATS
Why Man Utd can win
Man Utd’s late goals v Newcastle and win over PSG in the Champions League gives them the kick start their season badly needed.
Man Utd averaged 2.6 points per game last season v teams with blue kits.
Man Utd did the double over Chelsea last season, winning the two games by a combined 6-0.
They are also unbeaten in the last five league games v Chelsea (3W 2D)
Why Chelsea can win.
Man Utd were flogged in their last home game v Spurs 6-1. Chelsea are another London side.
Man Utd have not beaten Chelsea on a Saturday since 2003.
Timo Werner looks like his is finally warming up to the Premier League.
Barely Interesting Stat:
There have been four previous Man Utd v Chelsea games in October at Man Utd, all four ended up draws.
Why Should We Care
It is the premium big name clash of the weekend.
We Say….
Man Utd 2 Chelsea 2
LIVERPOOL v SHEFFIELD UTD
MATCH STATS
Why Liverpool can win
Liverpool have won every game at Anfield v Sheffield Utd since 2000. It is only three games. But Liverpool have outscored Sheffield Utd by 8-0 in those three games.
Sheff Utd last won in the Premier League in 1994, but did beat Liverpool in the cup in between.
Sheffield scored their first point last weekend. They are also the competition’s lowest scorer with just 2 goals in total so far this season.
Why Sheffield Utd can win.
Liverpool’s results this season against midlands/north east teams is quite poor. Aston Villa flogged them 7-2, Leeds only lost 4-3 at Anfield in the two games v sides in the middle of England.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Liverpool have conceded 13 goals this season so far. It took 13 games to concede the same amount of goals last season.
Why Should We Care
How can Liverpool go without Virgil van Dijk? It’s not as if Liverpool’s defense was great with him in the side,
We Say….
Liverpool 4 Sheffield Utd 1
SUNDAY GAMES
SOUTHAMPTON v EVERTON
MATCH STATS
Why Southampton can win
Everton have won just two of the last ten games at Southampton.
The Saints have the advantage on a Sunday at Southampton (W2 1D)
Why Everton can win.
They are leading the Premier League, and were able to hold Liverpool to a draw at home. Again.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is one of the form strikers in the competition. Although looking back at the last season and a bit, you have to say the same for Danny Ings.
Everton have conceded just one away goal.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Southampton have won just twice in 14 games that have been played in October.
Why Should We Care
Because Everton are a good football story this season and play some decent football. Southampton are inconsistent enough to make any game at home entertaining.
We Say….
Southampton 1 Everton 1
WOLVES v NEWCASTLE
MATCH STATS
Why Wolves can win
Wolves seem to be experts of the 1-0 win in a tight game.
Wolves have won the only Sunday game at Wolves. There have been four games on a Sunday all up and Wolves haven’t lost any of them (W2 – D2)
Why Newcastle can win.
Newcastle have conceded just one goal away this season.
Newcastle haven’t lost to Wolves in the last six meetings at Wolves (W2 – D4)
Barely Interesting Stat:
Five of the last eight games between these sides played in October have ended in a draw.
The last three games between these sides have ended 1-1.
Why Should We Care
Not quite sure that we should. Do love the Max though.
We Say….
Wolves 0 Newcastle 0
ARSENAL v LEICESTER
MATCH STATS
Why Arsenal can win
Arsenal haven’t lost to Leicester at home this century so far.
Leicester have won just six of 71 clashes at Arsenal of all time.
Their latest win there was back in 1973.
Arsenal are undefeated at home to Leicester on a Sunday.
Why Leicester can win.
They beat Man City away 5-2 earlier in the season.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Arsenal are undefeated at home to Leicester on a Sunday.
Arsenal are unbeaten at home on a midweek date.
Why Should We Care
Top six clash which should be reasonably entertaining.
We Say….
Arsenal 2 Leicester 1
MONDAY GAMES
BRIGHTON v WEST BROM
MATCH STATS
Why Brighton can win
Brighton have won their last three home fixtures v West Brom in the league. And they won each game by two goals.
Brighton have had the third highest amount of shots this season so far, behind Liverpool and Man City. West Brom are second last with almost half of the shots. Interestingly, Arsenal are third last.
Why West Brom can win.
There’s only been one Monday clash between these sides and Brom won that 3-0 in 1990.
Brighton score 0.4 points per game less last season against sides with striped kits.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Only two clashes between West Brom and Brighton in October and both ended in draws.
Why Should We Care
Brighton always seem to play well every time we see them yet they are almost in the bottom three. Perhaps this is the game everything goes right for them.
We Say….
Brighton 3 West Brom 0
BURNLEY v SPURS
MATCH STATS
Why Burnley can win
Burnley held Spurs to a draw at home last season.
Going back to 2000, Spurs have only won two of ten clashes at Burnley.
Why Spurs can win.
Spurs have lost to Burnley just once in their last 12 matches.
Spurs have the most shots on target per game this season.
Spurs’ last trip to the north west ended in a 6-1 thrashing of Man Utd.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Burnley have won all three games at home to Spurs in October. The last such even was back in 1935.
Why Should We Care
You may not by this stage with the football overload, but Spurs are playing great, and FPL players will be sweating on the FPL point scoring machines that have been Kane and S
We Say….
Burnley 0 Spurs 3
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