2020-2021 Premier League Predictions Week 4 and Preview

FOR THE CURRENT 2021-22 PREMIER LEAGUE WEEK 4 PREDICTIONS CLICK HERE

What a weekend of Premier League football Gameweek 3 was, arguably the best weekend of football for the season so far. Big upset results, some new names up the top of the Premier League table, and plenty of contro-VAR-sy.  Our puns are bad, but our 2020-21 Premier League Week 4 Predictions and preview has plenty more to it.

This preview ambles through all ten Premier League fixtures, with a bunch of visuals, stats and figures for some barely interesting reading. And if that isn’t enough, we throw in our 2020-21 Premier League Week 4 Predictions for each game.

Premier League Week 3 – Best Stats from last weekend…

• The last team to score five goals at Manchester City, other than the home sides, was Arsenal in 2003 when they won 5-1.
• Counting bakwards, it took Manchester City 11 games to match the total of goals Leicester scored at the Etihad last season.
• Sheffield United are one of seven Football League teams not to have scored a goals this season. Their expected goals says 3.33. Their former player Callum Robinson has scored two since moving to West Brom for this season.
• Brighton’s xG was higher than Man Utd’s despite losing, the second home game that has happened.
• Sheffield Utd haven’t started off the season with 3 straight losses in the league since 1995-96.

Premier League Week 4 Predictions – Preview Summary

Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 3. With loads of stats as below.

H2H stats are for all time unless stated, and other stats are based on last season. The visual will expand into 2020-21 after GW3.

SATURDAY GAMES

CHELSEA v CRYSTAL PALACE

MATCH STATS

Why Chelsea can win

Chelsea have won the last three in a row at Stamford Bridge v Crystal Palace.

Chelsea have won five in a row at all grounds.

Chelsea have scored in all of the last 12 clashes with Crystal Palace who have blanked five times in the same run.

Why Crystal Palace can win.

Crystal Palace are unbeaten this season away to the big six sides.

Palace have conceded half the amount of goals than Chelsea this season. Or the same amount as they did last weekend v WBA.

Chelsea’s record at home last season against fellow London sides was worst against mid table sides. It was perfect against sides in the top six and bottom six when Chelsea played them.

Crystal Palace’s xG Against compared to actual goals conceded is the second best in the competition, behind Newcastle.

Before last season restarted and Crystal Palace appeared to give up, Crystal Palace lost as many games away as Chelsea did last season at home to the same point.

Barely Interesting Stat:

This is the first meeting between these sides in October that has been played at Chelsea. Three games have all been at Selhurst Park.

We Say….

We’ve made way too many arguments for Crystal Palace to not tip them to pick up a point.

Chelsea 1 Crystal Palace 1

EVERTON v BRIGHTON

MATCH STATS

Why Everton can win

They have won 3/3.

Everton have the second lowest xG Against of any side this season. Behind Aston Villa who haven’t conceded yet in two games.

Brighton have never beaten Everton at home. Six wins to Everton and two draws.

Brighton have only scored in four of those eight home games.

Why Brighton can win.

Brighton did score three goals in their only away game this season so far. Although, it was against a dreadful Newcastle who haven’t won their first home game in over a decade.

Brighton have yet to conceded away this season.

Everton only averaged 1.17 points v South Coast sides last season. Not that Brighton can talk, they averaged 0.7 points v North West sides last season.

Brighton broke the Premier League record for hitting the woodwork last weekend, so are only mm away from a big bag O goals.

Barely Interesting Stat:

The away side hasn’t won this game since 1983, and that was Everton.

We Say….

Both of these sides have impressed massively this season so far, with only Everton showing the points total they deserve.

Everton 2 Brighton 2

LEEDS UTD v MANCHESTER CITY

MATCH STATS

Why Leeds can win

Why not? They scored three at Liverpool in the first week of the new season.

Man City lost 3-2 to he then recently promoted Norwich away last season.

Man City don’t do well when going behind to an early scores, Leeds have scored twice in the first 15 minutes this season, along with four other teams.

Only Leicester are out-performing their Expected Goals by more.

Leeds have scored four goals in their last two home league games.

Why Man City can win.

Man City won every game after they had lost in the previous Premier League game last season. Most by plenty.

Man City did score 45 goals away from home last season. Leeds Utd topped the championship with 37 goals in four more games than Man City.

Kevin de Bruyne – who scored three goals and provided six assists in the games v promoted clubs.

Barely Interesting Stat:

Leeds have won 50% of the matches since 2000. But they have met only once since 2004 when Leeds were last in the Premier League.

Man City have scored five, four and three goals away from home in their last three away games. So two goals is due then.

Man City have won just two of ten matches between these sides in October. And not since 1967. Man City haven’t scored in the last five games in October v Leeds.

We Say….

This should be plenty entertaining with one of the best modern day managers up against someone he looks up to.

Leeds 1 Man City 2

NEWCASTLE v BURNLEY

MATCH STATS

Why Newcastle can win

Burnley haven’t scored a point yet this season.

Newcastle struggle at home early in the season.

Newcastle 

Why Burnley can win.

According to Who Scored, Newcastle have had just one shot on target per game this season. The lowest. By more than double to next worst Sheffield United who haven’t scored a goal.

Barely Interesting Stat:

Burnley haven’t won at Newcastle since 1976. The year the VHS video tape was released.

Newcastle haven’t scored a goal v Burnley on a Saturday since 1982, four games ago.

We Say….

This could be plenty dull, and will probably de decided by Newcastle’s only shot on target. Or a dodgy VAR penalty.

Newcastle 1 Burnley 0

SUNDAY GAMES

SOUTHAMPTON v WEST BROM

MATCH STATS

Why Southampton can win

West Brom are averaging nearly four goals a game conceded so far.

Southampton have won the last four games in a row.

West Brom haven’t won against Southampton since 1979 – five games ago for the calendar month.

West Brom have the worst expected goals this season.

Why West Brom can win.

They seem to have no troubles scoring goals. They’ve scored more than Southampton so far.

They still have the best kit for the season.

Barely Interesting Stat:

These sides have never met on a Sunday.

These two sides are currently last and second last for Key Passes per game.

We Say….

Southampton will likely improve on the goals they conceded in their last game. 

Southampton 3 West Brom 1

LEICESTER v WEST HAM

MATCH STATS

Why Leicester can win

They beat Manchester City 5-2 last weekend. So anything is possible.

Leicester are massively overperforming against their expected goals. xG says 6.81, they have scored 12.

Leicester have lost just once in the last eight games v West Ham.

Leicester had a 100% at home last season to London sides not in the top six when Leicester played them.

Why West Ham can win.

If West Ham can beat Wolves at home 4-0 then any result is possible. 

David Moyes has perfected working from home for football management.

Barely Interesting Stat:

Leicester have won just one of the last seven clashes between these sides in October.

We Say….

These two sides produced shock wins last week, so cynically we’d offer that this will be a 0-0. But with Jamie Vardy on a hot streak of form that’s unlikely.

Leicester 2 West Ham 0

WOLVES v FULHAM

MATCH STATS

Why Wolves can win

Because Fulham look even more ill equipped to survive in the Premier League than last time.

Fulham have won one of their last 24 away games in the Premier League.

Fulham haven’t beaten Wolves in their last 15 meetings at Wolves. 1985 was the last win.

Wolves won both their home games against bottom six London sides last season.

Why Fulham can win.

Fulham won the last game between these two sides on a Sunday 5-0. Wolves did win the other three Sunday clashes.

Wolves have lost all their games to London sides this season.

Barely Interesting Stat:

These two sides were promoted together in 2018-19.

We Say….

Everything points towards a Wolves win, except for their 4-0 loss at West Ham last weekend.

Wolves 4 Fulham 0

ARSENAL v SHEFFIELD UTD

MATCH STATS

Why Arsenal can win

Sheffield Utd have now lost their last six Premier League games.

Sheffield United haven’t beaten Arsenal away since 1971.

Arsenal have won the only clash at Arsenal in October.

Why Sheffield Utd can win.

Because you expect Arsenal to win.

Arsenal’s points per game dropped off against sides with a striped kit last season – (2.08 v 1.50).

Barely Interesting Stat:

Sheffield United are one of seven teams who have yet to score a goal in the league this season throughout the four English divisions. They are the only Premier League club and join three Championship sides and three League Two sides. There are no League One sides on zero goals.

Sheffield Utd have conceded fewer goals than 10 other league sides this season.

There have been four matches between these sides on a Sunday, all of them in the cup.

We Say….

There were worries from us that the Blades would do an Ipswich Town this season, and things don’t look too good so far. We reckon the turnaround will come this weekend against Arsenal, but only as far as a draw.

Arsenal 1 Sheffield Utd 1

MANCHESTER UTD v SPURS

MATCH STATS

Why Man Utd can win

Man Utd have won six of the last seven home games v Spurs. Jose was in charge of Man Utd for that loss.

Spurs have never beaten Man Utd at home on a Sunday. Nine losses – two draws.

Spurs have won two games in ten played in Manchester in October.

Why Spurs can win.

Spurs average the most shots on target per games this season. Double Man Utd, although that is likely helped by their thrashing of Southampton.

Speaking of which, Spurs average five goals a game away this season.

Man Utd have the worst expected goals against of the four sides that have played only twice this season. Their xG against is bad enough for 8th worst.

Barely Interesting Stat:

Spurs may have won two of the last four games between these sides on a Sunday, but those two wins are their only successes in 23 Sunday games.

We Say….

This will surely all be about Jose, how about 2-2 with all goals coming from penalties.

Man Utd 2 Spurs 2

ASTON VILLA v LIVERPOOL

MATCH STATS

Why Aston Villa can win

Villa are yet to concede a goal. Good luck holding onto that stat this weekend.

Why Liverpool can win.

Liverpool’s last trip to Aston Villa on a Sunday ended in a 6-0 win.

Liverpool have won the last five league games v Aston Villa.

Aston Villa haven’t beaten Liverpool in October since 1952. Seven losses and a draw ago.

Barely Interesting Stat:

Aston Villa and Liverpool are first and second for Key Passes per game. Villa are on top.

We Say….

Aston Villa have started off well against struggling sides, and their true test comes this weekend. Liverpool look just as good as last year.

Aston Villa 1 Liverpool 3