FOR THE 2021-22 SEASON WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS CLICK HERE.
What a weekend of Premier League football Gameweek 2 was, probably the best weekend of football for the season so far. Goals a plenty, upset results, hat tricks, four goals bags, red cards. Our 2020-21 Premier League Week 3 Predictions and preview has a lot to live up to.
This preview ambles through all ten Premier League fixtures, with a bunch of visuals, stats and figures for some barely interesting reading. And if that isn’t enough, we throw in our 2020-21 Premier League Week 2 Predictions for each game.
Premier League Week 2 – Best Stats from last weekend…
- The last two teams to score five goals or more v Southampton at Southampton were Leicester last season, and Arsenal in 16/17. Both teams went on to finish 5th at the end of the season. All about fives.
- The last time Leicester started a season with two wins they won the title.
- Everton didn’t beat any promoted team at home last season, but are now 1/1 in 20/21.
- Everton last scored five goals v Burnley away in Dec 2018, and at home in Feb 2017 v Bournemouth.
- Leeds Utd have scored three of more goals in their last four matches. Interestingly it is three in their last two away and four in their last two at home.
- Leeds are also unbeaten in the last eight homes games (1 Draw)
- Leicester’s xG v Burnley was 0.99, three goals less than what they actually scored. Burnley’s was higher at 1.52.
- For the second week running Leeds Utd’s xG was more than 2.5 goals lower than what they actually scored. Leeds Utd are outperforming their Expected Goals by 5.2 already.
- Man Utd have now not beaten Crystal Palace in three straight home games.
- Newcastle haven’t won their first home game since 2012/13. Which was against Spurs.
- Brighton remain unbeaten v Newcastle in the Premier League. The three goals in last weekend’s clash almost matched the four goals scored between these sides in the previous six meetings.
Premier League Week 3 Predictions – Preview Summary
Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 3. With loads of stats as below.
H2H stats are for all time unless stated, and other stats are based on last season. The visual will expand into 2020-21 after GW3.
SATURDAY GAMES
BRIGHTON v MANCHESTER UTD
MATCH STATS
Why Brighton can win
After Crystal Palace’s win over Man Utd last weekend, Brighton will want to outdo their fierce rivals with an even bigger win this weekend.
Brighton’s xG against Chelsea in the first week was higher than Chelsea’s despite losing, and they knocked in three against Newcastle last weekend.
Why Man Utd can win.
Brighton have beaten Manchester Utd only once on a Saturday.
Man Utd comfortably outplayed Brighton last season at Brighton, in the post restart period when they were arguably the best team in h league for a while.
According to Transfermarkt website – Man Utd’s team is four time more valuable.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Brighton won the last league game at Brighton v Man Utd on a Saturday – in 1982.
We Say….
Brighton 1 Man Utd 1
CRYSTAL PALACE v EVERTON
MATCH STATS
Why Crystal Palace can win
Crystal Palace have won 2/2.
Everton won just once in London last season. This match was 0-0 in 19-20.
Zaha has not got a summer transfer yet, so has not passed his peak form.
Why Everton can win.
Everton have won 2/2.
Crystal Palace haven’t beaten Everton at home since 1994.
They haven’t beaten them on a Saturday anywhere since 1997.
Everton are unbeaten in all trips to London this season.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Crystal Palace have scored in just one home game v Everton of the past seven fixtures at Selhurst Park – a 2-2 draw.
We Say….
Crystal Palace 1 Everton 2
WEST BROM v CHELSEA
MATCH STATS
Why West Brom can win
Chelsea conceded at two goals per game last season away from home, and their defense has hardly improved. Chelsea conceded 16 goals in their last four away games.
While Chelsea won their last match at the Hawthorns, they had lost the two games before that.
Why Chelsea can win.
Because West Brom haven’t won a game or a point yet.
Chelsea scored nine more goals on the road last season than at home.
For an extra lack of confidence, West Brom were knocked out of the League Cup by Brentford. But that’s really Brentford’s fault as they had every chance of being promoted instead of West Brom and choked.
West Brom are the only team to play played twice and still under one expected goal.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Chelsea haven’t won any of the last five matches on a Saturday in September. Their last win on such an occasion was back in 1936.
We Say….
West Brom 1 Chelsea 4
BURNLEY v SOUTHAMPTON
MATCH STATS
Why Burnley can win
Burnley have lost one fewer game this season than Southampton.
Southampton last beat Burnley anywhere in 2016 – eight fixtures ago.
Southampton last beat Burnley away in 2007 – seven fixtures ago.
Southampton did concede five goals last weekend, slightly worse than Burnley’s four.
Why Southampton can win.
Southampton are actually fourth for expected goals this season, so are due to turn it around.
Southampton were the third best away team last season for points scored. Only behind the top two.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Burnley have only failed to score at least one goal in 30 games at home to Southampton.
We Say….
Burnley 1 Southampton 1
SHEFFIELD UTD v LEEDS UTD
MATCH STATS
Why Sheffield Utd can win
Leeds may well be getting lucky if you look at their expected goals v goals scored. Their expected goals is 1.72, five goals under their actual total.
Why Leeds Utd can win.
Sheffield Utd haven’t scored a goal yet.
Leeds have scored seven goals already this season. And three in their last two away games.
Leeds’ post lockdown form is hard to beat, especially against Sheffield United’s form.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Despite trailing nil goals to seven in scoring, Sheffield United’s expected goals is slightly higher than Leeds’.
Leeds won the last match at Brammall Lane in 2018, prior to that they last beat the Blades prior to the first Premier League season kicking off in 1992.
We Say….
Sheffield Utd 0 Leeds 2
SPURS v NEWCASTLE
MATCH STATS
Why Spurs can win
Spurs just scored five last weekend.
Newcastle were terrible last weekend.
Newcastle fell one goal short of conceding the most away from home at 37 in 19 games.
Why Newcastle can win.
Newcastle beat Spurs in London last season. And Spurs were truly terrible in the first home match of the season.
Newcastle won their first game this season in London (against West Ham)
Spurs haven’t beaten anyone north of Southampton this year.
Newcastle have won eight of their last 12 games on a Sunday, and three of the last four.
Barely Interesting Stat:
The away side has won nine of the last 13 clashes.
We Say….
Spurs 1 Newcastle 1
MAN CITY v LEICESTER CITY
MATCH STATS
Why Man City can win
Kevin de Bruyne.
Man City have won the last three clashes between the sides.
Man City have won their last four games at home v Leicester. Leicester last won at Man City in their premier era.
Man City’s post-restart form/points is far superior to Leicester City, the Foxes fizzled out at the tail end of last season. Pardon the pun about a Fox tail.
Leicester didn’t win any of their last eight away games last season.
Why Leicester can win
Only Leeds are the only team to have a bigger different between expected goals and actual goals scored this season.
Barely Interesting Stat:
This season’s goals have been brought to you by the letter L. Both Leeds and Leicester sit atop the high scorers with seven in two games.
Leicester haven’t beaten Man City in September since 1958.
We Say….
Man City 4 Leicester 0
WEST HAM v WOLVES
MATCH STATS
Why West Ham can win
West Ham are undefeated in two Sunday games v Wolves.
Why Wolves can win.
Wolves have won four straight against West Ham.
West Ham yet yet to win a game. Or score a point this season.
Coronavirus scare through West Ham won’t help. Although missing David Moyes might.
Barely Interesting Stat:
West Ham may have lost the last four games v Wolves, but they also haven’t scored a goal in those four games.
We Say….
West Ham 1 Wolves 2
FULHAM v ASTON VILLA
MATCH STATS
Why Aston Villa can win
Villa are the only team to have not conceded a goal this season so far.
Fulham have conceded at least three goals in each game thus far this season.
Villa had a healthy 2.3 points per game v bottom 6 sides in 19/20.
Aston Villa recruiting is getting better.
Why Fulham can win.
Aston Villa scored at 0.6 goals per game, which is well below Fulham.
Barely Interesting Stat:
This is the first September meeting between these sides since 1973.
We Say….
Fulham 0 Aston Villa 2
LIVERPOOL v ARSENAL
MATCH STATS
Why Liverpool can win
If it isn’t Salah and then it is Mane. What a combo..
Liverpool lead the league for expected goals.
Before last time out’s shock loss to Arsenal, Liverpool had not lost a home game in ten matches v Arsenal.
Liverpool haven’t lost a home game for years. Arsenal haven’t won since 2012.
Why Arsenal can win.
Because Arsenal won this game at Emirates last season. Although Liverpool did disappear at first before it was found.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Arsenal won the only game on a Sunday in September back in 2012.
We Say….
Liverpool 5 Arsenal 1
