SUNDAY GAMES
SOUTHAMPTON v SPURS
MATCH STATS
Why Southampton can win
Southampton haven’t lost to Spurs in their last four fixtures at home. 19/20 saw a 1-0 win and the four game run includes two draws.
Overall Southampton have a decent record at home v Spurs, with the London side only winning 25% of matches in Southampton.
Last week’s xG says that Southampton should have scored at least one goal.
Sours got one point in three attempts against south coast clubs last season. The equal worst in the league. Although Southampton’s 1.17 points per game at home to London sides isn’t worth a full page ad in the paper either.
Why Spurs can win.
Spurs have a 64% winning record v Southampton on a Sunday. The Saints with a less holy 18%. Perhaps it is because Sunday is the special worship day for the Saints.
Spurs lead 6-2 in matches held in September.
Barely Interesting Stat:
If you calculate the 19/20 Premier League table from Jose Mourinho’s arrival at Spurs, Spurs would be fourth with 45 points from 26 matches and Southampton fifth with 44 points.
Spurs ans Southampton had the exact same number of shots, shots on targets, big chances created, goals scored and conceded, and points won last weekend.
We Say….
Southampton 1 Spurs 0
NEWCASTLE v BRIGHTON
MATCH STATS
Why Newcastle can win
Newcastle were third for chances created last weekend, fourth for key passes and equal second for shots.
Newcastle were undefeated against south coast teams in six matches last season – four wins two draws shared equally home and away.
Why Brighton can win.
Brighton actually had a better xG than Chelsea in Week 1.\
Brighton also topped the Big Chances Created stat last week with three.
Newcastle have never beaten Brighton in September.
Going back to 1991, Newcastle have won only once at home to Brighton in the last six attempts. The only win in that sequence is in Brighton’s first season in the Premier League.
Brighton have won the only league clash between these sides on a Sunday. And are undefeated in two cup games on a Sunday too.
Barely Interesting Stat:
There have been just four goals scored in total in the last six matches at Newcastle.
We Say….
Newcastle 1 Brighton 1
CHELSEA v LIVERPOOL
MATCH STATS
Why Chelsea can win
Chelsea have the player Liverpool should have got – Timo Werner – who looked OK in his first outing for Chelsea.
Liverpool’s record away to top six sides last season was their most underwhelming stat. Same v big six teams.
Liverpool did lose two of their six away trips to London last season, although only one of those teams remain in the Premier League.
Why Liverpool can win.
Mo Salah. At or around the top of many key stats last weekend. Touches, Dribbles, Chances Created, Key Passes.
Liverpool had 22 shots on goal last week, Chelsea had ten. Although Chelsea’s 50% on target rate was much better than Liverpool’s 27%.
Liverpool have lost only once in the last five league games at Chelsea.
Liverpool have won the last two fixtures on a Sunday.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Liverpool lead Chelsea 6-5 for games at Stamford Bridge since 2010 (+ three draws)
We Say….
Chelsea 1 Liverpool 1
LEICESTER v BURNLEY
MATCH STATS
Why Leicester can win
Leicester had a very good record v non big six teams at home last season, Burnley’s record away to top six sides wasn’t great.
Jamie Vardy was among the goals last weekend, and usually scores in runs.
xG agreed with the actual 3-0 scoreline for their game against West Brom last weekend. the 3-0 xG score was same as Liverpool’s. Though they were efficient, as they are well down on key passes and chances created.
Why Burnley can win.
They are extra refreshed with an extra week off. Or is that a negative for matchday fitness?
Burnley have won the only match between these sides on a Sunday.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Burnley haven’t won at Leicester since 2007 when Owen Coyle was manager. In the calendar year of 2007, Leicester had seven different managers/groups of caretaker managers.
We Say….
Leicester 1 Burnley 1
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