NRL Round 16 Betting Preview & Stats

NZ WARRIORS v NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS

Can the Warriors keep their finals hopes alive, it sure would be some kind of achievement, and a nice rugby league story. This game is being played in Tamworth as a reward for the country NSW town looking after the Warriors slightly better than the NRL. One wonders why more games couldn’t be played in the country. One also wonders if Warriors and Country music isn’t one of the big mismatches this weekend. Anyways, taking down the Knights this weekend will help as it drags them closer to the pack. The battle of the fullbacks should be decent entertainment at a minimum.

QUICK MATCH FACTS

• Newcastle hold a 65%-35% advantage in the H2H on a Saturday.
• The Warriors have lost their last three matches at home to NSW based sides.
• Newcastle’s recent win over the Roosters at Central Coast Stadium broke a run of five straight losses.
• Warriors only loss at Central Cost this season on a Saturday was a competitive 16-10 defeat to the Roosters.

• Both sides score more second half points and win more second halves, so taking the second half as highest scoring seems prudent.
• Three of the last four games between these sides at Newcastle have seen margins of 16 points or more. But both teams recent margins have been tight. For instance five of the last eight Knights games have seen a margin of 6 points or less and the last five Warriors games have been sorted by 8 points or less.
• Find the Tribet 8.5 where either side wins by 8 points or less.

• Newcastle centres have 5/11 last try scoring wins for Newcastle, and given the Knights score the last try almost twice as much as the Warriors, and Enari Tuala is in fine try scoring form, it is hard to go past Newcastle for last.
• Interchange players are not a bad option for either side to score last.
• Newcastle hold an 8-5 advantage over the Warriors for first try scored, and wingers lead  the way. But why not George Jennings for the Warriors this week.

THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI

Either Team to Win by 8.5 or less
Second Half – Highest Scoring Half
Enari Tuala – Score anytime second half
George Jennings – Score anytime first half

@ $75

CRONULLA SHARKS v NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS

Valentine Holmes is the big name in for the Cowboys, but Jason Taumalolo is the big name out, and given the stats and recent form, this could be an ugly day out for the Cowboys. The Sharks hold the hopes of a few distant finals hopefuls, and fans looking for a general interest in the top eight race, so North Queensland could do everyone a favour here, except for the Sharks and Scomo. Although, Scomo would know about sporting favours.

QUICK MATCH FACTS

• Cronulla have won the last four straight against the Cowboys and eight of the last ten.
• Coincidentally, Cronulla have also won their last four and eight of the last ten games v Cowboys on a Saturday.
• Cronulla hold the H2H on a Saturday by 72%-28%.
• At home, Cronulla have only lost twice on a Saturday since 1998. In 2011 and 2004.
• North Queensland have lost seven of their last eight on a Saturday. And ten of their last 11 on the road.
• Paul Green has won three more games than his temporary successor.
• Oh, and the Cowboys have lost eight in a row.

• With all the above stats, how can you take the Cowboys. And the -10.5 start may be worth a go for the Sharks too. Despite North Queensland being on the improve since Michael Morgan’s return. Cowboys have lost their last six away games (the only other away game was a win) by an average of 18 points, and the lowest losing margin was 11 points. So all more than 10.5 line the Sharks have to beat.
• North Queensland scored zero points last weekend, and average six points in their last four away games. The overall H2H total points average is 42, and Cronulla are hit and miss, but are averaging 0 points at home this season.

• Cronulla lead 9 – 5 for scoring the first try, and surprisingly led by prop Braden Hamlin-Uele.
• One fly in the ointment for first try scorer is the return of Valentine Holmes, and he is on the wing where he has historically done his best try scoring. Why not back him to annoy his former home fans first on Saturday.
• Neither Cowboys nor Sharks are prolific last try scorers, so the safe play is to choose one of the wingers.

THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI

Cronulla -10.5 start
Total Points Under 42.5
Valentine Holmes first Cowboys Try Scorer

@ $30

PENRITH PANTHERS v WESTS TIGERS

Two teams facing each other in the positions that they will likely finish in by season’s end. Penrith well on their way to finishing the regular season in first because they are the best side, who play the best football, and deserve to be first. Wests Tigers will finish 9^th because that’s what they do. Another chance for Ivan Cleary to blow kisses at his former bus patrons too.

QUICK MATCH FACTS

• Penrith haven’t lost at home this season, they haven’t lost at home since July 2019 v Canberra.
• They have only won three of their last six at home on a Saturday.
• Penrith have won their last seven home games v Sydney opposition.
• Panthers have won eight of the last ten clashes v Tigers. Those losses came at ANZ Stadium and Suncorp Stadium.
• Wests Tigers have won their only away game on a Saturday this season when beating Cronulla in May. Prior to that it was six straight losses and a previous win in 2016.

• Wests Tigers are on the move for betting, from $6.50 on Monday to $5.00 on Wednesday.
• H2H the total point for this match hasn’t cracked the 44.5 point mark on offer by betting companies.
• Tigers have averaged 20 points per game since July, although a large chunk of those points came against a Queensland Cup side.
• Penrith are only averaging 23 points at home this season despite doing a lot of winning, so take the under 44.5.

• Penrith have scored the first try in all but one game this season, which puts the Wests Tigers 8/15 in the shade. As per usual wingers top the list and Brent Naden is the man in form. Equal leading first try scorer for Penrith – Viliame Kikau – is not playing this weekend.
• Brian To’o returns this weekend, and he is the man for the first try.
• Penrith aren’t quite as dominant as the last try scorer, usually because they are winning all the time. Wests Tigers match the Panthers for last try scored – nine times – and the Tigers wingers have five of the nine. Although no player has done it more than once. Interchange players lead the way for the Panthers.
• So two suggestions are the Tigers’ Tommy Talau or Penrith’s Billy Burns.

THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI

Penrith to Win
Total Points Under 44.5
Brent Naden to score anytime
David Nofoaluma to score anytime
Brian To’o to score anytime First Half

@ $64