BULLDOGS v NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
The Warriors are just about out of the running for finals, but it would be a great rugby league story if they could. Although they could have done without their shirt sponsor issue with Telstra,. The Bulldogs have something to play for too, avoiding the wooden spoon, and you get the feeling that everyone except a bunch of fans of a certain Queensland based team are hoping the Bulldogs can do it.
QUICK MATCH FACTS
- The Bulldogs lead 13-2 H2H for games on a Sunday. They also lead 11-3 for day games.
- Warriors have played just 10 games at the Olympic Stadium since 2010. And won three times, once against the Bulldogs.
- Warriors have won just one of their last 12 Sunday matches.
- Warriors have a 13% win record away to Sydney teams since 2015.
- Bulldogs have lost their past four home games.
- This match has been the biggest mover for odds with the Bulldogs creeping in every day. A flood of money from anti-Broncos fans?
- The 2.5 start is a waste of time, so bet only for the win.
- Both teams tend to score more points in the second half, so taking the 2nd half highest score at $1.80 seems a good idea. Plus it is a good option to cheer for if nothing else is happening for your team.
- The total points at 43.5 is too hard to predict, who’d think a Bulldogs-Tigers game would produce nearly 60 points, so best avoided.
- No surprise that teams in the bottom half of the ladder don’t score the first or last try very often, both of these sides are in the bottom four for first and last try.
- Interchange players have scored some of New Zealand’s last tries so always fun to pick one for value.
- Wingers are usually a safe bet for first try scorer, but consider the forwards for this game with the regular try scorers out.
THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI
Bulldogs to win
Either side to win by 10.5 or less
Isaiah Papali’i to score anytime
Second half most total points
@ $47
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS v NORTH QUEENSLAND
One wonders how much seller’s remorse the Cowboys have over letting Kalyn Ponga go? Sure Lachlan Coote was a great player but Ponga was clearly the better bet. The Cowboys looked much better last week, and this should be a decent game to watch, and bet on.
- Newcastle have won two thirds of their home games v Cowboys.
- Newcastle have also won 75% of Sunday games H2H
- Newcastle have a 50% record on Sunday this season from eight games. The Cowboys have lost both of their games.
- Newcastle have won their last six home games v Qld opposition.
- Cowboys are 2/9 against NSW opposition this season.
- Cowboys have won only two games in the last 15 v NSW teams away from home.
- Next to no movement at all betting-wise on this game, with Newcastle remaining strong favourite all week. And hard to argue against either with Newcastle on nearly three times as many competition points.
- Take on the over 43.5 points with the overall points total at 43 points, and games going back to 2015 more often than not clearing that line, and both teams have recently been involved in some high scoring games.
- Both sides tend to score more points in the second, so what a way to end the rugby league week with a win in that market.
- Newcastle win a lot of second halves too. Out of form sides like the Cowboys do struggle in second halves.
- Since the Cowboys are improving but don’t really know how to win lately, the 9.5 start looks like a good option.
- North Queensland are in the bottom four for both scoring first and last, so either look to Newcastle for both, or take the improved Michael Morgan-led Cowboys on faith.
- Newcastle’s 9/14 is a decent strike rate for last try scorer, and for cheekiness suggest that Ponga is your man to score last.
- As for first try scorer, it is open, with wingers well under represented in this game compared to overall, so take a punt elsewhere for value.
THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI
North Qld +9.5 start
Total Points Over 45.5
Second half – highest scoring half
Kalyn Ponga to score anytime second half
@ $23
