Having completed the original version of this before Covid19 shut down the world, not much has changed really. Except for a worldwide pandemic that killed way too many people, ruined livelihoods and halted life in general. Especially sport and football. Most of this is still relevant, and improved as we fixed the errors that we didn’t check properly last time. So enjoy the revised version of our Premier League Week 30 Predictions and Preview.
Each week our preview includes just enough quick info and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner. Or to provide just enough barely interesting information leading into the big weekend of football.
And we’ve had plenty of time to sort these stats and predictions out. So no excuses.
If you enjoy loads of stats and graphs with some opinion, then you will enjoy our full Premier League Week 30 Predictions and Preview.
Premier League Week 30 Predictions
GAME BY GAME PREVIEW
Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 30. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…
Match H2H are for the League fixtures only, because who knows what teams play in cups these days.
Our barely interesting facts are just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions and cups. Or whatever suits the stat.
ASTON VILLA v SHEFFIELD UNITED
Wednesday 6pm – SKY
MATCH STATS
Why Aston Villa can win
Aston Villa have a great record against Sheffield Utd in the Premier League. Well, except for this season anyway. This season’s loss was the first in the top flight since 1991, when the EPL was Division One.
Jack Grealish is a game breaker against a team of great players.
Why Sheffield Utd can win.
Because Aston Villa lost 4-0 in the last Premier League played in March.
Aston Villa haven’t beaten the Blades at home since 2007 (1 loss 2 draws).
Aston Villa have conceded exactly two goals a game at this point. Sheffield United is less than one.
Sheffield United have lost just twice on the road this season. Although, Aston Villa have won more games at home (5 v 4)
Barely Interesting Stat:
Sheffield United have not beaten Aston Villa at Villa Park in any league competition since 1966 (8 losses 5 draws). Note that Sheffield United do have a decent record against Villa in Cups.
FPL “defender Lundstram has had more shots for the Blades than any other teammate.
Final Say:
Aston Villa 0 Sheffield Utd 1
IF we were a betting person:
Jack Grealish to have three or more shots on target @ $15.
MANCHESTER CITY v ARSENAL
Wednesday 8:!5pm – SKY
MATCH STATS
Why Manchester City can win
Man City have not lost to Arsenal at home since 2015.
Man City have won their last 11 Premier League games played on a Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday.
Only Norwich have won fewer games on the road this season than Arsenal (2).
Man City have twice the xG of Arsenal. Arsenal are even underperforming to theirs.
Why Arsenal can win
Inside information courtesy of former Man City assistant manager Mikel Arteta.
Arsenal are the only team not to lose a game this calendar year in the Premier League. And have conceded fewer goals than Man City. And scored as many goals in heir respective 8 games.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Man City last lost a midweek game at home in the league in 2014. 20 wins and 5 draws later.
Oh, and the last two games at Man City have ended in the same score 3-1 Man City.
Final Say:
Manchester City 3 Arsenal 1
If we were a betting person:
Time of first goal for match for Man City 1-10 minutes @ $3.50
NORWICH v SOUTHAMPTON
FRIDAY 6:00pm SKY
MATCH STATS
Why Norwich Can Win….
Norwich have a great recent record at home to Southampton.
Norwich beat no less than Leicester at their last home game.
It’s been 10 games since the home side has won this fixture.
Southampton haven’t scored at Carrow Road in their last three visits in the league.
Why Southampton Can Win….
Southampton have won the earlier game this season.
They are also undefeated in v Norwich in midweek.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Norwich have only lost once to Southampton at home in the Premier League.
10 years ago these teams were playing in the third tier and three years later were both in the Premier League. Southampton have remained constant.
Final Say:
Norwich 2 Southampton 1
If we were a betting person:
Norwich to win @ $3.10
SPURS v MAN UTD
FRIDAY 8:15pm – SKY
MATCH STATS
Why Spurs Can Win….
Because they beat Man City at home earlier in the season. So why not another Manchester team. Jose would love it.
Why Man Utd Can Win….
Because Jose Mourinho is manager of Spurs.
Man Utd are on the third best unbeaten streak, and were starting to look decent before the break.
Man Utd have a 100% record against teams with white kits.
Away sides have been much better in the resumed Bundesliga than before the break.
Utd have twice as many clean sheets.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Spurs have won 1/5 on a Friday, and Manchester United are unbeaten in three.
Final Say:
Spurs 0 Man Utd 2
If we were a betting person:
Under 2.5 Goals @ $1.88
WATFORD v LEICESTER
SATURDAY 12:30pm BT Sport
MATCH STATS
Why Watford Can Win….
They have won their last three home league matches against Leicester. All 2-1.
They also beat Liverpool last start at home.
Watford need to keep winning to stay ahead of relegation.
Leicester were quite poor in their last away trip to a bottom six side (Norwich 1 Leicester 0)
Why Leicester Can Win….
Jamie Vardy will probably never get another chance to get a golden boot, so will be super keen to score.
Leicester average 2.25 points per game against non Big Six sides this year. Watford average just 1.0 points per game against the top six.
Leicester average 2.5 points per game v London sides. Watford are at 1.14 against sides from the middle of England.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Not only have the last three league games at Watford ended up 2-1 to the Hornets, but the last three games at Leicester have ended Leicester 2 Watford 0.
Final Say:
Watford 1 Leicester 2
If we were a betting person:
Watford 2-1 @ $12 or Leicester 2-1 @ $9
BRIGHTON v ARSENAL
SATURDAY 3:00pm BT Sport
MATCH STATS
Why Brighton Can Win….
Because Arsenal have a poor record on the South Coast. See more below.
Arsenal haven’t beaten Brighton in their last four attempts.
Brighton’s record against red kits is slightly better than Arsenal’s against blue kits. Poor are pretty poor (0.80 points per game v 0.71)
Why Arsenal Can Win….
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last eight games and have won their last three.
Brighton haven’t won any of their last nine games.
Brighton do tend to be wasteful with shots. Their xG is higher than Arsenal, but the Gunners have scored eight goals more. Arsenal’s performance to xG is -2 (two goals better) Brighton’s is +7.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Arsenal have not beaten Brighton in Brighton in the league since 1981.
Final Say:
Brighton 0 Arsenal 1
If we were a betting person:
Both teams to score – No @ $2.00
WEST HAM v WOLVES
SATURDAY 5:30pm SKY
MATCH STATS
Why West Ham Can Win….
West Ham looked half decent in their most recent game at home – beating Southampton 3-1, who were one of the Premier League’s better away sides.
West Ham are still the best team for Shot on Target %
Why Wolves Can Win….
Wolves have the better record at West Ham.
Wolves have a much better record away this season (av 1.5pts) than West Ham do at home (0.9pts).
Barely Interesting Stat:
West Ham haven’t scored against Wolves in their last three meetings.
Final Say:
West Ham 0 Wolves 2
If we were a betting person:
Wolves to win @ $2.00
BOURNEMOUTH v CRYSTAL PALACE
SATURDAY 7:45pm BBC
MATCH STATS
Why Bournemouth Can Win….
Bournemouth have a great home record v Crystal Palace. See more below.
Bournemouth have lost only 3 / 30 games at home v Crystal Palace. Their last loss was in 1987.
Bournemouth are still fighting against relegation, while Crystal Palace are almost comfortable.
Why Crystal Palace Can Win….
They are on a 1-0 winning roll. Three in a row.
Crystal Palace have kept twice as many clean sheets.
Crystal Palace’s record against south coast sides (1.6 avg pts) is better than Bournemouth’s against London club (0.7pts)
Barely Interesting Stat:
The last four games on a Saturday have ended in a draw.
Final Say:
Bournemouth 0 Crystal Palace 0
If we were a betting person:
Under 2.5 Goals @ $1.66
NEWCASTLE v SHEFFIELD UTD
SUNDAY 2pm SKY
MATCH STATS
Why Newcastle Can Win….
Newcastle have already beaten the Blades this season. One of very few teams.
Newcastle have the best record at 3pm, which ios close enough to a 2pm kick off.
Newcastle won their last games against a side with red and white stripes.
Why Sheffield Utd Can Win….
Sheffield Utd have lost only once in their last four games at Newcastle.
Sheffield Utd are second in the league for goals conceded and goals conceded away. They aren’t too far behind Liverpool as well.
Which is handy because Newcastle are the worst scorers of goals at home this season. Less than one a game.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Newcastle head the record against teams with striped kits – 2.29 v 1.75 average points per game.
Final Say:
Newcastle 0 Sheffield Utd 1
If we were a betting person:
1st Match goal – Sheffield United second half @ $3.00
ASTON VILLA v CHELSEA
SUNDAY 4:15pm SKY
MATCH STATS
Why Aston Villa Can Win….
Aston Villa are the best team for xG from open play after the big six sides.
Why Chelsea Can Win….
Chelsea hold the better record for March, 3pm kick offs, Saturday games, and games at Aston Villa in the past 20 seasons.
Aston Villa have a poor recent record v Chelsea at home. Aston Villa have won one game of their last seven at home to Chelsea since 2010.
Chelsea average almost twice as many goals away as Aston Vila do at home. Chelsea also have the best away goals v home goals record in the league. Scored 22 at home v 29 away.
Chelsea have a super record against bottom six sides – average 2.6 per game.
Aston Villa have zero points v Top Six or Big Six sides.
Barely Interesting Stat:
The last Sunday game between these sides ended in a 8-0 win to Chelsea.
Final Say:
Aston Villa 0 Chelsea 3
If we were a betting person:
Chelsea -2.0 Handicap @ $5.00
EVERTON v LIVERPOOL
SUNDAY 8:00pm
MATCH STATS
Why Everton Can Win….
A few defeats and not so great wins over bottom three sides before the break, Liverpool have never been more beatable.
Why Liverpool Can Win….
Lots of reasons. Recent midweek are impressive v Everton.
Their recent overall record v Everton is impressive.
If Man City lose to Arsenal, Liverpool can win the title with a win in this game.
Everton haven’t beaten Liverpool after December in the past 20 seasons.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Liverpool have won the last five midweek clashes between these sides by a combined 16-3.
Final Say:
Everton 1 Liverpool 3
If we were a betting person:
Liverpool to win @ $1.53
MANCHESTER CITY v BURNLEY
MONDAY 8:00pm SKY
MATCH STATS
Why Man City Can Win….
Man City haven’t lost to Burnley at home in the past 20 seasons.
Man City average 2.43 goals per game at home this season. Burnley just 1.0 away.
Man City have scored exactly double the goals of Burnley. And had 241 more shots on goal.
Burnley have the lowest xG from open play in the league this season. Under 5.0, Man City’s figure is almost 28.
Man City were dominant v Burnley in their clash earlier in the season.
Why Burnley Can Win….
Burnley are on the second longest unbeaten run in the league right now. Seven games is just one behind Arsenal.
Burnley are undefeated in March v Man City in the past 20 seasons.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Man City have played Burnley four times at home in the two seasons prior to this season, they won all four with a combined return of 17-1. Probably the odds of Burnley winning this game.
Final Say:
Manchester City 3 Burnley 1
If we were a betting person:
Man City to win by exactly two goals @ $3.75
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