The FA Cup Fourth Round interruption has been enjoyed, and who’d think that Shrewsbury Town would hold the secret to avoiding defeat against Liverpool. To try and decipher similar mysteries, we offer up our Premier League Week 25 Predictions and Preview.
Each week our preview includes just enough quick info and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner. Or to provide just enough barely interesting information leading into the big weekend of football.
If you enjoy loads of stats and graphs with some opinion, then you will enjoy our full Premier League Week 25 Predictions and Preview.
Read More – Premier League Fixture Difficulty Ratings
Premier League Week 25 Predictions
GAME BY GAME PREVIEW
Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 25. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…
All stats are based on the last 20 years of League fixtures,except where stated. Last 6 matches are League fixtures only.
The barely interesting fact is just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions and cups.
LEICESTER v CHELSEA
SATURDAY 12:30pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Both of these teams have had a recent wobble, but remain in the top four, and deservedly so. Both teams also have injury concerns with their main strike weapons, and it is hard to think who will miss their forward more – Abraham at Chelsea or Vardy at Leicester. Fascinating that a Championship striker last season, and forward in his 30’s re leading the way this season. Making the 30M+ transfer of European hotshots seem expensive wastes.
Why Leicester Can Win….
Leicester have the second best shots on target this season at 39.05%, well ahead of Chelsea’s 34.5%. But surprisingly behind top dog West Ham.
Leicester have eight clean sheets to Chelsea’s five. And have four at home against their opponent’s one away from home.
Leicester are outperforming their xG by 8, Chelsea are under-performing theirs by 7.
Chelsea have scored zero points against top six sides (at time of playing) this season.
Leicester have not lost any of their past four games v Chelsea (3 draws – 1 win)
Leicester have the best FPL points per cost of all teams this season @ 10.2 per $M.
Why Chelsea Can Win….
Chelsea have the best away goals to overall goals scored in the Premier League this season. Their 25 in 12 away is third best, but the 60% of all goals scored is best.
Chelsea hold the overall last 20 season record v Leicester on Saturdays, 12:30pm kick off and at Leicester.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Chelsea and Leicester have had the easiest run this season in terms of opposition position when they have played them – Chelsea’s average opposition position is 13.0 and Leicester’s 11.8. Sometimes it is as important to be lucky as well as good.
Final Say:
Leicester 2 Chelsea 1
LIVERPOOL v SOUTHAMPTON
SATURDAY 3:00pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
After drawing with Shrewsbury Town in the FA Cup, perhaps there is the slightest glimmer of hope for Southampton here. Liverpool do have enough of their former players. Imagine if Southampton could have held onto Van Dijk, Mane and Lallana. Southampton are in decent form away, and this fixture tends to be a little more low scoring than others at Liverpool.
Why Liverpool Can Win….
Because they’ve only dropped two points in the league all season, and none at home.
Liverpool have won their last five in a row v Southampton.
Liverpool have only conceded three goals since December in all league games, and none in their last four games at home.
They also have a 100% winning record v Southampton in February.
Why Southampton Can Win….
Liverpool only have a 50%winning record at home to Southampton in the past 20 seasons.
Southampton are 3rd best for form since the start of December.
Southampton are on a winning streak of four wins in a row on the road.
Barely Interesting Stat:
According to the excellent Transfermarkt website – former Saints Sadio Mane and Virgil van Dijk’s combined value of 250M Euros is higher than the whole of Southampton at 227M.
Final Say:
Liverpool 1 Southampton 0
BOURNEMOUTH v ASTON VILLA
SATURDAY 3:00pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Both teams got the wins they needed against fellow relegation rivals last time out, and another three points will be very handy here. For Bournemouth it could means escaping the bottom three, and for Aston Villa it could put fie points between them and Bournemouth.
Why Bournemouth Can Win….
Aston Villa average just 0.7 points away this season, and have conceded the most goals away from home.
Why Aston Villa Can Win….
Aston Villa v Bottom 6 is 1.75 average points v 1.33 for Bournemouth
Aston Villa have more shots, key passes, and a better shots on target %.
Bournemouth have won just twice since Week 12, Aston Villa have won double that.
Villa have also lost just once in their six games, Bournemouth have lost four times.
Jack Grealish.
Barely Interesting Stat:
The away side have won all three games in the last 20 seasons.
Final Say:
Bournemouth 0 Aston Villa 2
NEWCASTLE v NORWICH
SATURDAY 3:00pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Newcastle are slowly edging away from the drop zone, a decent effort given their injuries. Norwich remain last, but aren’t playing too badly and got a vital win two games ago over Bournemouth. They are still six points from safety, but can’t be written off just yet.
Why Newcastle Can Win….
Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six league matches at home against Norwich.
Newcastle proved against Everton that 2-0 down well into injury time is no barrier to points.
Norwich have only scored six goals away this season.
Newcastle have twice the clean sheets as Norwich (6 v 3)
Why Norwich Can Win….
Norwich have the upper hand in this fixture on a Saturday – losing once in five matches on a Saturday.
Teemu Pukki is coming back to form. And who doesn’t love a Pukki party?
Newcastle are coming into the game after a second straight first leg draw in the FA Cup against a third tier side.
Newcastle average just a point a game v promoted sides.
Barely Interesting Stat:
This is the match with the most goals per game of this week’s fixtures – an average of four goals a game for the last 10 seasons. 28 goals have come from the last five league matches. The game before that was 0-0.
Newcastle have scored exactly the same amount of goals at home as away this season. But have conceded half as exactly half as many at home to away.
Final Say:
Newcastle 0 Norwich 1
WATFORD v EVERTON
SATURDAY 3:00pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Watford lost some momentum, and a place in safety following Aston Villa’s late winner in the last midweek round, so one wonders if it is a blip or beginning of the end. A little dramatic after one loss yes, but the margins are so tight at the bottom. Everton are slowly moving away from real danger, but recent draws against West Ham and Newcastle will have disappointed a little. Another four points would see them equal with Spurs in sixth. This game would have more fun if Marco Silva was still in charge of Everton.
Decent form between the sides too, Watford have lost one in seven games, Everton have lost once in nine.
Why Watford Can Win….
Watford have more clean sheets than Everton (8 v 6).
Watford have conceded just one goal in the last five home games.
Watford have won 50% of their home games v Everton.
Nigel Pearson has not lost to Everton in 2 games – although the record is 2 draws.
Why Everton Can Win….
Watford have 0 points against sides with blue kits this season.
Everton have a decent return of 1.9 average points v London sides.
Everton have lost just one 3pm kick off between these sides in the last seven games.
Barely Interesting Stat:
The home sides haven’t lost a game since 2007 – 7 home wins 3 draws since.
Final Say:
Watford 2 Everton 1
WEST HAM v BRIGHTON
SATURDAY 3:00pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Hard to believe West Ham have gotten themselves into enough trouble to be 17th at this stage of the season. Brighton have slowly drifted back to the bottom six since their season of 8th in week 11. A bad result could see either in the bottom six.
Why West Ham Can Win….
West Ham have the best Shots on Target % in the Premier League this season. Although West Ham have had the equal 5th least shots on goal.
West Ham have 2.0 points on average against bottom six sides, Brighton is much less at 0.5.
Why Brighton Can Win….
Brighton have won the only February game between these sides in the past ten seasons.
West Ham have not beaten Brighton in their recent history across three seasons in the Premier League and Championship – 3 wins and 2 draws.
Brighton have had 64 more shots on goal than West Ham.
Maupay is overall 6th for shots on goal this season with 71, West Ham’s Haller is their best in 27th with 47. Haller’s on Target % is better (42.5% v 38.0%)
West Ham have the second worst home record for overall and last six form.
Barely Interesting Stat:
West Ham were 5th in week 6 and 7 this season.
Final Say:
West Ham 1 Brighton 1
CRYSTAL PALACE v SHEFFIELD UTD
SATURDAY 3:00pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Two teams heading for the sweet, sweet midfield finish of 10th, for Palace it would be a good result, and surprisingly for the Blades 10th would be disappointing after the start to their new Premier League life. A real interesting clash for the neutrals and fans of Wilfried Zaha.
Why Crystal Palace Can Win….
Crystal Palace have a 100% at home to Sheffield Utd in the last 10 seasons.
Palace have a decent average points return against promoted sides – 1.8 per game.
Crystal Palace are undefeated in February against Sheffield Utd.
Why Sheffield Utd Can Win….
Crystal Palace have scored the fewest amount of goals at home this season – 10 in 12 games. Sheffield Utd have scored more goals away.
Sheffield Utd have also conceded the second fewest goals away from home.
Crystal Palace have won just once in their last nine.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Sheffield United have drawn every game in London this season 5 games – 5 draws. They have an average of 1.7 points in all games v London.
Final Say:
Crystal Palace 0 Sheffield Utd 1
MAN UTD v WOLVES
SATURDAY 5:30pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
A battle royale for 5th form awaits, but who knows what to expect from Man Utd. A recent big win over Tranmere in the FA Cup came after a 2-0 home defeat to Burnley. It seems Ole is only one more bad run from the boot. He’ll probably get it at season’s end anyway. Wolves continue to be Wolves, competitive in every game.
Why Man Utd Can Win….
Man Utd are unbeaten against Wolves in the Premier League at home.
Man Utd are undefeated and average 2.0 points per game against team with dog nicknames.
They have also had more shots with a better shots on target %.
Why Wolves Can Win….
Wolves are unbeaten in February against Man Utd in the past ten seasons.
Man Utd have not beaten Wolves since they returned to the EPL – two draws and one win.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Wolves last won at Old Trafford in 1980. But a lot of teams have broken their long Old Trafford droughts in the past few seasons.
Despite differing opinions on their seasons, Man Utd have been ahead of Wolves in the table for 6 / 24 weeks this season.
Final Say:
Man Utd 0 Wolves 2
BURNLEY v ARSENAL
SUNDAY 2:30pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
Seriously hard to believe that these two teams are on the same amount of points. For Burnley it is hard because they looked like real relegation fodder a few games ago, two wins in a row has improved that. Also hard to believe for Arsenal as a few more losses and they could be in a genuine battle for the bottom.
Why Burnley Can Win….
Arsenal have won only one in their last 11 away games.
Burnley have beaten two top five sides in the past two games.
Burnley have twice the clean sheets as Arsenal
Why Arsenal Can Win….
Burnley have just one draw in 11 games against Arsenal in the last ten seasons. The 10 other games are Arsenal wins. In the Premier League.
Burnley have just 0.38 average points against the big six clubs.
Arsenal have a 100% record against claret kits this season.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Burnley last beat Arsenal in the League Cup in 2008. In the league it is 1974 for the last win over Arsenal.
Final Say:
Burnley 1 Arsenal 1
SPURS v MAN CITY
SUNDAY 4:30pm
H2H STATS – Last 10/20 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS & STUFF
The premium games of the weekend, and if the relative form of Man City and Spurs isn’t enough, then Jose v Pep should do the rest.
Why Spurs Can Win….
Spurs are unbeaten against Man City in February in the last ten seasons.
Why Man City Can Win….
Man City have won the last two games at Spurs.
Man City have scored three times more points against London sides as Spurs have against teams from the North West.
Man City have won four of their last five, Spurs just one.
Spurs have lost their last two home games against big six clubs.
Barely Interesting Stat:
Pep has the upper hand in the battle against Mourinho – 22 Games – 11 Wins – 6 Draws – 5 Losses
Final Say:
Spurs 0 Man City 3
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