Football is coming thick and fast, just the way we like, so to throw more football guff into the mix, here is our Premier League Predictions Week 14 and preview.
Each week our preview includes just enough quick and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner. Plus an alternative tipping method based on some obscure football stat or something even less relevant.
This week after the triumphant return of Jose Mourinho, we have worked out each team’s average against Mourinho in the past ten seasons.
After the tips enjoy our full Premier League Predictions Week 14 and preview, with more stats and graphs than you’ll ever need.
Further Reading….
Stats Review of Gameweek 13
Week 14 Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Rating
A to Z of 2019-20 FPL Stats and Stuff
Premier League Predictions Week 14 2019-20 v Jose Mourinho
Average Points per Game listed.
Tipping Background
With Jose Mourinho returning, and winning on his return, we thought it was a great time to use him to determine Premier League winners.
We have all teams records against Joe Mourinho sides from the six seasons he was in charge from the last ten seasons. We then have a measure of average points per game against Jose,
2019-20 Premier League Predictions Week 14 – GAME BY GAME PREVIEW
Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 14. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…
All stats are based on the last 10 years of Premier Leagues fixtures,except where stated. Last 6 matches are League fixtures only. The graphic stats are all Premier League only, except where both teams played in the Championship.
The barely interesting fact is just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions.
NEWCASTLE v MANCHESTER CITY
SATURDAY 12:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS
Manchester City come into the game on the back of a disappointing draw at home to Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League, so will Newcastle wear the response or is there a little bit of rot setting in at City. Their last three Premier League fixtures haven’t been at their best either.
Newcastle don’t win this fixture very often – one win and one draw in 16 matches from last ten seasons – but they did win this fixture in Newcastle last season to the surprise of most. Man City aren’t that prolific at St James’ Park either, scoring just the solitary goals on each of the last three visits.
Meanwhile Newcastle have scored at least once in five of the last six clashes between these sides. A better rate than a lot of lower half teams.
Finally Newcastle’s home record is not too bad. Just one loss at home this season, and they have conceded the second fewest number of goals at home. Although, they have also scored the second lowest and Man City have scored 16 in six away matches this season.
Final Say:
Newcastle 1 Man City 2
Barely Interesting Stat:
This fixture hasn’t been played on a Saturday since 2012.
CHELSEA v WEST HAM
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS
West Ham manager Manuel Pellegrini is on the brink of the arse from West Ham, so playing Chelsea at Stamford Bridge won’t be that welcome. Especially given they haven’t beaten Chelsea there in the past seasons, nor beaten them in November at all. One wonders about the state of football managing when David Moyes appears to be the saviour.
This will be Chelsea’s seventh meeting with a bottom six side in 14 matches. They have won all six so far. And they still have the lowest average opposition table position figure, even after playing Man City last weekend.
A couple of stats that may help West Ham. Chelsea have the lowest home goals scored to all goals scored ratio in the Premier League this season at 32%. Speaking of percentages, West Ham have the highest Shots on Target in the Premier League @ 41.9%. Chelsea are fourth with 37.6%.
Final Say:
Chelsea 2 West Ham 0
Barely Interesting Stat:
Chelsea’s last six at home v West Ham follow a nice pattern (most recent game first) – W D W D W D, so time for a draw?
LIVERPOOL v BRIGHTON
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS
Liverpool are seemingly on track to a long awaited Premier League title, despite appearing to be not quite as good as last season. The stats say different though. After 13 games last season Liverpool had a record of 10 wins and 3 draws, which is not as good as this season (12W 1 D). They have also scored more goals (30 v 26) but conceded more than twice as many (11 v 6).
Sadio Mane has climbed up to equal first in FPL cost, and he has been on a hot streak, but his record against Brighton is not so great – 3 games – 0 goals or assists. But form beats history surely. Equal leader of FPL cost Mo Salah has 3 goals and 2 assists in 4 matches.
Brighton’s record at Liverpool won’t have many thinking upset, certainly not their record of one goal scored in four games in the Premier League, nor with their stat of having the worst Shots on Target % of any Premier League side this season. Liverpool, by the way are third with 37.9%.
However, Brighton have twice as many clean sheets than Liverpool, including two on the road.
Final Say:
Liverpool 3 Brighton 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Brighton have lost seven in a row to Liverpool, the last time they avoided defeat was on January 26th 1991, which is a nice coincidence considering there are two Australians in the current side.
SPURS v BOURNEMOUTH
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS
Spurs are getting back on track with their shiny new manager. A first away win for months came last weekend, and they turned around what looked like a disastrous home loss to Olympiakos in the Champions League. Good times for the time being.
For the good times to keep rolling they will have to break a sequence of no two wins in a row since April last season. We guess with no away wins they needed two home games in a row. They have won both of the 3pm kickoffs between these teams.
Not many stats or form in Bournemouth’s favour. One win in seven games is not the best current form coming into such a big game. Bournemouth are yet to win or score at Spurs in the Premier League. The total for and against is 13-0.
Final Say:
Spurs 4 Bournemouth 0
Barely Interesting Stat:
Last season’s win by Bournemouth was the first ever over Spurs in the league. And they have only scored three goals in the last eight games v Spurs.
BURNLEY v CRYSTAL PALACE
SATURDAY 3:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS
Burnley had a super win over Watford last weekend and are up to a magnificent 7th. Crystal Palace were competitive enough against Liverpool, although that is now three losses in a row and four losses in five games.
But Crystal Palace have played all of the top four sides so far this season, so perhaps 13th isn’t too bad, and they are only four points behind Wolves in 5th.
These two sides come into the game where Burnley have scored as many goals at home as Crystal Palace have conceded away. They have both conceded the same amount of goals overall, but Burnley are a huge nine goals in front for goals scored. Burnley are well out performing their xG too, where Crystal Palace are spot on.
Final Say:
Burnley 1 Crystal Palace 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Crystal Palace have won the last three games at Burnley that fell on a Saturday. And Burnley have beaten Crystal Palace 9-0 in a 1909 FA Cup replay, which was far cry from the draw that forced the replay.
SOUTHAMPTON v WATFORD
SATURDAY 5:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS
This is the second time in three matches that Watford are away in a game featuring second last and last. It worked out pretty good for Watford last time at Norwich.
Plenty of draws in this fixture though, and one point won’t help either side escape from the bottom three.
Watford haven’t lost this season when they have scored twice or more, so hopefully a returning Troy Deeney will mean more goals and a chance of turning their many shots into goals. And we are also hoping our big FPL shout Gerard Deulofeu loads up at the home of the worst home record.
There have been plenty of goals at St Mary’s, and most of them have gone to opposition.. Southampton have conceded 21 goals at home this season, which is more than the combined goals conceded home and away for 16 teams.
Final Say:
Southampton 1 Watford 4
Barely Interesting Stat:
Both games ended up 1-1 last season.
WOLVES v SHEFFIELD UNITED
SUNDAY 2:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS
Two teams defying pre season logic, and in Wolves case, early season logic. Somehow they are coping with the European adventure nicely now, but as late as Gameweek 6 they were in the bottom three. Now Wolves are on the second longest unbeaten streak in the Premier League with eight games.
They are both evenly matched too, with one point and one table position separating them, and a range of other stats highlighted above.
Sheffield United are yet to lose on the road this season, although the five draws out of six games is only one loss off looking bad. Interestingly, Wolves are the only other team aside from Liverpool and Sheffield United to lose less than two games away.
Wolves have only lost once at home too, so winning will be tough for Sheffield United, but it should be a great game for the neutrals.
Final Say:
Wolves 1 Sheffield United 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
These teams met in the third division not long ago in 2013-14, and Wolves won both games 2-0. Wolves have won the last three games on a Saturday between these sides.
NORWICH v ARSENAL
SUNDAY 2:00PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS
Two teams involved in surprising results last weekend. Norwich’s 2-0 win a pleasant surprise for their fans and hard working, underdog football fans. Arsenal were surprised at home by Southampton, and were lucky to draw 2-2 with a late goal.
Surprising to think these teams were just two points apart after five rounds. Which was the last time Norwich won a game, and scored more than one goal in a match.
Both of these teams have just two clean sheets, so goals look a real possibility. Perhaps time to blow up some balloons for a Pukki Party.
Final Say:
Norwich 2 Arsenal 1
Barely Interesting Stat:
Norwich have never beaten Arsenal on a Sunday
MANCHESTER UTD v ASTON VILLA
SUNDAY 4:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS
Despite the talk of a fairly average season so far for Man Utd, they are currently unbeaten in four at home, and are the only team to take points off Liverpool after their recent home match.
Aston Villa are making a decent go of their return to the Premier League, they did sneak ahead of Man Utd after GW9. And they have more clean sheets than Man Utd.
A worry for Aston Villa is they have not yet earned a point against any of the big six Premier League teams they have played.
Final Say:
Man Utd 0 Aston Villa 0
Barely Interesting Stat:
Aston Villa last beat Manchester United at Old Trafford ion 12 December 2009. This match serving as a 10 year anniversary.
LEICESTER v EVERTON
SUNDAY 4:30PM
H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons
2019-20 FORM COMPARISON
THOUGHTS
Leicester have won five games in a row now, and to put that in context, their biggest winning streak in their Premiership season was five wins in a row, something they managed just once. So this weekend gives them a chance to better a record from their magnificent premiership season. Is it a sign that they can win the Premiership?
Some of their stats compared with Liverpool show promise, like that Leicester have scored one more conceded three fewer goals. And it is arguable that Leicester are playing as good as Liverpool at the moment. The Foxes record against the big clubs is pretty average this season.
Everton have scored two goals in each of their last two away games. One leading to a win over Southampton, and other used up at Brighton in a loss.
Final Say:
Leicester 3 Everton 0
Barely Interesting Stat:
The away side has never won on a Sunday.
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