Premier League Week 11 Predictions – Gurgler v Atmosphere

Too much Premier League nowhere near enough? Well, welcome to our Premier League Predictions Week 11 and preview.

Each week our preview includes just enough quick and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner. Plus an alternative tipping method based on some obscure football stat or something even less relevant.

This week after the Arsenal v Xhaka episode, and the 9-0 home drubbing of Southampton by Leicester, we’re using the atmosphere of each team’s home ground as inspiration to pick winners. And we provide real tips of our own.

Follow the tips and enjoy our Premier League Predictions Week 11 and preview.

Further Reading….

Week 11 Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Rating

Our method of deciding which team has the best/worst fixtures for the next three weeks.

Premier League Predictions Week 11 2019-20 – v Atmosphere

Rank of Crowd Atmosphere listed.

TIPS BACKGROUND: On the back of the scenes of Arsenal fans jeering heir own player off the field, and reading an article which placed Arsenal 19th on crowd atmosphere, we thought it was time to use that measurement to pick winners. The thinking is the better the atmosphere rating, the happier the fans, and the greater likelihood of their team winning.

Of course this doesn’t take into account that half the teams are playing away, but these are just fun predictions, our real ones are following.

Source –https://talksport.com/football/580112/ranking-premier-league-atmosphere-home-stadium-worst-best/

2019-20 Premier League Predictions Week 11 – GAME BY GAME PREVIEW

Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 11. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…

All stats are based on the last 10 years of Premier Leagues fixtures,except where stated. Our Match Rating is out of 20, and is explained at the end. Last 5 matches are League fixtures only. The graphic stats are all Premier League only, except where both teams played in the Championship.

The barely interesting fact is just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions.

BOURNEMOUTH v MANCHESTER UTD

SATURDAY 12:30PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

A battle of two teams whose current league table position is a little flattering.

Man Utd won last weekend, and some of their players looked better, but Norwich weren’t great at all, but a win is a win. They are still underperforming against the xG, missing plenty of penalty goals doesn’t help.

Man Utd hold the upper hand in games against Bournemouth, with a 75% win record over the last 10 seasons, and unbeaten in November. Bournemouth do have the one win at home.

Bournemouth may be ninth, but recent form says they’re not going that well. No wins in four games, no goals in three, and unable to score against the two bottom sides Watford and Norwich who have conceded 45 goals between them in 10 games.

And they’ve lost their last three at home to Bournemouth.

Final Say:

Bournemouth 1 Manchester United 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Manchester United’s run of four straight wins is their current third best streak against current Premier Leagues – behind Watford (5) and Sheffield Utd (7).

BRIGHTON v NORWICH

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Two teams with different results last weekend, and seemingly different projections in the Premier League.

Brighton’s great last minute win last weekend showcased some of their great playing assets. Like Gross firing in specials, Burn and Webster at the back, and Maupay primed to take over from Pukki as the best value striker in the game.

It looks like the Pukki party’s balloons have deflated, no matter how hard he tries.

Norwich’s one goal from five matches away from home doesn’t bode well to get a first win from home. That goal funnily enough was against Liverpool.

Final Say:

Brighton 2 Norwich 0

Barely Interesting Stat:

A big win for Brighton last time they met on the south coast – 5-0 in the Championship.

ARSENAL v WOLVES

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Not a great few weeks in the league for Arsenal, but are still lying 5th, which is probably a indication of the quality of the rest of the Premier League teams than Arsenal themselves.

Wolves are recovering after an early season dump of form, probably Europa League related. They come into this game after more midweek action – the League Cup, so no rest then.

Arsenal have the statistics on their side – winning 100% of Saturday games in the last 10 seasons, and are undefeated at the 3pm kick off time and for games in November.

Final Say:

Arsenal 1 Wolves 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

The last two games between these two sides at Arsenal have ended 1-1, so we’ll pick another.

ASTON VILLA v LIVERPOOL

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Everything points towards a Liverpool win here.

Superior Head to Head record, magnificent away record at Aston Villa, a 6-0 win last time they met at Aston Villa, and an all star line up.

But Aston Villa’s record this season at home is not bad, with an average of 1.6 points and a positive goal difference.

Although, their record against big six sides is not good. As in, averaging 0.0 points so far this season.

Final Say:

Aston Villa 1 Liverpool 3

Barely Interesting Stat:

Lucky Liverpool are playing Aston Villa away from home. Their record at Aston Villa is five wins from the last five matches, where their home record against Villa is only one win from the last five matches.

MANCHESTER CITY v SOUTHAMPTON

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Just what Southampton needed in the League after a 9-0 flogging by Leicester, a trip to Manchester City. Although Man City didn’t quite thrash them in the midweek League Cup, so perhaps this match won’t be a pantsing. Or perhaps with Kevin de Bruyne and Raheem Sterling playing they could go for the record win.

Manchester City dominate all the stats, with Southampton sneaking in just the one win in the head to head comparison for the last 10 seasons. And their xG for this season is a staggering 33, and their actual goals scored is only one behind. 

These teams played at this ground last season in early November and Man City ended up 6-1 winners.

Could Man City attempt for the new record for a win just a week after Leicester equalled the record for biggest win.

At least Southampton’s away form is better than their home form.

Final Say:

Manchester City 7 Southampton 0

Barely Interesting Stat:

Southampton last won at Man City in 2004, which interestingly was the last of three straight wins at Man City for Southampton.

SHEFFIELD UTD v BURNLEY

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Sheffield United have done a good job as the best promoted team, a win against Arsenal last start at home shows they are the real deal to stay up this season. Burnley too, have been quietly impressive at times.

Sheffield United are the equal lowest scorers at home, with just three goals in five home matches, and they have a negative goal difference. But they do have two wins at home this season. And Burnley have no wins away from home also.

But Sheffield Utd haven’t won their last three at home to Burnley.

Not much in the way of head to head over the past 10 seasons, but surprisingly both games featured six goals.

Final Say:

Sheffield Utd 0 Burnley 0

Barely Interesting Stat:

Burnley beat Sheffield Utd in the Championship playoff in 2009 for their first taste of Premier League.

They last met in the top tier in 1975/76, where they shared the results.

WEST HAM v NEWCASTLE

SATURDAY 3:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Stats advantage is all over the place for this match.

West Ham have a decent 50% home record in the past 10 seasons at home to Newcastle, but they did lose 3-2 two seasons ago.

Newcastle have the slight advantage overall, and it is evenly spread over Saturdays and 3pm.

West Ham have won all the recent November games.

Interesting that Newcastle are right on their xG, and it is the lowest in the Premier League. Their points to expected points is three higher, mainly due to the unexpected win over Spurs.

Final Say:

West Ham 0 Newcastle 0

Barely Interesting Stat:

Prior to the gallant 1-0 loss to Chelsea, Newcastle had won on their previous two trips to the capital.

WATFORD v CHELSEA

SATURDAY 5:30PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Chelsea’s easy run continues with a match against last place. Chelsea’s average opposition position above of 13.8 is the largest of the season so far, meaning Chelsea have mathematically had the easiest run.

Their away record is decent, scoring and conceding more away. Their xG is only 0.1 away from Liverpool.

Watford may not have won yet, but three draws in a row is progress, and some of their stats show that they may get more competitive with a little more luck.

Final Say:

Watford 2 Chelsea 2

Barely Interesting Stat:

Chelsea have played teams in the bottom six at the time five times this season, for five wins.

CRYSTAL PALACE v LEICESTER

SUNDAY 2:00PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

A sleeper for the game of the weekend, two sides well outperforming expectations. Who’d think these sides would be 6th and 3rd at this stage.

Leicester were the talk of the footballing world after their 9-0 away win last Friday against Southampton. And it increased the gap between what xG expects them to have scored, and the actual goal tally. As is stands  Leicester are outperforming xG by 12 goals. And well in front of the 14 points expected.

The Foxes will find it hard to score against the league’s tightest home defence, coincidentally shared with Leicester. Sure, they have only scored four goals as well, which leaves them hanging out in the bottom five for home goals scored, but their record of two wins, two draws, and a Man City loss is more than enough to have them capable of a result against Leicester.

Crystal Palace do have a recent advantage over Leicester in the last four games, but Leicester are the November Kings in the past 10 seasons.

Final Say:

Crystal Palace 0 Leicester 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Crystal Palace have won their past four games against Leicester, including a 5-0 win at home two seasons ago, and a 4-1 win at Leicester last season.

EVERTON v SPURS

SUNDAY 4:30PM

H2H STATS – Last 10 Seasons

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

An interesting game for many reasons – managers under pressure, teams underperforming and in league positions well under their usual comfort zone, but still enough quality on the field to produce a decent game to end the weekend.

Everton don’t have a great recent record against Spurs, with the London side dominating all the last ten season stats.

Interesting is the xG, and performance against it. Everton way down, and Spurs similarly up.

Richarlison looks to be in decent form of late, so there is hope of a rare win. 

One wonders where Moises Kean is these days though.

Final Say:

Everton 0 Spurs 3

Barely Interesting Stat:

Everton last beat Spurs in 2012.

The last game between these sides ended up 2-2, prior to that Spurs won three games in a row with a combined for and against of 13-2. Plenty of goals for Son, Knae and Eriksen.