Premier League Predictions Week 10 2019-20 – Gurgler v Happiness

Anyone bored with the International breaks yet? Well, never fear as club football returns this week, as does our Premier League Predictions Week 10.

Each week our preview includes just enough quick and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner. Plus an alternative tipping method based on some obscure football stat or something even less relevant.

This week we are seeing what teams city/town is the happiest is the UK..

Enjoy the long Premier League Predictions Week 10 and preview.

Further Reading….

Week 10 Premier League Fixtures Difficulty Rating

Our method of deciding which team has the best/worst fixtures for the next three weeks.

Premier League Predictions Week 10 2019-20 – v Happiness

Happiness score out of ten is the score below.

TIPS BACKGROUND: There’s not much happiness around the world, so we thought it is the perfect time to try and use happiness as a way to pick Premier League winners. 

The higher the score out of ten, the happier the town, which flows through to team. One hopes. So the happier the team, the more likely to win.

Source – https://www.providentpersonalcredit.com/unbroken-britain-community-survey/

2019-20 Premier League Predictions Week 10 – GAME BY GAME PREVIEW

Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 10. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…

All stats are based on the last 10 years of Premier Leagues fixtures,except where stated. Our Match Rating is out of 20, and is explained at the end. Last 5 matches are League fixtures only. The graphic stats are all Premier League only, except where both teams played in the Championship.

The barely interesting fact is just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions.

SOUTHAMPTON v LEICESTER

FRIDAY 8:00pm

H2H STATS

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Leicester continue to overachieve in third, relative to big six expectations that is.

Look at the xG of these two sides – Southampton have scored five less goals than xG thinks, and Leicester have scored seven more goals.

Southampton’s dreadful record at home is matched and beaten by their results against Top Six sides – 0.3 points per game – 0.

Leicester meanwhile have been good against a side in the bottom six.

Final Say:

Southampton 1 Leicester 3

Barely Interesting Stat:

The home side has not won the last five matches in all comps between these sides

MANCHESTER CITY v ASTON VILLA

SATURDAY 12:30pm

H2H STATS

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Man City were surprised the last time they met a promoted side, catching Norwich on real good day. Talking of Norwich and Carrow Road, Aston Villa scored a 5-1 win a few weeks ago.

Wondered how good Man City are good at scoring….a quick look at the XG shows that even though they have scored 29 goals all up, they are only under xG by one point. Although, it should have been at least one more…eh Gabriel Jesus?

They did lose last time out at home to Wolves, but after their dismantling of Atalanta in the Champions League, that shouldn’t matter.

Looking at the Head to Head from the past 10 seasons, Man City haven’t lost at home to Aston Villa, and are almost perfect in October.

Final Say:

Man City 5 Aston Villa 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Last two matches H2H in all comps has ended 4-0 to Man City. And there have been 3+ total goals in the last seven Man City home games v Aston Villa. All but two are 4+.

WATFORD v BOURNEMOUTH

SATURDAY 3:00pm

H2H STATS

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Loads O draws and goals in this fixture, and sometimes at the same time. There have been 7 score draws in the last 11 matches between these sides. One for the Pools players then. If that still exists.

Watford were unlucky to get only point last weekend against Spurs, and perhaps it could be a turning point. They have had 24 more shots on goals than Bournemouth – their 120 is 7th highest. But their 28.3% on Target is low but surprisingly only 5th worst. (Sheffield Utd worst with 25.6%).

Bournemouth are looking like the classic solid midfield team. 0 Goal Difference overall and away, and average of 1.5 points away from home. Shame the goal fest that loomed last weekend against Norwich didn’t happen. This week for sure.

Final Say:

Watford 2 Bournemouth 2

Barely Interesting Stat:

For either home side in this fixture on a Saturday, it has been one loss, and six draws preceding that in all competitions.

WEST HAM v SHEFFIELD UTD

SATURDAY 3:00pm

H2H STATS

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Their performances last weekend were miles apart – Sheffield United upset Arsenal at home, while West Ham made the previously busted arse Everton look good again.

Sheffield United continue to prove they are EPL worthy, if not the most spectacular team to watch. Their shots are the third lowest and on target % is the worst.

Decent away record for the Blades too, one which includes trips to Chelsea, Bournemouth for draws and a win at Everton. In fact they haven’t lost away this season yet in four games.

Two losses in a row now for West Ham, and a third would drop them from their home of mid-table safety. They have also played much easier teams – based on our Avg Opposition Position score for the season. Although they have played Man City, who contributed 5 of their 7 home goals against.

Final Say:

West Ham 1 Sheffield Utd 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Going back to 1992 West Ham’s record at home to Sheffield United isn’t great. 1 Win 1 Loss 5 Draws in all comps.

BRIGHTON v EVERTON

SATURDAY 3:00pm

H2H STATS

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Not enough games over the past ten seasons to draw too many conclusions, but it seems advantage Everton based on the recent fixtures.

Unless you look at Everton’s form this season so far. One point and one goal from four attempts away from home is not going to scare Brighton who beat Tottenham 3-0 last home game.’

These two teams are in the bottom four for underperforming against the xG.

Final Say:

Brighton 2 Everton 0

Barely Interesting Stat:

Brighton have never beaten Everton in October in any comp.

BURNLEY v CHELSEA

SATURDAY 5:30pm

H2H STATS

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

A meeting of the young, almost free spirited Chelsea team against the tried and true experienced Burnley side. Chelsea may be scoring at better than two goals a game away, but they are facing a side who have conceded just three goals at home.

Interestingly, both teams have the same average points home and away respectively.

Chelsea hold the advantage in the last 10 seasons, and haven’t lost any of the five most recent matches in Burnley.

The worry is Burnley haven’t scored a point against Big 6 sides this seasons.

Chelsea have the third highest Shots on Target this season.

Final Say:

Burnley 1 Chelsea 3

Barely Interesting Stat:

More goals than you would think with Burnley involved, there have been 3+ goals in five of the last six games going back to 1982.

NEWCASTLE v WOLVES

SUNDAY 2:00pm

H2H STATS

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Newcastle are the lowest scoring team at home, and equal worst overall, but they did certainly put the brakes on Chelsea last start (with a 1-0 loss), and knocked off Man Utd the week before.

Their xG is the lowest in the Premier League by nearly four goals, but luckily they aren’t underperforming against it.

Both of these sides beat Manchester opposition in the same weekend in Week 8. Very unexpectedly in both cases.

Wolves have turned the corner it seems, but will have to see if the midweek Europa League gets in the way of that progress.

Both sides have the same average points at home and away respectively, which is mildly interesting.

Final Say:

Newcastle 0 Wolves 0

Barely Interesting Stat:

Five of the last eight matches between these sides in the Premier League have ended as draws.

NORWICH v MANCHESTER UNITED

SUNDAY 4:30pm

H2H STATS

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

As you’d expect Man Utd have the better of the stats between these sides, but an another Manchester team had even more credentials to win at Carrow Road earlier in the season too…

Looking at the table progress chart, aside from the big Week 1 win for Man Utd, these sides have mirrored each other’s progress.

Manchester United have lost their only previous game against a bottom six side this season. Bottom six side means table position at the time, not big six team.

Norwich (along with Watford) have conceded the most amount of goals this season so far. Luckily Man Utd have scored just two goals away from home this season.

Final Say:

Norwich 2 Man Utd 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

Last three fixtures between these sides at Norwich have ended 1-0. Man Utd won twice and Norwich once.

LIVERPOOL v SPURS

SUNDAY 4:30pm

H2H STATS

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Liverpool dropped their first points last weekend, not surprisingly at their recent bogey ground of Old Trafford. Back at home this weekend where their record is still 100%.

Despite being top of the table, Liverpool are a full 50+ Total FPL Points behind Manchester City.

Both teams won in midweek Champions League games, certainly a welcome return to form for Spurs.

Spurs have the second best pass completion rate in the Premier League this season. But that hasn’t helped them from underperforming this season so far.

Spurs haven’t won at Liverpool since 2011, their only win over the last seasons.

Liverpool may be wary of Spurs improvement in the H2H record on Sundays and in October. Although they have the late afternoon kick off covered.

Final Say:

Liverpool 1 Spurs 1

Barely Interesting Stat:

The Sunday record between these sides read 5 wins a piece and just one draw.

ARSENAL v CRYSTAL PALACE

SUNDAY 4:30pm

H2H STATS

2019-20 FORM COMPARISON

THOUGHTS

Arsenal proved just how Arsenal they can be by losing to Sheffield United on Monday night. Which is why they’ll come out and win this one easy.

Crystal Palace’s great winning run came to an end last weekend against Man City, and another game v a Big Six team will test their top six credentials.

Everything seems even enough to pick a draw. We won’t because we are jerks.

Final Say:

Arsenal 2 Crystal Palace 0

Barely Interesting Stat:

Crystal Palace won this fixture last year.