The NRL Finals are here, and in just four weeks the 2019 NRL Premiership will be decided, but can you decide it now based on a pile of statistics from previous seasons?
They say no side has won a premiership if they have conceded 50 points at some stage during a season, and they would be right. But surely there is more than just that statistic to find a winner or rule out a team.
For convenience, we have only gone back as far as 1998, for the NRL era and to save time compiling any more data.
So compiled here is a whole bunch of statistics that say why your team can or can’t win the 2019 NRL Premiership. Although the headline says a team can’t win the 2019 Premiership, it really means a team hasn’t done it yet.
Enjoy.
ALL BUT TWO PREMIERS SINCE 2001 HAVE HELD A TEAM SCORELESS AT SOME STAGE DURING THE SEASON
They say defense wins premierships, so why not investigate how many past premiers kept a team scoreless during their premiership season.
Going back to 1998, all but four have, and just two team haven’t since 1998.
Fast forward to 2019, there is only one team that have kept a side to nil. And they have done it three times….
WHO CAN WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Canberra
NO TEAM HAS WON THE TITLE SINCE 1998 AFTER FINISHING OUTSIDE THE TOP FOUR
No surprise that teams outside of the top four find it hard to win an NRL premiership, but to be honest, as they have been bettered by four other quality teams with usually a much better record.
For the record, here is the break down of the finishing positions to premierships since 1998.
| Finishing Pos. | Count |
| 1 | 8 |
| 2 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 |
WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Manly, Parramatta, Sharks, Broncos
NO PREMIERSHIP WINNING SIDE HAS LOST BY MORE THAN 28 POINTS DURING THE SEASON
Surprisingly, Melbourne Storm lost by 28 points in 1999 on their way to beating Jarryd Hayne in the Grand Final, and that was a low mark that has yet to be “beaten” by any premier.
Sadly for a few clubs in the 2019 NRL Finals series, that statistic rules them out, with three teams on the end of a 30 point or more flogging.
WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Parramatta, Brisbane, Sharks
Average worst losing margin – 20 points
Teams better than average – Manly – Souths – Canberra – Melbourne
NO PREMIER HAS LOST MORE THAN 10 REGULAR SEASON GAMES
Following on from Melbourne’s 2009 season losing margin, is the fact they lost 10 games that season. Another low point recorded.
The 10 loss maximum rules out the teams that finished in 7th and 8th.
WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Brisbane, Sharks
Average number of losses by Premiers – 7
Teams better than average – Melbourne
NO PREMIER HAS SCORED LESS THAN 20.7 POINTS PER GAME
Going back to 1998, we found that the team with the lowest points scored on average was the 2006 Broncos, who scored on average 20.7 points in their winning season.
Coincidentally, this stats rules out the 2019 Broncos team from winning, who have averaged just 18 points a game. It also knocks out Manly by 0.1 point per game.
WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Manly, Brisbane
Average points scored by Premier in season – 25.6
Teams better than average – Melbourne, Roosters
NO PREMIER HAS SCORED LESS THAN 32 COMPETITION POINTS
Going back to 1998, we found that the team with the lowest competition points was the Wests Tigers and Broncos back to back in 2005 and 2006.
Since and before to 1998, no premier has scored fewer competition points during the season.
That low mark of 32 points rules out a few sides from 2019. In fact all of the bottom four teams in the 2019 Finals Series.
WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Parramatta, Manly, Sharks, Brisbane
Average competition points scored by Premier in season – 37
Teams better than average – Melbourne
EVERY PREMIER OF THE LAST TEN SEASONS HAVE WON AT LEAST ONE GAME BY 30 POINTS OR MORE
You’d expect an eventual premier to hand out one hiding during the season, and the lowest of the last ten premiers was the Dragons in 2010 whose biggest win in their premiership season was 30 points. Every other premier has won by more.
So, out of the teams in the 2019 Finals series, who hasn’t won at least one game by 30 points or more?
WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Sharks, Brisbane
Average max win in premiership season- 43
Teams better than average – Melbourne, Roosters, Parramatta
EVERY PREMIER OF THE LAST TEN SEASONS HAVE A WINNING STREAK OF FIVE OR MORE
A winning streak can breed confidence within a team throughout the season, and from the past ten seasons, every team has managed at least a five game run in 2009, 2010, 2014 and last season.
Perhaps it is a testament of the competitiveness of the NRL why more teams haven’t strung together a streak of five, but as a stat, it rules out a few teams.
WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Canberra, Parramatta, Manly, Sharks, Brisbane.
13 / 21 GRAND FINAL WINNERS SINCE 1998 HAVE LOST THE PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER AGAINST THEIR GRAND FINAL OPPONENT
Almost two thirds of the Grand Final winners have lost the most recent match against the team they eventually beat in the Grand Final.
Of course you can’t deliver this stat for the Grand finalists yet, but it also means that recent record doesn’t count for everything.
| Final | Year | Previous Game | Result |
| Roosters 21 Melbourne 6 | 2018 | Roosters 8 Melbourne 9 | L |
| Melbourne 34 North Queensland 6 | 2017 | North Queensland 8 Melbourne 26 | W |
| Sharks 14 Melbourne 12 | 2016 | Melbourne 26 Sharks 6 | L |
| Brisbane 16 North Queensland 17 | 2015 | Brisbane 16 North Queensland 12 | L |
| South Sydney 30 Bulldogs 6 | 2014 | Bulldogs 14 South Sydney 21 | W |
| Roosters 26 Manly Warringah 18 | 2013 | Roosters 4 Manly Warringah 0 | W |
| Bulldogs 4 Melbourne 14 | 2012 | Bulldogs 20 Melbourne 4 | L |
| Manly Warringah 24 Warriors 10 | 2011 | Manly Warringah 20 Warriors 10 | W |
| St George Illawarra 32 Roosters 8 | 2010 | Roosters 12 St George Illawarra 19 | W |
| Melbourne 23 Parramatta 16 | 2009 | Parramatta 18 Melbourne 16 | L |
| Manly Warringah 40 Melbourne 0 | 2008 | Manly Warringah 10 Melbourne 16 | L |
| Melbourne 34 Manly Warringah 8 | 2007 | Manly Warringah 13 Melbourne 12 | L |
| Melbourne 8 Brisbane 15 | 2006 | Brisbane 12 Melbourne 18 | L |
| Wests Tigers 30 North Queensland 16 | 2005 | Wests Tigers 50 North Queensland 6 | W |
| Bulldogs 16 Roosters 13 | 2004 | Bulldogs 40 Roosters 12 | W |
| Penrith 18 Roosters 6 | 2003 | Penrith 24 Roosters 38 | L |
| Roosters 30 Warriors 8 | 2002 | Roosters 44 Warriors 0 | L |
| Newcastle 30 Parramatta 24 | 2001 | Parramatta 40 Newcastle 0 | L |
| Brisbane 14 Roosters 6 | 2000 | Roosters 28 Brisbane 0 | L |
| Melbourne 20 St George Illawarra 18 | 1999 | Melbourne 10 St George Illawarra 34 | L |
| Brisbane 38 Bulldogs 12 | 1998 | Brisbane 40 Bulldogs 12 | W |
