Premier League Predictions Week 4 2019-20 – Gurgler v Brexit

Too much Premier League is barely enough so here our Premier League Predictions Week 4.

Each week our preview includes just enough quick and barely interesting stats to help you decide a winner. Plus an alternative tipping method based on some obscure football stat or something even less relevant.

Following on from Boris Johnson based tips last weekend, this week’s alternative tipping method is based on Brexit.

Enjoy the long Premier League Predictions Week 4 and preview.

BLATANT PLUG – OTHER STUFF YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN

MATCH DIFFICULTY RATINGS – Week 4

OUR 2019-20 PREMIER SEASON PREDICTIONS

ADOPT AN EPL SIDE PERSONALITY QUIZ

FANTASY FOOTBALL BIG QUESTIONS

FANTASY FOOTBALL DIFFERENTIALS

Premier League Predictions Week 4 2019-20 – v Brexit

Highest Brexit result % in brackets.

Manchester Utd (Remain 57.7 to beat Southampton (Leave 53)

Norwich (Remain 56.2 ) to beat West Ham (Remain 52)

Leicester (Remain 51)  to beat Bournemouth (Leave 54.)

Brighton (Remain 68.6) to beat Manchester City (Remain 60)

Watford  (Leave 50.1)  to beat Newcastle (Remain 50.7) 

Sheffield Utd (Leave 51.0) to beat Chelsea (Remain 68.7)

Aston Villa (Leave 50.4) to beat Crystal Palace (Remain 54.3)

Burnley (Leave 66.6)  to beat Liverpool (Remain 58.2)  

Wolves (Leave 62.6) to beat Everton (Remain 58.2)

Spurs (Remain 75.6) to beat Arsenal (Remain 75.2)  

TIPS BACKGROUND: Some may ask how we base tips on the results of the Brexit election. Good question, here’s our explanation below.

For each team we have the Brexit result of their electorate from the big poll. We then take the winning result and the margin. For instance in the electorate Arsenal is, in the Remain vote won with 75% of the vote. In Burnley, the winner was Leave with 66.6%. So we take the higher of the two scores, so Remain wins. If they are both the same then that answer is obvious.

Since Remain means stay in the EU, that means not the UK, and the Brexit tip is the away team. If the Leave result is the winner it means they want to stay in the UK, which means home team gets the tip. 

So, it is needlessly complicated. Remain in EU means away side to win. Leave means leave Europe and the home side is the popular pick.

2019-20 Premier League Predictions Week 4 – GAME BY GAME PREVIEW

Here’s our match by match review and our own Premier League Predictions Week 4. With loads of stats as below. But keep in mind the following…

All stats are based on the last 10 years of Premier Leagues fixtures,except where stated. Our Match Rating is out of 20, and is explained at the end. Last 5 matches are Premier League fixtures only. The graphic stats are all Premier League only.

The barely interesting fact is just that, barely interesting. But takes in all competitions.

SOUTHAMPTON v MANCHESTER UTD

SATURDAY 12:30 pm

OUR MATCH RATING (out of 20)

No rivalry, but Utd’s loss last weekend, and trouble deciding on penalty takers makes this game a general point of interest. And the early kick off helps for other countries. Style and form is OK for both.

MATCH STATS

Not a great record at home to Man Utd, nor overall.

POINTS OF INTEREST

Who would take a penalty if Manchester United won one.

Southampton have conceded the fewest amount of fouls so far this season.

Going back to last season, Man Utd haven’t won on the road in their last five games.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

In all competitions, three of the last nine games between these sides has ended 3-2.

Southampton haven’t beaten Man Utd at Home since 2003.

OUR FINAL SAY

Southampton 1 Manchester Utd 1

BEST BET

Under 2.5 Goals @ $1.81

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

A cheapie from either side worth considering are Nathan Redmond and Daniel James. Southampton’s Redmond has turned into a decent point scorer since December last season, scoring 7 goals and 4 assists in the league, and more in the Cups. Daniel James was a star in the Championship for Swansea last season – and he scored more than half of his 18-19 goals and assists from March. Two goals in the Premier League in three games is an outstanding start.

If you were considering bringing in Paul Pogba – he has scored 0 goals/assists in five games v Southampton.

QUICK FPL STATS – Redmond – Price 6.4 Form 4.7  — James – Price 6.0 Form 4.3 

WEST HAM UTD v NORWICH CITY

SATURDAY 3:00 pm

OUR MATCH RATING (out of 20)

A real middle road of the games, except for two new to EPL strikers. We love the way Norwich play and West Ham’s unpredictability makes their style fun too.

MATCH STATS

A lot of draws for the Day / Kick-Off time, but Norwich’s recent record at West Ham is grape. But have yet to play them at the Olympic Stadium.

POINTS OF INTEREST

Pukki party. Deck the Haller while you’re at it.

Norwich are playing with a reckless abandon that should make them enjoyable to watch always. Their fans should be very happy at their start as a promoted side, despite only having three points. One point a game is enough to stay up these days anyway.

West Ham have  gone under the radar a little at the start of the season, and a drubbing by Man City to start the season wasn’t great. But four points since has them building nicely. Especially with goals from new signing Haller. Not forgetting they were the only team outside of Liverpool and Man City to win their last three games last season.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Norwich have not won at West Ham since 1989.

The last season where they crossed paths, both games ended up 2-2. On current form, that scoreline could very well be repeated.

OUR FINAL SAY

West Ham 2 Norwich 2

BEST BET

Both teams to score @ $1.40

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

Pukki v Haller provides a direct comparison between two of Fantasy Premier League’s top cheap forward options. Both were high scorers in their respective leagues last season. Pukki scored 29 Goals 10 Assists in 43 Games in the Championship, and has gone on to produce that form in the EPL, against Liverpool and Chelsea no less.

Haller scored a double last weekend, his first full game that wasn’t against Man City. Proving his 20 Goals & 12 Assists in 41 Games in the Bundesliga can translate. He is fifth in xG this season with 2.08 – which is not bad given he missed Week 2 and played Man City in Week 1.

Take one, or why not both.

QUICK FPL STATS – Pukki – Price 7.0 Form 11.7  — Haller – Price 7.4 Form 5.0

LEICESTER v BOURNEMOUTH

SATURDAY 3:00 pm

OUR MATCH RATING (out of 20)

A solid Saturday 3pm kick off with medium interest (depending on your Fantasy team), and decent style and form. 

MATCH STATS

A lot of draws between the two sides, and no away wins, in the Premier League era anyway.

POINTS OF INTEREST

Harvey Barnes’ rise to be the best Barnes in the Premier League. Quite ambitious at this point.

Talking of impressive goals, how about a third consecutive stunner from Harry Wilson.

If Leicester have ambitions of making the top four (and we think they are capable) then they must win these type of games.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Bournemouth have not won at Leicester since 1988.

OUR FINAL SAY

Leicester 3 Bournemouth 1

BEST BET

Leicester to win & Both teams to score @ $3.00

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

Although we are hanging onto Youri Tielemans for now, James Maddison impresses more every week, and could well be worth the extra bit of spend.

Harry Wilson has scored some magnificent goals, but can he maintain it? Leicester do give away a few fouls, and surely the new Wilson is the chief free kick taker now.

MANCHESTER CITY v BRIGHTON

SATURDAY 3:00 pm

OUR MATCH RATING (out of 20)

No rivalry, but plenty to admire and like about watching Man City play. And Brighton seem a much side to watch this season.

MATCH STATS

All Man City as you would think. Although the one Brighton goal from their last meeting caused some heart trouble for a little while last season.

POINTS OF INTEREST

A return to form for David Silva last weekend against Bournemouth just reminds you rich the Man City midfield is.

On a bad day this could be 6-0 or 7-0 for Man City. But Brighton are in much better shape this year.

A rare Saturday 3pm kick off for Man City. Looming International break helps.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Brighton haven’t beaten Man City since 1989.

OUR FINAL SAY

Man City 5 Brighton 0

BEST BET

Both Teams To Score & O/U 2.5 Goals – No & Over 2.5 @ $2.80

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

Presuming most have at least one Man City player in the midfield or forwards, who do you captain? And compare this game to Liverpool’s game v Burnley for more consideration.

Stay tuned for our FPL Fantasy Premier preview for more on captains…

NEWCASTLE v WATFORD

SATURDAY 3:00 pm

OUR MATCH RATING (out of 20)

The low interest game of the weekend, which you could flip and say it is the most interesting given the Watford manager could be sacked if they lose.

MATCH STATS

Watford have a decent record in Newcastle, and over Newcastle in general.

POINTS OF INTEREST

Will Javi Gracia keep his job.

Newcastle have were very ordinary at home in the first half of last season.

Big money signing Joelinton got on the score sheet last weekend. A good one in the EPL for expensive unproven Euro talent in the non top six sides.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Watford have won three of their last four in Newcastle, 2-0, 3-0, and 2-1 in all comps.

OUR FINAL SAY

Newcastle 0 Watford 2

BEST BET

Watford to win  @ $2.88

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

Hard to pick anyone here with confidence in your FPL side, but here goes.

Andre Gray has scored in the both of the last two Watford wins at Newcastle. He scored last weekend in their 3-1 loss to West Ham and costs just 5.9.

Forgotten Fantasy man from Everton – Gerard Deulofeu (cost 6.3) – has had as many shots this season as Kevin De Bruyne, Sergio Aguero and Anthony Martial.

CHELSEA v SHEFFIELD UTD

SATURDAY 3:00 pm

OUR MATCH RATING (out of 20)

The way Sheffield Utd have started and the changes at Chelsea mean this a solid medium interest interest game.

MATCH STATS

No head to head from the past 10 seasons, but these two sides have met in three previous season of the EPL in 06/07, 92/93, 93/94. The record is 3-3, Chelsea winning the last three matches.

POINTS OF INTEREST

Tammy Abraham burst into life last weekend against Norwich, and another promoted side awaits to pile on the goals.

Mason Mount too is flying the flag for ex Championship stars for Chelsea.

We continue to enjoy Sheffield Utd’s return to the Premier League, who look solid everywhere.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Frank Lampard himself scored in the last meeting between these sides in the Premier League.

OUR FINAL SAY

Chelsea 2 Sheffield Utd 1

BEST BET

Chelsea to win and Both teams to score @ $3.00 

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

Is John Lundstram this season’s outstanding cheapie. 19% are already on board the Blades defender. He has 17 points in three games this season and should have scored last weekend against Leicester except for a super saved from Schmeichel. At a cost of 4.2 it is almost a no brainer.

CRYSTAL PALACE v ASTON VILLA

SATURDAY 3:00 pm

OUR MATCH RATING (out of 20)

Bottom half ladder rivals in a bit of a Meh game.

MATCH STATS

Crystal Palace seem to hold the recent advantage over Aston Villa here. Although Villa were woeful in their last few seasons in the EPL.

POINTS OF INTEREST

Can Crystal Palace back up their surprise win at Man Utd last weekend. Their home record says worry.

Is this the game where Zaha breaks the shackles and does something for Crystal Palace. Although that European transfer window is still open.

The midfield combo of McGinn and Grealish is a point of interest for us.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Aston Villa last beat Crystal Palace on a Saturday in 1998.

Four of the last six games have ended 1-0.

OUR FINAL SAY

Crystal Palace 0 Aston Villa 0

BEST BET

Under 2.5 Goals @ $1.98

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

John McGinn is the Aston Villa midfielder of choice at a cost of 5.6 and leading the points tally for Villa with 15 points. But for 0.4 more there is Jack Grealish, who looked super last weekend, and can’t be too far away from a big bag O points. As it stand he is only  points behind now.

BURNLEY v LIVERPOOL

Saturday 5:30 pm

OUR MATCH RATING (out of 20)

A lot of interest in this match revolves around how great Liverpool are going. But not forgetting the sterling work from Ashley Barnes from Burnley. Liverpool look a touch more open at the back this season. Especially with Adrian in goal.

MATCH STATS

Not quite as Liverpool-heavy as one would expect. The game results on Saturdays and August are evenly spread.

POINTS OF INTEREST

Salah and Mane

Can Ashley Barnes keep scoring?

Burnley have a knack of scoring against Liverpool.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Only Crystal Palace (3) and Burnley (2) scored more than one goal in a match at Liverpool last season.

And, over the past three seasons, only Burnley (1)  have kept a clean sheet in the six games between these clubs.

OUR FINAL SAY

Burnley 1 Liverpool 2

BEST BET

Sadio Mane to score in 90 minutes and Liverpool to win the match @ $2.10

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

Surprisingly, the two wide Liverpool defenders don’t have very good stats against Burnley, with 0 assists or goals in 9 combined games against Burnley.

And Roberto Firmino has the best goals per game strike rate v Burnley of the big three. 3/3 (Salah 1/2, Mane 3/5)

EVERTON v WOLVES

Sunday 2:00pm

OUR MATCH RATING (out of 20)

A meeting between two sides battling for the upper midfield positions. Fair to say that neither side has been spectacular or bad so far this season.

MATCH STATS

Lots of draws and Everton wins of late, the stats on day of the week and kick off time points to sharing of the points.

POINTS OF INTEREST

We’re still waiting for Moises Kean to break out. As impatient as we are.

Wolves have looked good in patches, but haven’t put it all together yet.

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

There have been no goals in any Sunday fixtures between these clubs. Admittedly, there has only been one 0-0 draw played out.

OUR FINAL SAY

Everton 0 Wolves 0

BEST BET

Under 2.5 Goals @ $1.63

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

Jota needs to score more where it counts for Fantasy players. He has looked ordinary so far in the league, wasting some great goal scoring chances. Especially with a breakaway.

He did finish off the season well last year, so perhaps it is early nerves, but that excuse won’t stick for long.

ARSENAL v SPURS

Sunday 4:30pm

OUR MATCH RATING (out of 20)

The game that has just about anything.

MATCH STATS

Pretty even between the two. interestingly, September and 4:30pm kick off

POINTS OF INTEREST

North London Derby

Can Kane score again?

BARELY INTERESTING FACT

Spurs last won at Arsenal in 1999.

OUR FINAL SAY

Arsenal 2 Spurs 1

BEST BET

Arsenal to score the last goal @ $1.83

QUICK FPL FANTASY FOOTBALL TIP

Is Harry Kane still worth the money when there are some very cheap striking alternatives. He does have nine in the ten games against Spurs, and is a big time player. But his cost of 11.1 hurts when he’s not scoring, especially when there’s so many cheaper options. 

MORE STUFF

The match rating is our thoughts on how exciting a neutral should get about the game. We rank it by if it is a great rivalry, whether at least one of the teams are in good form, whether they play decent football or dross, and general interest. Whether the team has a star player, crazy manager, give away lots of red cards, or have a Rene Higuita style goalkeeper. We wish anyway. Each field is rated out of five and the grand total out of 20.