Can the 2019 PNG Kumuls beat Samoa? The Long PNG v Samoa Preview

Pacific rugby league gets its chance to shine this weekend, and the 2019 PNG Kumuls test v Samoa is a mouth watering clash we’ve been waiting half a season for.

The Kumuls are facing their biggest test in quite a while, with their squad minus some big names who have moved to the UK, and the Hunters in rebuilding mode. Samoa meanwhile have named their strongest squad in a while.

We have already provided a full and balanced preview of the game at Nothing But League, but for more of a PNG angle, we present our thoughts on whether the 2019 PNG Kumuls beat Samoa?

2019 PNG KUMULS – THE SQUAD

Is this the squad that can cause a Pacific Test upset? It doesn’t quite have the NRL experience of Samoa, but there’s still plenty to like.

Our thoughts on it are below.

 1 – Edene Gebbie (Wynnum Manly)
 2- Junior Rau (PNG Hunters)
 3 – Brendan Nima (PNG Hunters)
 4 – Xavier Coates (Brisbane Broncos)
 5 – Terry Wapi (PNG Hunters) 
 6 – Edwin Epape (Wynnum Manly) 
 7 – Kyle Laybutt (North Queensland Cowboys)
 8 – Enock Maki (PNG Hunters)
 9 – James Segeyaro (Brisbane Broncos)
10 – Luke Page (Burleigh Bears)
11 – Rhyse Martin (Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs)
12 – Nixon Putt (Norths Devils)
13 – Moses Meninga (PNG Hunters)

14 – Kurt Baptiste (North Queensland Cowboys)
15 – Zev John (Melbourne Storm)
16 – Rhadley Brawa (Wynnum Manly)
17 – Stanton Albert (PNG Hunters)

Thoughts

EDENE GEBBIE – moved from the PNG Hunters in the off season, and safe to say that the move has certainly worked out for Gebbie who has cemented his place at fullback in a Wynnum side that is going very well in the Intrust Super Cup. He is leading the competition is tackle breaks, and kick returns, but amazingly he leads the run metres of the Intrust Super Cup by over 530 to the next best. Hopefully he will be picked at fullback for the 2019 PNG Kumuls test v Samoa, without David Mead around, he is the most in form fullback PNG have. And you could argue that he is one of the most in-form players in the whole squad.

JUNIOR RAU – scored a couple of tries against Fiji last season in the Pacific test, and is a great finisher if provided the opportunity to shine. He is one of the few Hunters in the side for this test, where usually the bulk of the squad comes from the Intrust Super Cup side. A sign of progress for the players or Hunters slide?

JAMES SEGEYARO / KURT BAPTISTE – As ever the Kumuls have the hooker position covered nicely, with two quality NRL based players who not only provide quality service from dummy half, but give an extra spark in general. James Segeyaro in particular game be a real game changer, as proven in his limited time with the Broncos this season. Hooker is one the few positions that PNG match Samoa, although you’ll probably see either staying on the field as a forward utility.

NIXON PUTT – We think that Nixon Putt was the standout player for the Hunters and Kumuls last season, and that form earned him a place at the Norths Devils in the Intrust Super Cup, a place where you are only one step away from the Broncos. Putt has rewarded the Devils faith with some great performances this season, proving to be a real powerhouse in the second row. Something that his old side the Hunters miss badly. He has scored five tries for the Devils this year already. This is one player we back to stand out for the Kumuls against the NRL experience of the Samoan pack. Perhaps he might catch an NRL Club’s eye.

RHYSE MARTIN – Rhyse Martin finally got to prove late last season for the Bulldogs what a lot of people already knew, he is a super talent with many tricks and skills. The Bulldogs have been poor this year in the NRL, and for some reason it took a few weeks, and some great performances in the NSW Cup for Martin to be recalled. He was probably one of the first selected by the Kumuls, who will benefit from his playmaking skills, powerful hit ups and goal kicking. And having some NRL experience under the belt doesn’t hurt either.

LUKE PAGE – Luke Page has been a great warrior for PNG rugby league, and will no doubt be large again for the Kumuls. As part of a Burleigh squad that continues to do well in the Intrust Super Cup, he will bring the aggression and forward momentum that PNG will need early if they are going to trouble Samoa. There’s barely a better (and more frightening sight) than Luke Page fully fired up on the field.

ENOCK MAKI / STANTON ALBERT / MOSES MENINGA – the main pistons of the Hunters forward pack have been loyal servants to PNG rugby league for years now, as deserve to get another chance t represent the Kumuls. All three providing no-nonsense forward running up the middle, and each can be dangerous from to time. The big thing is whether they can reduce the errors as the NRL heavy pack if/when the Samoans applies pressure, and get an offload or two off to a hopefully lurking Edene Gebbie. Moses Meninga does lead the Intrust Super Cup for offloads this season with 28 in 13 games.

XAVIER COATES – the real wildcard in the team, with having played so little rugby league at the higher level it is hard to predict just how good he will go, but if he is a contracted Broncos player, and has been a match winner in the Under 20’s Origin clash against NSW earlier in the season, then he is most certainly worth the risk. Perhaps the Kumuls will have a player that can be a game changer in the three quarter line, a position they aren’t quite as outclassed as elsewhere.

THE REST – Edwin Epape, Rhadley Brawa, Terry Wapi, Zev John, Kyle Laybutt are the final pieces in the squad puzzle, and while Kyle Laybutt is a known quality half in the Intrust Super Cup, the others we have not seen a great deal of in 2019 to pass too much judgement. Edwin Epape, Rhadley Brawa, haven’t quite cracked the Wynnum first team yet, and Terry Wapi has showed promise for the Hunters, but it is very early days. Zev John has made just three starts off the bench for Redcliffe this season. 

Who’s missing?

JUSTIN OLAM / LACHLAN LAM – Both of these players were originally named in the squad, but sadly both are out. Losing these two is big loss for the Kumuls, as Olam has been in fine form as ever for the undefeated Sunshine Coast Falcons, and Lachlan Lam has showed much promise in his short Kumuls career,

ADEX WERA – an underrated contributor to the Hunters and Kumuls over the years, his experience and versatility in the three quarter line could have been quite useful to have.

ASE BOAS – an up and down season since returning from the UK has seen Ase Boas struggle to make the Hunters starting line up of late. Still, it is a surprise not to see the premiership winning Hunters captain in the Kumuls squad.

OTHER PNG HUNTERS – it is hard to justify including too many more PNG Hunters players when they have won only three times, and are not having the greatest season, with most players in and out of the squad from time to time this season.

UK PLAYERS – Unlikely that the UK based players would have been able to return for the one off clash, but the side could sure do with at leas Watson Boas, Stargroth Amean. They could also certainly do with Wellington Albert as a powerhouse in the middle, and David Mead brings class to a backline. With more games looming after the regular season is over, it is worth remembering after this Samoa result that there is more to come from the UK based players.

WILLIE MINOGA – No PNG is complete without him, but he is based in the UK also.

ALEX JOHNSTON – There always seems to be talk of the Rabbitohs number playing for PNG, but it hasn’t happened yet. It seems he isn’t that keen, and so perhaps PNG shouldn’t bother again, if they had been trying.

DIGICEL CUP PLAYERS? – Since the Kumuls are down on NRL experience, perhaps a place could have been found, in at least the extended squad for a few local players for the experience. Although you could argue that is what the PNG Hunters is for, and given their turnover in players this season, perhaps those players have already at least been given the chance with the Hunters.

2019 PNG KUMULS v SAMOA – THE FORM

Recent form in internationals is actually one area that the PNG Kumuls have it over the Samoan side. PNG have won seven of their last nine internationals, where Samoa haven’t won any of their last seven matches.

Going back to last year’s Pacific Tests – PNG Kumuls defeated a Fiji side 26-14 that featured Jarryd Hayne, Kevin Naiqama and Suliasi Vanivalu. Samoa lost 38-22 to a very strong Tongan side.

Looking even further back to the 2017 World Cup, PNG did very well, winning all their pool games with the advantage of playing in Port Moresby. While Samoa recorded just a draw in their three pool games. Samoa did play much harder opposition in Tonga, Fiji, but the draw against Scotland was quite underwhelming. The Kumuls opposition were weaker, but the Kumuls were also very impressive against all of them.

Both sides were knocked out by top three opposition in the first stage of the knockout. PNG 36-6 to England and Samoa 48-0 to Australia.

After an early onslaught in the Prime Minister’s XIII match last season, the Kumuls actually held on respectably against a mostly NRL strength side. So perhaps lacking NRL experience isn’t everything. But then again, the Kumuls side was stronger on paper last year than this season. Our thoughts on the 34-18 loss is here.

PNG did beat the second tier England Knights last off season 32-22, which drew the two game series 1-1.

Some could argue that PNG’s recent record is better because Samoa are playing better opposition, and while that is true, the Kumuls have definitely made progress, and have much less NRL experience to choose from. 

FORM FROM 2013 WORLD CUP ONWARDS

With thanks to the great website Rugby League Project

THE OPPOSITION – SAMOA

In contrast to the Kumuls, Samoa have named a very strong side full of current NRL talent. Led up front by the recent recruited Martin Taupau, and in the halves by Anthony Milford. Those two big names aside, the rest of the team features some exciting NRL regulars. 

 1 – Jamayne Isaako (Brisbane Broncos)
 2 – Jorge Taufua (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles)
 3 – Hymel Hunt (Newcastle Knights)
 4 – Marion Seve (Melbourne Storm)
 5 – David Nofoaluma (Wests Tigers)
 6 – Chanel Harris-Tavita (New Zealand Warriors)
 7 – Anthony Milford (c) (Brisbane Broncos),
 8 – Junior Paulo (Parramatta Eels)
 9 – Jarome Luai (Penrith Panthers)
10 – James Gavet (Newcastle Knights)
11 – Raymond Faitala-Mariner (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs)
12 – Jaydn Su’A (Brisbane Broncos)
13 – Martin Taupau (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles)

14 – Mason Lino (Newcastle Knights),
15 – Michael Chee Kam (Wests Tigers)
16 – Herman Ese’ese (Newcastle Knights)
17 – Josh Aloiai (Wests Tigers)

2019 PNG KUMULS v SAMOA – THE CHANCES

Of course one look at the two sides and you’ll see a gulf in NRL experience, but does that always translate into wins in these Pacific Tests? No is the resounding answer from the Kumuls win over Fiji last year, but Samoa’s team for this game looks stronger, and arguably the Kumuls team is weaker than last year.

To do our best at a comparison, we have broken each position down in a head to head. And give our slightly biased opinion.

FULLBACK – KUMULS – Surely an NRL star outranks a ISC player. But we say look at the current form, with Gebbie tearing up the field, and Isaako not as great in an underwhelming Broncos side. Nerves in a pressure game is the only worry for Gebbie.

THREE QUARTERS – SAMOA – With a fit Justin Olam the Kumuls would have looked a lot stronger, and we would have given it to them too, especially with bright prospect Xavier Coates alongside, but you’d have to give this to Samoa. But not by too much. Jorge Taufua is great, but only coming back from injury, and the two centres are only just now cementing their places in regular NRL. And David Nofoaluma has also only made three NRL appearance for the Tigers this season. But they have experience, against Coates who has played an Under 20’s Origin and a handful of ISC games. Terry Wapi is only just starting out with the Hunters too.

HALVES – SAMOA – This one is a no contest. The presence of Anthony Milford is enough to swing the entire game let alone win the battle of the halves.

PROPS – SAMOA – Enock Maki is a great PNG servant, and Luke Page is a rampaging bull at his best, but Junior Paulo at his best gives the edge to Samoa, and James Gavet has been a part of a winning Newcastle side of late. Samoa on paper, but some early Luke Page fireworks could turn that.

HOOKER – KUMULS – This is one position where the Kumuls definitely have the Samoans covered. In James Segeyaro they have a game breaker in the shape of Milford, if not quite at his level, and Kurt Baptiste is a very underrate hooker, who has made a decent impact at the Cowboys this season when given the chance. Samoa’s Jarome Luai is great too, but we presume Mason Lino will be the back up, and as a pair Kumuls are ahead.

SECOND ROW – KUMULS – Another controversial selection, but you could argue that Rhyse Martin is going better than Raymond Faitala-Mariner, and Jaydn Su’A may have played 8 times for the Broncos this year, but for us Nixon Putt is the man. He will hopefully put on a show on Saturday night to increase his NRL chances.

LOCK – SAMOA – Martin Taupau is one of the NRL’s form forwards, and would probably win a head to head against anyone. No offence to Moses Meninga.

2019 PNG KUMULS v SAMOA – THE PREDICTION

As much as we have tried to talk the Kumuls up through this lengthy preview, we still just can’t see them beating Samoa on Saturday night. A second look leads us to think they could possibly cover the 16.5 start, and maybe not.

The key will be the start. In too many big games for both the Kumuls and Hunters, they appear nervous, and as a result are a few tries down before they know. Look at the Hunters 2017 Grand Final win, they looked frozen early and the Sunshine Coast scored two early. Eventually they got back into game and got their historic victory.

If they can stay within 10 points for the first 20 minutes then a platform could be laid for challenging the Samoans.

Unlikely it is anything other than a Samoa win sadly.

THE ODDS

H2H

PNG KUMULS $5.75

SAMOA $1.13

POINTS START

Kumuls +16.5 @ $1.90 Samoa -16.5 @ $1.90

TRY SCORERS 

There are the usual first/last/anytime try scoring options. Plus players to score multiple tries. Here’s a few of our selections for the game…

ANTHONY MILFORD (Anytime) $2.63

JUNIOR RAU (Anytime) $3.20

NIXON PUTT (Anytime) $7.00

JORGE TAUFAU to score 2+ Tries $4.50