State of Origin 1 has been decided, with Queensland taking the spoils, but after all the excitement it is now back to the weekly slog along with our Alternative NRL Round 13 Predictions.
Just a mere two days after the big shindig at Suncorp Stadium, the NRL continues, and starts off with Souths v Newcastle which will no doubt see none of the origin stars start. And so starts the NRL during Origin.
The sooner all three games are standalone, so the weekly competition doesn’t suck for two months the better. A full rant on that is coming soon.
For now, our Alternative NRL Round 13 predictions and preview awaits.
NRL Round 13 PREDICTIONS – GURGLER PREDICTIONS
SOUTH SYDNEY to beat Newcastle
CANBERRA to beat Wests Tigers
MELBOURNE to beat NZ Warriors
PARRAMATTA to beat Cronulla
MANLY to beat Cowboys
BRONCOS to beat Titans
ROOSTERS to beat Penirth
DRAGONS to beat Bulldogs
TIPPING PROGRESS – 53/92
— Last Week 1/4
BEST BET PROGRESS – 46/92
$1 Season Earnings $93.97 (from $1 bet on all tips)
— Last Week 2/4 — $3.52
NRL Round 13 PREDICTIONS – OPPONENT PREDICTIONS – RECORD AFTER STATE OF ORIGIN GAME 1
NEWCASTLE (41%) to beat South Sydney (38%)
WESTS TIGERS (44%) to beat Canberra (41%)
MELBOURNE (71%) to beat NZ Warriors (47%)
PARRAMATTA (63%) to beat Cronulla (33%)
COWBOYS (42%) to beat Manly (41%)
BRONCOS (55%) to beat Titans (36%)
ROOSTERS (67%) to beat Penrith (53%)
DRAGONS (56%) to beat Bulldogs (44%)
BACKGROUND FOR TIPS – Since we are just coming down from the high of State of Origin Game 1, we thought it would be interesting to see how teams themselves go after the first Origin match. The team with the better post Origin 1 record since 1998 gets the tip. The full list since 1998 is below.
| Row Labels | Win% |
| Adelaide | 100% |
| North Sydney | 100% |
| St George | 100% |
| Melbourne | 71% |
| Roosters | 67% |
| Parramatta | 63% |
| St George Illawarra | 56% |
| Brisbane | 55% |
| Penrith | 53% |
| Balmain | 50% |
| Warriors | 47% |
| Bulldogs | 44% |
| Wests Tigers | 44% |
| North Queensland | 42% |
| Canberra | 41% |
| Manly Warringah | 41% |
| Newcastle | 41% |
| South Sydney | 38% |
| Gold Coast | 36% |
| Sharks | 33% |
| Illawarra | 0% |
| Northern Eagles | 0% |
| Western Suburbs | 0% |
2019 OPPOSITION TIPPING PROGRESS – 52/92
Week 1 – First Round Form – 5/8
Week 2 – Best Supported Club in 2018 – 5/8
Week 3 – Club Memberships – 3/8
Week 4 – April Fool’s Day – 3/8
Week 5 – NFL Teams – 4/8
Week 6 – Full Moon – 6/8
Week 7 – Anzac Day – 4/8
Week 8 – NRL Supporters – 5/8
Week 9 – Suncorp Stadium – 5/8
Week 10 – Game of Thrones – 5/8
Week 11 – Election Results – 6/8
Week 12 – Split Rounds – 1/4
NRL Round 13 PREDICTIONS PREVIEW – MATCH BY MATCH THOUGHTS
Here is our short game by game preview for the big weekend ahead. We couldn’t offer up our NRL ROUND 13 predictions without explaining ourselves a little further.
FRI 6:00pm – SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS v NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Head to Head since 1998 – South Sydney 14 Newcastle 13
Last Season: Newcastle 18 South Sydney 36
BARELY INTERESTING FACT
South Sydney have won the last seven home games against the Knights. The last three by an average margin of 43 points.
SUMMARY
Newcastle arrive into the game on Friday on the back of five straight wins which has catapulted them into the top four, their last performance against the Roosters their best for the season. Souths suffered a rare loss to Parramatta last start, and could feel the pain of Origin again.
MAJOR TEAM NEWS?
Adam Reynolds is out for Souths, as is Cody Walker, so the fill in halves from last week – Connor Tracey and Adam Doueihi get another chance to shine. We thought Connor Tracey looked pretty good. The man who was never coming to the Rabbitohs – James Roberts – is named at centre for the Rabbitohs. And Sam Burgess plays his last game for a while as surgery awaits.
Ponga is out, and Klemmer may follow. And who knows, maybe Gagai, Murray or Cook will also be withdrawn.
Good game to pick less than 48 hours after Origin kick off. NRL draw at its best again. Sure you can’t pick which team has how many origin players, but you could easily presume this game would supply at least four players as far back as after last year’s Origin series..
ONE REASON TO WATCH
James Roberts is enough of a reason to tune in for the neutral. Let’s see if the Broncos got that call right.
James Roberts to score anytime @ $2.20
FRI 7:55pm – WESTS TIGERS v CANBERRA RAIDERS
Head to Head since 1998 – Wests Tigers 19 Canberra 16
Last Season: Canberra 20 Wests Tigers 22 — Wests Tigers 12 Canberra 48
BARELY INTERESTING FACT
There has only been one game between these sides on a Friday since 1998. Wests Tigers got the win that night 26-24.
SUMMARY
Wests Tigers try out the new Parramatta stadium for their home fixture, hopefully it works out a lot better than their visit against Parramatta earlier in the season where they lost 51-6. The Tigers hard graft this season has them just outside the top eight. Canberra meanwhile got back to winning ways last weekend v Canterbury after a run of three straight losses to Souths, Roosters and Cowboys.
MAJOR TEAM NEWS?
More rested Origin players looming. Moses Mbye probably won’t play, but that’s OK because it means Corey Thompson moves back to fullback. In happier news it looks like Chris Lawrence will get a run this weekend.
Canberra have the advantage of lots of English players who won’t feature in Origin. But they too have to work around in the post Origin round. Nick Cotric will be out, but all good as the promising Sebastian Kris gets another go. And who knows if Wighton or Papalii will play either.
ONE REASON TO WATCH
The UK connection make a game interesting, but we’ll always plump for an interesting fullback battle between Corey Thompson and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad – who must be close to the new recruit of the year for any club.
Total Match Points Under 36.5 @ $1.90
SAT 3:00pm – NZ WARRIORS v MELBOURNE STORM
Head to Head since 1998 – Melbourne 27 New Zealand 18
This Season: Melbourne 13 Warriors 12
BARELY INTERESTING FACT
The Warriors have won four of the past five Saturday games between these sides. But Melbourne have won the last three games away in New Zealand on all days.
SUMMARY
Competition leaders Melbourne face the inconsistent Warriors in New Zealand. A nice present from the NRL for a side usually heavy with Origin representation against a team with historically very little. The Storm were very lucky to beat the Warriors earlier this season on Anzac Day, but who could trust the Warriors to win when they should.
MAJOR TEAM NEWS?
Who knows how many of the Storm’s Origin players will back up. A few late changes will mean that PNG’s Justin Olam will get another chance to impress. That test match is not far away.
ONE REASON TO WATCH
Warriors-Storm games are usually tight affairs or a blowout to the Storm. Another reason is hopefully Ryan Papenhuyzen getting plenty of game time after his initial moments as an NRL player.
Either team by 8 or less @ $1.91
SAT 5:30pm – CRONULLA SHARKS v PARRAMATTA EELS
Head to Head since 1998 – Sharks 17 Parramatta 16
This Season: Parramatta 24 Sharks 12
BARELY INTERESTING FACT
Sharks have won the last four Saturday evening kick off games at home v Parramatta.
SUMMARY
An all Sydney affair between two sides in the bottom half of the top eight. Sharks look destined to finish around where they are now. Parramatta are too hot and cold to predict over that long a period. They were good n patches against Souths last weekend.
MAJOR TEAM NEWS?
Parramatta could have had a few missing to Origin, but didn’t but also don’t have to worry about Origin fatigue. Exciting firebrand lock Nathan Brown could return for the Eels. No major changes for Cronulla, who also named Wade Graham and Shaun Johnson in the reserves, but both will likely not play.
ONE REASON TO WATCH
Eels wingers Maika Sivo and Blake Ferguson are entertaining for different reasons.
Parramatta to win @ $2.55
SAT 7:30pm – NORTH QLD COWBOYS v MANLY SEA EAGLES
Head to Head since 1998 – Manly Warringah 14 North Queensland 13
Last Season: Manly Warringah 12 North Queensland 26
BARELY INTERESTING FACT
Manly have won more than half of the Saturday games between these two sides.
SUMMARY
Three wins in a row for the Cowboys has them in the midfeild pack of eight teams on 12 or 14 points. That pack includes Manly, so this is a another big game for the midfield. Both sides have had their injury worries in 2019.
MAJOR TEAM NEWS?
Tom Trbojevic is the big team news, as he returns to fullback for Manly. Also at fullback is Michael Morgan, who few can deny his excellent versatility, but to shift your best playmaker to fullback to accommodate a prop and rookie in the halves doesn’t quite make sense. Especially with an arsenal of good fullbacks in their Intrust Super Cup feeder teams.
In saying that, Michael Morgan might not play at all, along with the other Origin players.
ONE REASON TO WATCH
The return of Tom Trbojevic should counter the probable Origin exits. And Jason Taumalolo is getting back to his best after injury.
Manly +6.5 start @ $1.53
SUN 2:00pm – BRISBANE BRONCOS v GOLD COAST TITANS
Head to Head since 1998 – Brisbane 21 Gold Coast 6
Last Season: Brisbane 14 Gold Coast 26 — Gold Coast 0 Brisbane 34
BARELY INTERESTING FACT
Broncos have won the last four games on the Gold Coast. The last two by 54-0 and 34-0.
SUMMARY
Three in a row for the Broncos takes them to 9th, and the tight midfield pack where every win matters. Thankfully their Origin contributions reduce each season. Titans are off the bottom on points difference only, and it is not a happy place after their 6-4 loss to the Cowboys last weekend. Ash Taylor has been given time way from the game,.
MAJOR TEAM NEWS?
Andrew McCullough returns for the Broncos, but just on the bench for now, giving the excellent Jake Turpin another start. Joe Ofahengaue is out after his cut knee in Origin. Ryley Jacks replaces Ash Taylor at halfback, and he has been in good form leading the Tweed Heads Seagulls up the Intrust Super Cup ladder.
ONE REASON TO WATCH
Sunday afternoon football at Suncorp.
Broncos 13+ @ $2.40
SUN 4:05pm – PENRITH PANTHERS v SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Head to Head since 1998 – Penrith 19 Roosters 17
Last Season: Roosters 32 Panthers 6
BARELY INTERESTING FACT
Penrith have scored 28 pints in their last two home games on a Sunday to the Roosters, and won them both.
SUMMARY
After being embarrassed by the Warriors at home, Penrith have now gone on a two game winning streak, and meet the Roosters who are flying as high as earlier in the season, and will have their post Origin worries. Especially Latrell Mitchell, who seems to be game 1’s scapegoat. Thankfully for Queensland he left his club form in Sydney. It’s all about beating the Roosters in the first half, but Penrith aren’t the greatest first half side.
MAJOR TEAM NEWS?
All about whether the Origin players named will play. You would expect at least half to drop out. The Panthers losing Nathan Cleary will be the biggest loss for either side.
ONE REASON TO WATCH
We enjoy watching Viliame Kikau and Frank Winterstein anytime.
Roosters to win @ $1.44
MON 4:00pm – CANTERBURY BULLDOGS v ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Head to Head since 1998 – Bulldogs 24 St George 11
This Season: St George Illawarra 40 Bulldogs 4
BARELY INTERESTING FACT
Bulldogs are leading 3-1 in the clashes on the Monday public holiday.
SUMMARY
If you didn’t already know, the NRL is based in Sydney focused, never more evident than scheduling a game which excludes a lot of working Queensland from watching live. We guess it is only a game between two bottom four sides from Sydney anyway.
MAJOR TEAM NEWS?
Dylan Napa probably won’t play, and he probably won’t be the only Origin withdrawal. Despite being five days after the game. Origin period sucks.
ONE REASON TO WATCH
You live in NSW.
Under 37.5 Total Match Points @ $1.90
