State of Origin is here, which is great for the big interstate clash, but usually terrible for the NRL competition and our Alternative NRL Round 12 Predictions.
At least this season, and last season, the impact of the State of Origin is at a minimum, with just two dreaded four game split round weeks. Hopefully by next season we can have all three as standalone Sunday games, with Pacific Tests making up for the lack of league action on the other days.
Instead of moaning about the split rounds, we decided to use them as a method of tipping NRL winners. More on that soon.
But now we have our regular predictions based on a barely interesting stat or something completely unrelated to rugby league. Or a handful of barely interesting stat to go with each game. Or some betting advice which is currently at 50% but just profiting for the season.
Our Alternative NRL Round 12 predictions and preview awaits. It’s only four games this week, so no excuses for not watching every minute.
NRL ROUND 12 PREDICTIONS – GURGLER PREDICTIONS
MANLY to beat Penrith
RABBITOHS to beat Parramatta
BULLDOGS to beat Canberra
COWBOYS to beat Titans
TIPPING PROGRESS – 52/88
— Last Week 4/8
BEST BET PROGRESS – 44/88
$1 Season Earnings $89.85 (from $1 bet on all tips)
— Last Week 2/8 — $4.00
NRL ROUND 12 PREDICTIONS – OPPONENT PREDICTIONS – SPLIT ROUND RECORD
MANLY (64%) to beat Penrith (51%)
RABBITOHS (45%) to beat Parramatta (44%)
BULLDOGS (52%) to bear Canberra (49%)
COWBOYS (58%) to beat Titans (44%)
BACKGROUND FOR TIPS – Since we in Split Round territory, how interesting to see which teams do best during split rounds.
We have every game in a Split Round for the past 10 seasons, and whichever team has the best winning % gets the tip.
OPPOSITION TIPPING PROGRESS – 51/88
Week 1 – First Round Form – 5/8
Week 2 – Best Supported Club in 2018 – 5/8
Week 3 – Club Memberships – 3/8
Week 4 – April Fool’s Day – 3/8
Week 5 – NFL Teams – 4/8
Week 6 – Full Moon – 6/8
Week 7 – Anzac Day – 4/8
Week 8 – NRL Supporters – 5/8
Week 9 – Suncorp Stadium – 5/8
Week 10 – Game of Thrones – 5/8
Week 11 – Election Results – 6/8
NRL ROUND 12 PREDICTIONS PREVIEW – MATCH BY MATCH THOUGHTS
Here is our short game by game preview for the big weekend ahead. We couldn’t offer up our NRL ROUND 11 predictions without explaining ourselves a little further.
THU 7:50pm – PENRITH PANTHERS v MANLY SEA EAGLES
Head to Head since 1998 – Penrith 17 Manly 15
Last Season: Manly 24 Penrith 28 — Penrith 10 Manly 18
BARELY INTERESTING FACT
Penrith have won both of the previous split round games Manly.
SUMMARY
Penrith broke many a tipping competition last weekend with their upset win over Parramatta, but truth be told, they were just less awful than the Eels, but a win is a win. Talking of wins, many were surprised Manly didn’t do that last weekend, leaving many tipsters at 0/2. Manly were surprised by the Titans, which was a more surprising result than the Panthers win.
MAJOR TEAM NEWS?
Both teams lose key players to State of Origin. In Penrith’s case, Nathan Cleary is replaced by a returning James Maloney, who will watch Origin on TV this year. The machine that is Jake Trbojevic is replaced by Corey Waddell.
ONE REASON TO WATCH
Despite some key absences, take a look at each team’s starting props. Good times.
Manly to win 1-12 @ $3.25
FRI 7:55pm – PARRAMATTA EELS v SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Head to Head since 1998 – Parramatta 16 Rabbitohs 15
Last Season: Parramatta 24 South Sydney 42 — South Sydney 26 Parramatta 20
BARELY INTERESTING FACT
Parramatta have won the last three Friday games between these sides and 8/10 since 1998 at the old Parramatta Stadium.
SUMMARY
Table topping Souths have been decimated by State of Origin callups. A deserving by product for some quality individuals. Cody Walker’s Origin call up cements his as one of the great modern day rugby league stories. Parramatta lost their first game at their new stadium last weekend, and could hardly have played worse. The question is how Souths cope with all their absences. Although, the James Roberts that was never going to Souths is indeed doing just that.
MAJOR TEAM NEWS?
Four of Souths’ best are out, but it gives a chance for those down the pecking order at the Burrow. Whilst not being Damian Cook is a disadvantage, Billy Brittain is a great player and a tackling machine from memory of his Intrust Super days. Others including Connor Tracey and Adam Doueihi get a real chance to shine, Doueihi has already done so in his brief NRL career, and there’s a lot of buzz around Tracey. And there’s still the Burgess boys.
Some big names for Parramatta are named in the reserves, but firebrand Kane Evans returns to the starting line up. Blake Ferguson has been given the chance to shine back on the wing again. One might think the centre switch won’t happen again for a while.
ONE REASON TO WATCH
There’s some missing players for Souths, but watching players getting a chance is great, and the Burgess boys are still around. Parramatta too still have excitement in Clint Gutherson, and the entertainment in Blake Ferguson.
Souths to win @ $2.25
SAT 7:30pm – CANTERBURY BULLDOGS v CANBERRA RAIDERS
Head to Head since 1998 – Bulldogs 18 Canberra 17
Last Season: Bulldogs 28 Canberra 32 — Canberra 26 Bulldogs 10
BARELY INTERESTING FACT
Canberra have won five of the six matches between these sides that kick off at 7:30pm.
SUMMARY
Sadly for the Bulldogs they dropped back to last after Round 11 as they lost and Penrith won, but Canberra, who were flying high a month ago, have now lost their last three. Canberra are still fifth, but are in a bunch of eight teams within two points.
MAJOR TEAM NEWS?
Four out for Canberra – three for State of Origin and a bonus Josh Hodgson too. Some exciting names to come in though – Sebastian Kris is a name to watch, Aidan Sezer gets a chance in the absence of Jack Wighton, and John Bateman has been named in the reserves. Canterbury had to replace Dylan Napa and five come into the squad to do that.
ONE REASON TO WATCH
Because it is Saturday night’s only game?
Bulldogs +6.5 start @ $1.47
SUN 4:05pm – GOLD COAST TITANS v NORTH QLD COWBOYS
Head to Head since 1998 – North Qld 15 – Gold Coast 8
Last Season: Gold Coast 26 North Queensland 30 — North Queensland 26 Gold Coast 14
BARELY INTERESTING FACT
North Queensland have won the last seven matches between these sides.
SUMMARY
A nice all Queensland derby to finish the split round. Although you can certainly tell it is Origin time when they are two non Sydney time on a Sunday afternoon for Channel Nein. Both teams won last weekend, but both teams are paying for their previous season’s sins and sit outside the top eight.
MAJOR TEAM NEWS?
Discussed below with Jake Clifford, but he’s not only one. A whole pile on Intrust Super Cup players get their chance.
ONE REASON TO WATCH
Jake Clifford gets another go at the back, he may be mildly insulted that a regular prop is the answer in the halves instead of him. Things haven’t gone much better in the Intrust Super Cup either as his team the Northern Pride haven’t won a games since Round 2. Jason Taumalolo is still around to steamroll the Titans. for fans to admire too. And the 1,6,9 for the Titans is worth watching too. Nothing wrong with Tyrone Roberts last week – as he scored well in our Round 11 Team of the Week.
Cowboys to win @ $2.05
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