Premier League Predictions Week 38 – Gurgler v Last Day Form

The end of the 2018-19 Premier League season is here, and to sign off a big year we have our Premier League Predictions Week 38.

Every week we offer up our Premier League predictions, along with a mini preview of each match, with a few interesting stats thrown in too.

After boldly tipping both Liverpool and Man City to draw last weekend, we get our last chance for redemption.

We also put our tips up against a competitor, usually not human though, and based on some football stat or general life. This week our tipping opponent is based on the average points per game for each EPL side on the last day of the season.

It’s a lot like the BBC’s Lawros tips, but better. Arguably.

Premier League Predictions Week 38 – Gurgler v Last Day Form

Average points per game on last day in brackets.

MAN CITY (2.6) to beat Brighton (1.7)

DRAW – Burnley (2.8) v Arsenal (2.8)

CRYSTAL PALACE (1.6) to beat Bournemouth (1.2)

NEWCASTLE (1.9) to beat Fulham (1.6)

LEICESTER (2.5) to beat Chelsea (2.4)

WOLVES (2.1) to beat Liverpool (1.7)

MAN UTD (2.4) to beat Cardiff (1.8)

SOUTHAMPTON (2.0) to beat Huddersfield (1.7)

SPURS (2.1) to beat Everton (1.9)

WATFORD (2.1) to beat West Ham (1.9)

TIPS BACKGROUND: Since we’re finally at the last day, it is a great opportunity to use each team’s last day form as a way to pick winner.

Whoever has the higher last day of the season points average per game gets the tip for this season too.

Interestingly, the top two for last day form (Burnley and Arsenal) play each other And the two worst (Crystal Palace and Bournemouth) also play each other.

GURGLER PREMIER LEAGUE Predictions Week 38

Now our tips. Based on our opinion, research, study and ignorance. (In no particular order)

MAN CITY to beat Brighton (2-0)

DRAW – Burnley v Arsenal (1-1)

DRAW – Crystal Palace v Bournemouth (2-2)

DRAW – Fulham v Newcastle (1-1)

LEICESTER to beat Chelsea (3-2)

LIVERPOOL to beat Wolves (2-0)

CARDIFF to beat Man Utd (1-0)

SOUTHAMPTON to beat Huddersfield (5-0)

SPURS to beat Everton (2-1)

WATFORD to beat West Ham (2-0)

Premier League Predictions Week 38 Mini Match by Match Preview

Here’s a quick run down of every game for Week 36, with a barely interesting stat included for those inclined.

BRIGHTON v MAN CITY

Kick Off: Sunday 3pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Man City 2 Brighton 0

So it has come down to this for the title race. Brighton need to take a point off Man City to give Liverpool a sniff of the title, It isn’t going to happen. As much as we like to convince ourselves that it is going to be a legendary last day head to head, in reality Man City will probably score within 15 minutes and close out the game. Perhaps throw in a Brighton red card.

Brighton have survived, but their manager Chris Hughton probably if you believe the rumours. Might need a change, as they look like most relegation ready for next season out of this year’s teams.

Barely Interesting Fact: Man City have won all three Premier League clashes by 2 goals

BURNLEY v ARSENAL

Kick Off: Sunday 3pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Arsenal 3 Burnley 1

Arsenal are still not mathematically out of the race for the Top Four, but given their away form it seems very and highly unlikely. They first need Spurs to lose, and for themselves to beat Burnley, and turn around an eight goals goal difference. Thankfully they have the Europa League second chance. They have the right manager, who took the title in the same competition three years running with Sevilla.

Burnley have their 40 points, so are safe, and can move down one place to 16th or rise to 14th given last day results. They might have to improve next year with the clubs coming up.

Barely Interesting Fact: The last three games between these sides at Burnley have been won by Arsenal 1-0. And they have conceded and scored the sixth most amount of goals away this season.

CRYSTAL PALACE v BOURNEMOUTH

Kick Off: Sunday 3pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Bournemouth 2 Crystal Palace 1

Two sides in the bottom half of the table that can entertain on their day, but usually more often if they swap the home and away part of this match. Hard to think that these sides are 12th and 13th given that Crystal Palace always feel like their winning lately, and it felt like Bournemouth hadn’t won a game for months not long ago.

Crystal Palace’s away form has been sensational for most of this season, yet they are second last in the home statistics for the season. A win could see them bump off Cardiff for third worst home form. Bournemouth are fourth worst for away points as a % of total points won.

Hopefully there’s an end of term feel and Zaha and co. have a real go, with Wilson and co. responding with even more attack.

Barely Interesting Fact: Crystal Palace’s away form as a % o their total points for the season was 63%. The next best was Leicester at 49%.

FULHAM v NEWCASTLE

Kick Off: Sunday 3pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Newcastle 0 Fulham 0

Way too late in the season Fulham are showing guts, backbone, and the ability to win games. Luckily they will need all of those in the second tier next season, as the Championship is Europe’s toughest league. At a minimum Scott Parker has got himself the job for the start of next season.

Newcastle have been great in the second half of the season, particularly Rondon, and they were great value against Liverpool last weekend. With a little more investment and lot more Benitez they could be a contender for the 7th lace trophy next season.

Barely Interesting Fact: Newcastle haven’t beaten Fulham in London in the six matches. Three results have been 1-0 and two 2-1.

LEICESTER v CHELSEA

Kick Off: Sunday 3pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Chelsea 0 Leicester 1

Leicester almost did the job for Liverpool midweek against Man City, but the signs are certainly there for next season for the Foxes with a full season under Brendan Rodgers. Like Wolves, they really have the potential to break into the top six next season. Given the form of third to sixth in the last few weeks, and possible transfer bans for Chelsea on top of that.

Talking of Chelsea, it is likely to be Eden Hazard’s last game before a move to Real Madrid that has been years in the making. He deserves it, but what shape would that leave Chelsea in if he goes, especially if they can’t recruit.

Barely Interesting Fact: The away side has won six of the last 10 clashes between these sides. With two draws and two home wins the other results.

LIVERPOOL v WOLVES

Kick Off: Sunday 3pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Wolves 0 Liverpool 2

Liverpool need to win this game, but it probably still won’t be enough as they need Brighton to surprise Man City. But stranger things can happen in football, like Liverpool turning around a 3-0 loss in the first leg of the Champions League semi final series against Barcelona. Liverpool snuck home against Newcastle last weekend, and are in the business at the moment of making every game exciting.

A title looks to have gone begging, but a Champions League win just might make up for that.

Wolves deserve their 7th place, and they are a real chance of breaking the top six up. A few more gems like they have unveiled over the past few seasons and they’ll be super competitive. You can argue that they are playing better than some of the top six. And their record against the top six sides is great.

Barely Interesting Fact: No need to panic, but Wolves have beaten Liverpool on two of their last three visits to Anfield. That’s with a much inferior side to the current squad though.

MAN UTD v CARDIFF

Kick Off: Sunday 3pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Cardiff 1 Man Utd 5

Ole Gunnar Solskjær welcomes Cardiff which should bring back good and bad memories. The bad from his stint there where Cardiff were relegated, and the good as it was the first game in charge of Man Utd and they belted Cardiff. If only his team were playing that good still. A clean out of players, and the man who recruited most of them needs to happen, otherwise falling backwards into the clutches of Wolves, Leicester and co. seems more likely than improvement under Ole Gunnar Solskjær.

Cardiff are relegated, and probably not without surprise. But they certainly gave it a better go than Fulham or Huddersfield, and look Championship ready.

Barely Interesting Fact: Cardiff last beat Man Utd in Manchester in 1953, and haven’t scored a goal at Old Trafford since 1961

SOUTHAMPTON v HUDDERSFIELD

Kick Off: Sunday 3pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Huddersfield 1 Southampton 3

Huddersfield have avoided the worst Premier League season ever, but it certainly hasn’t been a great one. But they can slip from the top flight knowing that the mighty Man Utd never beat them at home in two attempts. They look like they could really struggle next season too. They look a lot like Sunderland did when they did the double a few seasons ago.

Despite losing last weekend to the enigma that is West Ham, Southampton can probably say job done in the post Mark Hughes era. We will now get to see the Alpine Klopp Ralph Hassenhuttl get a full season to drag Southampton closer to the top. Early signs are good.

Barely Interesting Fact: Huddersfield didn’t lose to Southampton last season in two games (2 Draws but still). With one game to go away, Huddersfield have scored one goal more away than at home (11 v 10).

SPURS v EVERTON

Kick Off: Sunday 3pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Everton 2 Spurs 6

Outside of the games featuring title challengers, this is probably the game of the weekend.

Spurs come into the game all emotional after their massive Champions League game against Ajax, but it was a super effort, as their whole season has been given the squad size and many playing commitments. But given how out of sorts they looked at Bournemouth after the first leg, one wonders if it will be the same against Everton. They won’t want to sign their season off at the new ground with a loss though.

Everton will be looking for some revenge after the 6-2 flogging earlier in the season was in the middle of an awful slump in form. One that critics of manager Marco Silva claimed was inevitable. But Everton have top four form since the start of March, and a little surprising is that only Man City have conceded fewer goals. Spurs are down in 14th over the same period. Even below Man Utd.

Barely Interesting Fact: Everton last beat Spurs in London in 2008.

WATFORD v WEST HAM

Kick Off: Sunday 3pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: West Ham 0 Watford 2

The most midfield game possible to finish the season – 10th v 11th.

Watford have not gone well since their big FA Cup win over Wolves put them into the final, their form since that game has seen them acquite just 4 points in 5 games. Only better than the bottom three and Arsenal in the same period.

Who knows with West Ham, the Premier League’s hardest side to predict. We’ve spent a season getting it wrong, so won’t start now correcting that.

Barely Interesting Fact: The season is over.

2018-2019 Premier League Tipping Competition Results

THE GURGLER

2018-2019 Tipping Results – 192/370– 52% – (25 Correct Scores)

Last Week Tipping Results –  5/10 

Best – 11/15 Week 32

OPPOSITION

2018-2019 Results – 171/370 – 48%

Week 1 – 6/10 – Week 1 Form from last 5 seasons
Week 2 – 5/10 – Change in Market Value after Transfer Window
Week 3 – 4/10 – Red Cards from last 5 seasons
Week 4 – 7/10 – Form v Post Sir Alex Man Utd
Week 5 – 5/10 – Post International Break Form
Week 6 – 3/10 – Avoiding Russian Spies
Week 7 – 4/10 – Brexit
Week 8 – 6/10 – v Jose Mourinho
Week 9 – 4/10 – Sacked Managers / Tenure
Week 10 – 4/10 – Fighting Managers
Week 11 – 7/10 – v Leicester City
Week 12 – 4/10 – US Mid Term Elections
Week 13 – 6/10 – Claudio Ranieri
Week 14 – 5/10 – Own Goals
Week 15 – 5/10 – Midweek Form (Last 5 Seasons)
Week 16 – 2/10 – Hate
Week 17 – 4/10 – Dangerous Nickname
Week 18 – 5/10 – Christmas Shopping
Week 19 – 4/10 – Boxing Day Form
Week 20 – 7/10 – 2018 Form
Week 21 – 1/10 – New Year’s Eve
Week 22 – 7/10 – January Form
Week 23 – 3/10 – Traffic
Week 24 – 2/10 – Post FA Cup 3rd / 4th Round Form
Week 25 – 4/10 – Happiness
Week 26 – 6/10 – Valentine’s Days
Week 27 – 6/10 – Divorce
Week 28 – 5/10 – Sack Race
Week 29 – 8/10 – Wages
Week 30 – 5/10 – Recycling
Week 31 – 1/5 – Gossip
Week 32 – 10/15 – Expected Goals
Week 33 – 2/6 – UK Breweries
Week 34 – 6/11 – Who got more to play for?
Week 35 – 7/14 – Fantasy Football Points
Week 36 – 2/10 – Train Stations
Week 37 – 5/10 – Sleep