Midweek Premier League Predictions Week 28 – Gurgler v Sack Race

Time for some more midweek Premier League action, it’s time for some more of our Premier League Predictions Week 28.

Every week we offer up our Premier League predictions, along with a mini preview of each match, with a few best bets in an alternative Premier League preview.

We also put our tips up against a competitor, usually not human though, and based on some football stat or general life. This week our tipping opponent is based on the odds of the next manager sacked, after Claude Puel became yet another victim of an underperforming Premier League side.

It’s a lot like the BBC’s Lawros tips, but better. Arguably.

Premier League Predictions Week 28 – Gurgler v Sack Race

TIPS BACKGROUND: With Claude Puel being the latest manager sacked, and Sarri at Chelsea getting ready to disappoint pun headline writers everywhere by getting the arse at Chelsea, it’s a good time to use odds for the next manager sacked to determine some Premier League winners.

Our theory is, that the shorter the odds of the manager being sacked, the worse the team are playing, and the less likelihood of them winning. So the team with the higher odds of their manager being the next sacked gets the tip.

GURGLER PREMIER LEAGUE Predictions Week 28

But first our tips. Based on our opinion, research, study and ignorance. (In no particular order)

CARDIFF to beat Everton (2-1)
WOLVES to beat Huddersfield (3-0)
LEICESTER to beat Brighton (2-0)
NEWCASTLE to beat Burnley (3-1)
DRAW – Southampton v Fulham (2-2)
ARSENAL to beat Bournemouth (3-0)
MAN UTD to beat Crystal Palace (2-1)
SPURS to beat Chelsea (2-0)
LIVERPOOL to beat Watford (4-2)
MAN CITY to beat West Ham (5-0)

PREMIER LEAGUE Predictions Week 28 – Manager Sack Race

Odds of the team’s manager to be the next sacked in brackets. Odds courtesy of Unibet.com.au

CARDIFF ($21) to beat Everton ($17)
WOLVES ($67) to beat Huddersfield (NA)
LEICESTER (No Market) to beat BRIGHTON ($51)
DRAW – Newcastle ($15) v Burnley ($15)
SOUTHAMPTON ($41) to beat Fulham ($8)
BOURNEMOUTH ($67) to beat Arsenal ($51)
MAN UTD ($81) to beat Crystal Palace ($41)
SPURS ($81) to beat Chelsea ($1.20)
LIVERPOOL ($151) to beat Watford ($67)
MAN CITY ($151) to beat West Ham ($51)

Premier League Predictions Week 28 Mini Match by Match Preview

Here’s a quick run down of every game for Week 28, with a barely interesting stat and a best bet included for those inclined.

CARDIFF v EVERTON

Kick Off: Tuesday 7:45pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Everton 1 Cardiff 0 

Cardiff should be smarting after their 5-1 pantsing at home to Watford ruined a two game winning streak which saw them sneak out of the bottom three. It was the equal biggest home defeat of the season along side Arsenal beating Fulham 5-1 and coincidentally Everton beating Burnley. Cardiff are still out of danger in fourth last, but just one point above Southampton, and the four goal margin extended the gap in goal difference to nine. Strange as Cardiff’s home form was decent enough for a lowly ranked side (14th best in EPL).

Everton had the weekend off thanks to the League Cup final, but they average less than a point a game away from home, and have lost four of their past six games away and overall. 

Barely Interesting Fact: Cardiff are unbeaten at home to Everton in the league since 1952. They have only lost to Everton twice at home ever.

HUDDERSFIELD v WOLVES

Kick Off: Tuesday 7:45pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Wolves 0 Huddersfield 2

Huddersfield surprised most, especially Wolves earlier in the season when they registered one of their only two wins for the season, but Huddersfield have actually won their last four matches against Wolves. A second win looks very unlikely as Huddersfield made Newcastle look like world beaters on the weekend. Albeit hamstrung by being a man down for a large part of the match. 

Wolves fell behind Watford in the race for best of the rest on goal difference after drawing at Bournemouth, which is still a decent result as the Cherries are far more useful at home than on the road. With Watford playing Liverpool, Wolves have the chance to leap over the 40 point mark and back into 7th.

Barely Interesting Fact: Huddersfield have actually won 14 of 21 clashes with Wolves since 1992, with another four draws thrown in for good measure. Or Huddersfield have only scored 1 more goal than points scored at home this season. 6 goals, 5 points in 14 games.

LEICESTER v BRIGHTON

Kick Off: Tuesday 7:45pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Brighton 1 Leicester 1

So Leicester have done the inevitable and sacked Claude Puel, he managed to prolong his stay after a good run which included a win over Man City, but it ultimately wasn’t enough for the humourless Puel. Brendan Rodgers from Celtic is the favourite to be the new manager, and he would be a gold hiring for all involved. Probably the right time to do it, as Leicester are now 12th and just 8 points from the drop. Losses at home like the one to Crystal Palace, which was the fourth loss in a row at home, would have seen them in the relegation mix before long.

Right in the relegation mix now are Brighton, who are now 16th and three points from the drop. They do have a game in hand, but that is away to Chelsea. And with just two wins away this year they won’t beat Chelsea, and now with the new manager bounce for the Foxes, probably wont beat Leicester either.

Barely Interesting Fact: Leicester have the fourth worst record at home this season, and are the fourth worst team so far in the 2019 calendar year. Continuing the fours, they have lost four in a row at home.

NEWCASTLE v BURNLEY

Kick Off: Tuesday 8pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Burnley 1 Newcastle 2

A clash which features two sides in form despite their lowly league position. Burnley are on the second longest undefeated streak in the league with eight games (Man Utd 1st with 10 games). This has seen them climb all the way to 14th and two points ahead of this week’s opponents. A defeat against Spurs on the weekend was surprising but deserved. Ashley Barnes has scored six goals and two assists in his last ten games, Chris Wood has scored six goals in his last eight.

Newcastle’s record signing Miguel Almiron showed some real quality in his first home game for Newcastle, and the Newcastle fans have every justification to be excited about his prospects after the weekend. Goals and assists will surely come.

Barely Interesting Fact: Newcastle have a winning streak at home to Burnley of five games, they last lost in 1976.

SOUTHAMPTON v FULHAM

Kick Off: Wednesday 7:45pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Fulham 3 Southampton 2

Fulham look doomed after their West Ham loss, where they had enough luck and chances early to be 2-0 up. With their dreadful away record, which has seen no wins thus far, Fulham look like they don’t have enough to stay up. Despite the zero wins, they seem more likely to pick up a point on the road, as they face Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City at home still.

Helping Fulham in their cause is that Southampton have terrible results at home, they are the only side to average less than a point a game at home (Huddersfield being the other). They did beat Southampton earlier in the season, which was their first win in six games against the Saints.

Barely Interesting Fact: Fulham have only beaten Southampton away once, in the old 2nd division in 1935.

ARSENAL v BOURNEMOUTH

Kick Off: Wednesday 7:45pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Bournemouth 1 Arsenal 2

This should be an easy one to guess. Arsenal have lost just once at home this season, and have won ten games. And their opponents have lost eight in a row on the road now.

Arsenal’s home form record leaves them behind just Man City and Liverpool as the best home side. They are importantly ahead of the other clubs in the race for fourth place too.

AS mentioned before, Bournemouth’s away record is terrible. Whilst they are conceding so many goals away from home, they have managed just 1 goal on the road in 

Barely Interesting Fact: Only winless Fulham have conceded more goals at home than Bournemouth.

CRYSTAL PALACE v MAN UTD

Kick Off: Wednesday 8pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Draw 0-0

While the wins may have dried up for Man Utd, they are still going good enough to shutdown the Liverpool juggernaut. The 0-0 wasn’t vert entertaining, but effective. For Man Utd that is. They are still unbeaten in the League since he departure of Mourinho, and number one in form of all the teams in form over the season since Jose left.

Crystal Palace have the 3rd worst home record this season, and the goals scored (9 goals) is the second worst. Their goals conceded is the fifth best of Premier League.with Spurs (12 goals in 13 games).

Barely Interesting Fact: Crystal Palace have conceded 12 goals in 13 games, 5th best and as many Spurs on the road. 

CHELSEA v SPURS

Kick Off: Wednesday 8pm UK

Chelsea come into the game after a heartbreaking loss to Man City in the League Cup final, where the big talking point was between Sarri and Kepa, after the Chelsea goalkeeper wanted to stay on against his bosses wishes. Sarri looks set to be the next manager fired, and he is the red-hot favourite for the boot at the moment. Which gave us the idea for this week’s opponent.

Spurs suffered on the weekend as well, beaten 2-1 by Burnley which will probably rule out a title challenge that only they believed anyway. Harry Kane returned, and Harry Kane scored but it wasn’t enough. Kane does score in every second game against Chelsea, and Eden Hazard almost does the same for Chelsea against Spurs.

Barely Interesting Fact: This will be the fourth meeting between these sides this season. 

LIVERPOOL v WATFORD

Kick Off: Wednesday 8pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: Watford 0 Liverpool 3

Liverpool need to get back to winning ways, as their three draws from the last four league matches means Man City are now the favourites for the title. Keeping the red hot Man Utd to 0-0 is not a bad result, but they need more if they are going to break their title drought. Perhaps a visit by Watford, whom they have had some good home wins recently is the perfect game to get back on track.

Watford come into the games on the back of flogging Cardiff 5-1 in Cardiff, and have temporarily grabbed the best of the rest 7th place. A trip to Wembley could also be a possibility if they win their next FA Cup clash too, in what is turning out to be a real success story.

A worry for Watford is Mo Salah, who has six goals and two assists in just three games against them.

Barely Interesting Fact: The last two seasons have seen some big wins  for Liverpool at home to Watford, 5-0 and 6-1.

MAN CITY v WEST HAM

Kick Off: Wednesday 8pm UK
Previous 2018-19 Result: West Ham 0 Man City 4

It’s been a real adventure for Man City across four different competitions – beat Chelsea 6-0 in the league, followed by outlasting FA Cup upset merchants Newport County in Wales, then coming behind to win 3-2 against Schalke in the Champions League, and finishing it all off with a League Cup trophy win over Chelsea. They have won one of a potential four trophies. 

West Ham are in decent form, with a win against a misfiring Fulham, and two draws (once against Liverpool) are a good sign. They seem harder to beat, although mistakes like the one in the very first minute against Fulham will certainly be punished with a better side taking advantage.

Barely Interesting Fact: West Ham didn’t lose to Man City in 15/16. They did lose the subsequent six games in a row by 22-3.

INTERESTED IN FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE?

Follow our mini FPL Preview for Week 28.

2018-2019 Premier League Tipping Competition Results

THE GURGLER

2018-2019 Tipping Results – 139/269 – 52% – (15 Correct Scores)

Last Week Tipping Results –  3/8

Best – 7/10 Week 1, 3, 4, 7, 15, 25

OPPOSITION

2018-2019 Results – 120/269 – 44%

Week 1 – 6/10 – Week 1 Form from last 5 seasons
Week 2 – 5/10 – Change in Market Value after Transfer Window
Week 3 – 4/10 – Red Cards from last 5 seasons
Week 4 – 7/10 – Form v Post Sir Alex Man Utd
Week 5 – 5/10 – Post International Break Form
Week 6 – 3/10 – Avoiding Russian Spies
Week 7 – 4/10 – Brexit
Week 8 – 6/10 – v Jose Mourinho
Week 9 – 4/10 – Sacked Managers / Tenure
Week 10 – 4/10 – Fighting Managers
Week 11 – 7/10 – v Leicester City
Week 12 – 4/10 – US Mid Term Elections
Week 13 – 6/10 – Claudio Ranieri
Week 14 – 5/10 – Own Goals
Week 15 – 5/10 – Midweek Form (Last 5 Seasons)
Week 16 – 2/10 – Hate
Week 17 – 4/10 – Dangerous Nickname
Week 18 – 5/10 – Christmas Shopping
Week 19 – 4/10 – Boxing Day Form
Week 20 – 7/10 – 2018 Form
Week 21 – 1/10 – New Year’s Eve
Week 22 – 7/10 – January Form
Week 23 – 3/10 – Traffic
Week 24 – 2/10 – Post FA Cup 3rd / 4th Round Form
Week 25 – 4/10 – Happiness
Week 26 – 6/11 – Valentine’s Days
Week 28 – 2/8 – Divorce